All of this.
What’s really caught my attention with this upcoming threat is that the global models have yet to actually downtrend, something that has been the norm this year.
Sure cams are more accurate than the global models regarding handling of the environment, but you’re really waving the red flag and increasing confidence tenfold when global models don’t drop the ball and agree with cams this close in time.
I’m not too concerned with crapvection as much as CIN, though it seems like the nam only shows that being a limiting factor.
This may finally be the real deal tornado outbreak I fear.
I also agree, there seems to be a pretty good model consensus on the shape of the trough and the lack of downtrending too. For example, here's a look comparing models at 18z on Saturday:
*NOT TRYING TO FEARMONGER* but seeing the shape of the trough, a few examples jumped out to me which I will share below.
Similar to what Andyhb said with a 50kt LLJ in play by 4pm in the plains, bad things tend to happen. I'd like to add that troughs with this neutral/negative tilt ejecting into the Plains tend to lead to bad things happening too. Based on the models, this trough seems like it will have a neutral/negative tilt. However, mesoscale details obviously still have to perfectly come together as well for supercells and tornadoes to occur.
An example of this would be 5/24/11, however, the trough was more amplified, with a strongly negative tilt. The mesoscale details also seemed perfect for this event but we won't know those until the day of, of course.
4/14/12 also had a generally similar trough shape, however, it was a lot more monstrous of a trough than this one and generally had a more positive/neutral tilt to it. Of course, the mesoscale details also aided this event in becoming what it did.
And my last example would be the 5/20/19 "bust" which would be an example where the overall trough is very, very impressive, but the mesoscale details did not aid the event in reaching its potential.
As modeled this event certainly has potential and warrants the D4 30%, and I personally always like looking at historical analogs to examine the range of possibilities. As many others have mentioned the mesoscale details are yet to be seen, and will play a big role in the outcome of any storms.
Would love to hear other's insights on this!