Yes, unfavorable wind shear is in its way before it becomes more favorable, but by that time it’s forecast to be strung out energy near the islands that gets absorbed by the next tropical wave.
-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER -
April 2024 Weather Video of the Month Post your nominations now!
2019 Hurricane Season
- Thread starter Mike S
- Start date
Yes, unfavorable wind shear is in its way before it becomes more favorable, but by that time it’s forecast to be strung out energy near the islands that gets absorbed by the next tropical wave.
The tropics are about to go rampant! Models are predicting multiple storms now.
Models show a lot of tropical systems across the globe. Several in the Atlantic, and several in the Pacific.
Last edited:
Invest 97L: Not going to start a thread for this one unless models start to change its course. Mostly out to sea according to the current models. Hope you all had a great weekend.
Kory
Member
- Messages
- 4,928
- Location
- Tuscaloosa, Alabama
I’m thinking the current prevailing pattern will protect the U.S. for the most part. Unless we get something in the Gulf or Western Caribbean, persistent troughs on the East Coast will scoop anything away from the mainland.
tennessee storm chaser
Member
yeah. Current pattern looks extremely boring. Very hot and very dry moving forward
Kory
Member
- Messages
- 4,928
- Location
- Tuscaloosa, Alabama
We have to see if there is going to be a pattern change to see if these long tracking systems will pose a threat to the U.S. Right now, model consensus recurves Jerry with an impact to Bermuda in addition to Humberto. If we can get a system to limp along into the Western/Central Caribbean, chances of the U.S. impact increase exponentially. And we are about to see a big burst of activity.
I'll take a weak system into the Central Gulf Coast with lots of rain. Most of the Southeast is slipping into worsening drought.
I'll take a weak system into the Central Gulf Coast with lots of rain. Most of the Southeast is slipping into worsening drought.
tennessee storm chaser
Member
im not seeing a pattern change anytime soon. Unfortunately .. October looming... that’s the driest month on average whole year ... not good... my yard bout burnt up... no sense in mowing now...
Sorta like playing Battleship out there...
No quite future ahead for the tropics. We may very well be dealing with a US threat beginning in October.
tennessee storm chaser
Member
overall. Ridge should be strong to protect east coast ... if. If something can develop in gulf. May see a landfall from that region
majorhurricane1703
Member
- Messages
- 73
- Location
- United States
We need to watch Karen this week. An out to sea solution is not a 100% given as of yet. While I do think this storm will eventually go out to sea, it’s also taking unorthodox path telling me it may behave in an unorthodox way. Time will tell.
majorhurricane1703
Member
- Messages
- 73
- Location
- United States
Kory
Member
- Messages
- 4,928
- Location
- Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Yeah, this one is a bit different with many moving parts. I don’t think a total out to sea solution is in the cards right now. Jerry and the new system off the coast of Africa will influence the building ridge over the eastern CONUS. Karen may become trapped beneath that like many GFS and Euro solutions show...and head west.
Weatherphreak
Member
- Messages
- 352
- Location
- Huntsville
GFS has been showing a pretty substantial looking storm in the Caribbean at the end of the last two runs. Will be something to keep an eye on. I’d imagine water temps will be sufficient into mid October in the gulf.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A broad area of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche, is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible, and a
tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the
western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving
generally northeastward. Regardless of development, this system
could produce gusty winds, rainfall, and rough surf along portions
of the northern Gulf Coast Friday and Saturday. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A broad area of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche, is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible, and a
tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the
western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving
generally northeastward. Regardless of development, this system
could produce gusty winds, rainfall, and rough surf along portions
of the northern Gulf Coast Friday and Saturday. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
warneagle
Member
At least y’all will probably get some rain from it.
Kory
Member
- Messages
- 4,928
- Location
- Tuscaloosa, Alabama
It’s going to be highly sheared. Doubt we get much across most of AL.
warneagle
Member
This is definitely something to keep an eye on. Not of US relevance but certainly interesting from the perspective of weather geekery.
Not going to lie... I have never heard of this phenomenon
