Severe WX Severe Weather Threat July 18 - 21 2023

[JayF]

Interesting Setup for today. This is the time period where we see fewer of these types of setups in the south. I am interested to see how this plays out. Stay Weather Aware y'all.

-Jay

 

[KevinH]

Wind driven ENH…

 

[JayF]

The amount of lightning occurring with this system over Missouri is intense.

https://www.windy.com/-Weather-radar-radar?radar,37.986,-91.752,9

 

[JBishopwx]

Tornado Warning for the Paducah area.

 

[JayF]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely for this general vicinity in Kentucky and Texas, but with Tornado Warnings already in Kentucky, They may need to change this to a Tornado Watch.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[JPWX]

Both the 17z and 18z HRRR runs show a nice MCS moving through Northeast MS.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[Mike S]

HUN is investigating an area near the Monrovia community for potential tornado damage from yesterday afternoon's storm.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Equus]

Very violent motion on that

Assumed this was a bit of a mesoscale accident - the RAP sounding looks fairly marginal - but quickly looking like the RAP isn't representative of the local environment there



The thermo profile lines up fine with the surface obs (dewpoint of 80° just ahead of the storm!) but the simulated hodo and wind profile doesn't line up with what we're seeing on observations; a small but very significant area of low level backing there ahead of that cluster; if we look at the 700mb map...



Yeah, there's our culprit, a rather sharp trough at 700-850mb that has enhanced the flow and backed surface winds. With super low LCLs in an insanely moist and unstable enviro, that's a lot of low and mid level support for a couple shallow but strong tornadoes in that little area

 

[OHWX97]

Those remnant MCV setups are always very dangerous given how insanely difficult they are to forecast. The SPC didn't outline any risk for tornadoes in North Carolina until the 1630 UTC outlook.

 

[Mike S]

HUN is investigating an area near the Monrovia community for potential tornado damage from yesterday afternoon's storm.

EF0. 80mph winds

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Those remnant MCV setups are always very dangerous given how insanely difficult they are to forecast. The SPC didn't outline any risk for tornadoes in North Carolina until the 1630 UTC outlook.

A week ago in Chicagoland was that sort of setup, too.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

 

[Mike S]

EF0. 80mph winds

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[JPWX]

First July tornado in North Carolina non-tropical related since July 23rd, 2019.
First July tornado in North Alabama non-tropical related since July 14th, 2015.

 

[mhou]

Had a crazy lightning storm last night around 5 am, looking to see what's coming our way for later today.