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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - December 8th-10th, 2023

Clancy

Clancy

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Macland, Georgia
Mesoscale Discussion 2313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023

Areas affected...portions of northern Alabama into middle and
eastern Tennessee and southeast Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 715...

Valid 100039Z - 100215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 715 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 715.
Damaging gusts appear to be the main threat, though a couple of
tornadoes remain possible, especially with storms closer to the
TN/AL border. The severe threat may persist eastward into northeast
AL and southeastern TN, where a WW issuance may ultimately be
warranted.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently been merging into a loosely
organized squall line across middle TN into eastern MS and far
northwest AL, with MRMS mosaic radar data showing these storms
percolating in intensity. Low-level shear should remain strong
across the region as a 35+ kt low-level jet overspreads the TN
Valley (per 00Z mesoanalysis). Given linear storm modes, damaging
gusts should become the primary threat into the evening hours.
However, a few discrete cells remain near the AL/TN border, and
these storms have the best chance at producing a couple of tornadoes
into early tonight.

Despite waning buoyancy, the strong deep-layer and low-level shear
should compensate amid 500 J/kg MLCAPE to support some continuance
of severe potential into northeast AL and southeastern TN. Though
damaging gusts may be the main threat, given linear structures, the
elongated and curved hodographs suggest that some tornado potential
will also exist. A downstream Tornado Watch issuance may ultimately
be needed.
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Clancy

Clancy

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Messages
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Location
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Last D1 of the day. Dragged tornado threat eastward and got rid of the 10%.
1702170399067.png
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of producing tornadoes, wind damage
and isolated large hail will continue this evening across parts of
the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley.

...Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/...
The latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis show a
progressive upper-level trough over the Ozarks, with a 50 to 06 knot
mid-level jet evident in southwesterly flow from the mid Mississippi
Valley into the southern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front
is moving southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
Mosaic radar imagery shows a nearly continuous line of strong to
severe thunderstorms ahead of the front from central Kentucky
extending southwestward into north-central Mississippi and central
Louisiana. These storms are located along the western edge of a
weakly to moderately unstable airmass, and near the axis of a 35 to
45 knot low-level jet.

RAP forecast soundings this evening, along the axis of the strongest
low-level flow, from central Mississippi into far southern Tennessee
have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 200 to 300 m2/s2
range. This will continue to be favorable for rotating storms this
evening. As a line of strong to severe storms continues to organize,
a few tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells and bowing
line segments. A tornado threat may also exist with discrete
rotating cells that develop ahead of the line. As the line
progresses eastward, the wind-damage threat will continue, and be
maximized with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. An
isolated large hail threat will exist with supercells but should be
more focused in the southwestern part of the slight where the
strongest instability is located.

Further south into the central Gulf Coast states, from south-central
Mississippi into central Alabama, an isolated severe threat will
continue tonight as low-level flow increases ahead of the cold
front. Moderate instability is forecast to be maintained ahead of
the front as moisture convection continues overnight. As the
southern part of the line moves into this area later tonight, the
potential for wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes is expected to
increase...see MCD 2311.

..Broyles.. 12/10/2023
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MoonBaby

MoonBaby

Knew It Would Happen
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Location
Mccalla, Alabama
cheestaysfly said:
Yeah I think it's really just another twenty minutes, but anything could happen! And I don't want it to. I really appreciate this forum when the weather gets bad.
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I’ve always wanted a tornado shelter. Haven’t bought my forever home yet, but when I do I plan on having one. And I probably would sleep in it during overnight stormy chaos. Don’t blame you at all. This specific storm should move past you before you need to do that though.
 
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