Kory
Member
Haha yeah. I hate these sneaky early morning events.
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/26-5/1/17
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
- Start date
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- severe weather
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Sounds like jan 23 2012
I still can't get over how unfounded that 15% TOR and mention of tornadic supercells was, especially after several back to back overzealous outlooks that did not verify. An outlook like today's should have never been issued with shear vectors parallel to the boundary. I always thought that was a fairly basic concept. This in combination with the April 5 bust makes it seem like the SPC has just been going all out when there is a setup with good thermo, and just sort of glazing over obviously unfavorable kinematics. I just don't get it.
gangstonc
Member
I feel like storms will have a bit of trouble becoming surface based.
Kory
Member
That is probably the biggest precluding factor to a larger event, but rapid WAA right ahead of the boundary should allow enough destabilization to get surface based storms along and south of I-20/59....
they may, but there is also a chance they briefly will for just enough time
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Blizzzzznado
Member
I think it is the case they rather have the public aware and nothing big happen, compared to the reverse, as seen with Huffines from 6 years ago on the archive thread that is running. He got destroyed for underplaying what was about to happen on April 27. Regardless, the SPC has been overplaying way too much this year and would have been fine sticking with an Enhanced risk at best today. That is why this forum, among others, are great to read through leading up to and during an event. I don't trust one source as the absolute on what is going to happen. I know very little on what goes on behind the scenes or keep track, but I wonder who or how many people come together at the SPC when they put out their convective outlooks.
gangstonc
Member
I agree. It looks like there may be a window.
xJownage
Member
Friday still looks like a moderately threatening day, although not nearly as robust as it once was. Sat, on the other hand...
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Xenesthis
Guest
How does Saturday and Sundays threat look ATM
GA Stormchaser
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Looks like another severe wx threat on Sun, including possibilities of tornadoes. Not a big threat at the moment, but bears watching. Instability Params look on the weak side, but may be underplayed.
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Xenesthis
Guest
Kory
Member
It is the nature of the trough that is giving us the weaker instability. There are also some VBV issues on Sunday. The trough closes off and becomes too amplified, leading to warmer mid-level temps, and SSW flow in the mid levels. I do think we still have a severe wx threat Sunday, but it will likely come in the form of a QLCS as the main threat....
Winds of spring
Member
Huffines = backlash to dashing Dan Satterfield.
This is near Birmingham later tonight..
http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2017042618_015_33.55--86.81.png
http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2017042618_015_33.55--86.81.png
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Xenesthis
Guest
Ouch... hope that doesn't verify
Fortunately, that is right before the front, so those conditions do not last too long.
Kory
Member
A lot of times in Dixie when relying on forcing from the boundary and not getting height falls across the whole warm sector with discrete convection, a lot of the dynamics don't get used. But, there is definitely an increasing threat overnight....
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Xenesthis
Guest
We all know night time tornadoes are the killers
SilentShadow87
Member
I have a friend who lives in Memphis who has quite a severe weather phobia, and I'm trying to explain that the threat isn't worth having a panic attack over but shouldn't be ignored either...This person thinks I'm overly conservative because I told them that 12/23/2015 wouldn't be a major event, but I don't want to lull them into ignoring the warnings from actual mets either.