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February 2018 Discussion

Kory

Kory

Member
What looks like an active start to the month, several chances of rain over the next week or so. Extreme drought conditions have been introduced and are expanding, so the coming 2-3" of rain will be very welcomed.
 
Also, I've looked over some 12z data. 12z Euro would actually feature some strong to severe storms Tuesday night into Wednesday. Other modeling looks less coherent with the trough leaving some of the energy behind. Just something to keep an eye on...
 
This made my day... Should we officially celebrate Numerical Weather Prediction Day on TalkWeather?

 
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The EURO was interesting. An enhance risk look of severe weather, but not much support from other modeling. Worth watching to see if the GFS or CMC come on board.
 
It is beginning to garner the attention of the SPC. Confidence on a solution is very low now due to varying model output. But the trend to dig the trough deeper in the Inter-Mountain West seem to be gaining traction. Remember, the cold season around here only needs marginal instability if given strong shear. Euro seems to be depicting that.

Latest medium-range model guidance suggests a significant short-wave
trough may dig a bit farther south into the Four Corners region,
early next week, than previous model runs suggested. While the
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian all support this trend, the ECMWF is the most
aggressive with height falls into the southern Rockies/High Plains
region which would likely support a stronger lee surface low over
northwest TX late day4 into the day5 period. If the ECMWF is
correct, the prospect for greater moisture/instability returning to
eastern OK/north TX ahead of the short wave will increase
considerably along with the threat for potential robust convection.
However, semi-persistent northwesterly flow regime has stubbornly
refused to retrograde appreciably this winter, and the GFS/Canadian
support a less amplified short wave. Given these uncertainties
severe predictability will remain low early next week. Although,
convective probabilities will increase markedly across the Arklatex
region by Tuesday ahead of this system.
Click to expand...
 
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Good write up by the SPC for next Tuesday. The EURO was again a pretty stout severe event.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 020746
SPC AC 020746

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2018

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Latest medium-range model guidance suggests a significant short-wave
trough may dig a bit farther south into the Four Corners region,
early next week, than previous model runs suggested. While the
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian all support this trend, the ECMWF is the most
aggressive with height falls into the southern Rockies/High Plains
region which would likely support a stronger lee surface low over
northwest TX late day4 into the day5 period. If the ECMWF is
correct, the prospect for greater moisture/instability returning to
eastern OK/north TX ahead of the short wave will increase
considerably along with the threat for potential robust convection.
However, semi-persistent northwesterly flow regime has stubbornly
refused to retrograde appreciably this winter, and the GFS/Canadian
support a less amplified short wave. Given these uncertainties
severe predictability will remain low early next week. Although,
convective probabilities will increase markedly across the Arklatex
region by Tuesday ahead of this system.

..Darrow.. 02/02/2018
 
Much needed.

TizywhZ.gif
 
Agreed. This is the latest drought map. Central Alabama could really use that rain.

20180130_AL_text.jpg
 
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The entire US needs a good soaking rain. The amount of land covered in the drought update across the country is absolutely riduclious. You could draw a line from Savannah to Los Angeles and be in drought conditions the entire length of said line. It's why I despise this semi-permanent western ridge/eastern trough pattern. It's absolutely terrible for anything other than cold and dry weather.
 
Not overly excited about snow prospects here in the mountains for the next 2-3 weeks. Pattern went from looking great to absolute crap in about 3 days. Maybe we'll swing back the other way.

Been a good winter so far regardless, definitely much better than the last 2 years.
 
We got quite the deluge overnight Saturday into Sunday. Widespread 2-3" for West/Central Alabama.

DGffz5k.png


Things will be ramping up even more with another widespread 2-4" over the next week. We may begin to deal with some flooding issues given the pattern we're in.

KU3myVT.gif
 
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Impressive temperature gradient in the state.

48 degrees Muscle Shoals
69 degrees Birmingham
77 degrees Montgomery

I love being on the warm side!
 
We've been overperforming with highs on warmer days. We hit 70 today and that was several degrees above forecast.
 
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Kory said:
We've been overperforming with highs on warmer days. We hit 70 today and that was several degrees above forecast.
Click to expand...

We've been stuck in overcast and the upper 40s here. The warm fronts just haven't made it up here this winter. Looking forward to this southeast ridge actually getting pumped up.
 
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