Severe WX April 29-May 2nd, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

[buckeye05]

Sorry to derail discussion of today's event, but Ben Holcomb's video from Andover is just incredible.

 

[MNTornadoGuy]

 

[Equus]

I believe they are tagging the destroyed house DOD 9 (all walls down) instead of 10 (swept clean, lowest bound 165) since the wall connection was substandard and the debris wasn't really swept, which lies between the lower bound and expected for that DOD; ironically tree damage and the pet store are also tagged 155 (right at expected for max DOD of metal building system and well above expected for max DOD of hardwood trees) so three different indicators the same speed lol

Still not a fan of homes that are completely leveled being mid EF3 but it is what it is

 

[eric11]

I was curious why they labeled the John's Animal Pet office as a MBS? I think it's more like a barn actually

 

[buckeye05]

Regarding the failure mode, it’s alarming how often we see this issue with walls nailed directly into the subfloor. Why has nobody invented an anchor bolt that extends all the way through the subfloor? Does such a thing exist, and is it even possible?

 

[eric11]

Sorry to derail discussion of today's event, but Ben Holcomb's video from Andover is just incredible.

It reminds of Hank's Madill OK EF2 video

 

[Equus]

Some of the damage indicators are kind of nebulous to be honest, there are some odd choices on the current iteration of the scale that makes it hard to determine what a lot of buildings fall into; hoping the update consolidates some of them (i think that's the plan, the multiple school DIs being merged and single/double wide mobile homes merged iirc) and expands others - as it stands I can never figure out which DI a ton of civic and commercial buildings fall into

 

[Equus]

Aaand KTLX is down, impeccable timing

 

[OHWX97]

Aaand KTLX is down, impeccable timing

That's a shame, but regardless, I think we'll likely get more use out of KVNX today.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Echos going up

 

[OHWX97]

Just a tiny little step below being a PDS watch.

 

[TornadoFan]

Tornado watch is up. 90/70 probs

 

[Bevo]

Just a tiny little step below being a PDS watch.

View attachment 13790

Wow. What probabilities define a PDS?

Regardless, Stay safe, everyone in the watch area.

 

[xJownage]

Those probs seem VERY bullish given the significant problems the CF crashing provides with regards to storm mode. Maybe they're anticipating development slightly further south into west/central OK?

 

[OHWX97]

Wow. What probabilities define a PDS?

Regardless, Stay safe, everyone in the watch area.

I would assume an 80% probability or greater for 1 or more strong tornadoes, but I'm not exactly sure about that.

 

[Equus]

I think minimum for a PDS is 80% for significant tornadoes yeah; surprised they're going 70% given lingering questions about the speed of the cold front and narrow window of opportunity but I guess the parameter space is enough to make them go for it

 

[Sawmaster]

I was curious why they labeled the John's Animal Pet office as a MBS? I think it's more like a barn actually

Agreed. I've seen metal buildings with that shape (note the peak) but I see no metal sheeting, beams, columns, or purilns anywhere in the pics and I do see what are clearly wood truss and wall components similar to barn construction as I've already commented on. Someone's reality check seems to have bounced and I hope it's not mine!

Phil

 

[OHWX97]

The supercell SE of Dodge City, KS is getting that look.

 

[OHWX97]

Velocity is really starting to ramp up near Bucklin, KS. Tornado likely imminent.

 

[Tennie]

Velocity is really starting to ramp up near Bucklin, KS. Tornado likely imminent.

That hook is really curling up alright.