Models still differ slightly regarding the track of the
sfc low as it
moves to our south, and this has big implications on the short term
forecast. Consensus is that the
sfc front will stall somewhere across
the forecast area, thus a
thermal gradient between sub-freezing and
above freezing temperatures will largely dictate precip type. Models
continue to indicate that sub-freezing temperatures will make it at
least to the Tennessee/Alabama state line, leading to some form of
wintry precipitation Thursday morning. Another item of low confidence
is the start time of the precip Thursday morning, with the
GFS being
slightly faster than the Euro and the
NAM.
Looking at wet-bulb temps,
sub-freezing temperature columns look fairly promising north of the
AL/TN state line throughout the event on Thursday, and looks to be
primarily a snow event for that portion of the forecast region. A
quick 1-2" of snow could cause hazardous travel conditions by
reducing visibilities and causing roadways to become slick. While
confidence in impacts is fairly low, believe the best chance for
travel impacts Thursday will be along and north of the TN/AL state
line.