WPAC - Typhoon Gaemi

[lake.effect]

Starting a thread on this for two reasons:

1. It appears likely that this will be a significant typhoon by as soon as next Monday
2. Some massive, globally significant population centers are in the forecast cone (Taipei, Shanghai, Ningbo)

GFS has it boming out to a 921 low just off the coast of Shanghai.

What would the impact of such a storm be on a city like this?

https://img2.chinadaily.com.cn/images/202406/21/66750f72a31095c551b3d66e.jpeg

 

[slenker]

GFS has the WPAC waking up quite a bit in general just after 92W fizzles out. GFS has a 915 mbar super typhoon now.

 

[lake.effect]

GFS has the WPAC waking up quite a bit in general just after 92W fizzles out. GFS has a 915 mbar super typhoon now.

That 915mb low is 92W, breh

 

[slenker]

That 915mb low is 92W, breh

I know. I was mostly pointing out that the activity is waking up after 92W goes. I assumed the original post was talking about 921 mbar being the peak intensity

 

[lake.effect]

I know. I was mostly pointing out that the activity is waking up after 92W goes. I assumed the original post was talking about 921 mbar being the peak intensity

How is a 915 low not "waking up"
Are you high breh?

 

[slenker]

How is a 915 low not "waking up"
Are you high breh?

There’s two other storms that form after that.

 

[lake.effect]

Models are trending towards a Taiwan landfall, or at a very close call.

More concerning, several models are showing a near-shore stall at around 72 hours, dumping potentially biblical amounts of rain on Taiwan (60+ inches in the mountains over 2 days).

Could be an extreme flooding situation, we'll see

 

[lake.effect]

Typhoon Gaemi appears to be rapidly intensifying at this hour over some of the warmest ocean water in the world. Taiwan is going to take it on the chin with this storm.

Taipei (city of 8 million) could potentially see the northern eyewall. Current 24 track places the center about 20 miles south of central Taipei, which would likely bring with it cat 3 winds.

Taipei also has some very tall buildings (Taipei 101 is 1667 feet). And several other buildings over 800 feet. The amplifying effects of height on wind speed will really put the structural engineering of these buildings to the test.

An even bigger story could flooding. When you see 60 inch 3-day rain totals on a global model, there's going to be problems.

Either, significant event for Taiwan in the next few days. There are no shortage of HD webcams for those interested in the show. Here are just a few:

Central Taipei:


Riverfront cam (will be one to watch as the inland flooding unfolds):


Coast:

 

[JPWX]

With Gaemi becoming the first Western Pacific major typhoon, it marks the end of the 204 consecutive day streak without a major typhoon this year.

2024 now ranks 3rd place with 2010 (244) in 2nd place and 1974 (264) in 1st place for longest streak without the first major typhoon.

 

[slenker]

GFS has also been quite consistent in showing a system showing up right behind Gaemi - far weaker, but would be very bad due to more rain. That’s the last thing they would need after this storm passes.

 

[bjdeming]

I didn't know this could happen:



A geology note: Dave Petley tweeted that the affected area will include zones hit by the recent 7-pointer, and there will probably be landslides, too.

 

[Clancy]

I didn't know this could happen:



A geology note: Dave Petley tweeted that the affected area will include zones hit by the recent 7-pointer, and there will probably be landslides, too.

Apparently this is something that happens with Taiwan specifically. It's bad news for eastern Taiwan, facing prolonged surge, winds and rainfall.

 

[lake.effect]

Gaemi-enhanced monsoon flooding absolutely crushed Manila, Philippines yesterday with some locations reporting over 30 inches of rain in less than 24 hours (on top of significant rainfall from previous days).

Based on what's coming out, catastrophic flooding situation has occurred/is occurring in Manila (metro pop 13.4 million)

 

[lake.effect]

A weather station near downtown Kaoshiung, Taiwan (also a very large city) has reported 38.71 inches of rain so far today (and the event is far from over). That's on the coast, low elevation. It seem likely that we'll see 100+ inch totals in the higher elevations, maybe even higher.

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Another potentially very bad flooding situation unfolding there.

 

[lake.effect]

^Up to 46.7 inches for today. Picked up 2.5" in the last 15 minutes.

The world record 24 hour rainfall was set in 1966 and 71.8 inches from the island of Reunion. If this is an official observation site, we could see that broken today.

 

[jiharris0220]

I know this has nothing to do with this typhoon, but I want to show you guys a pretty much perfect example regarding how winds in tropical cyclones strengthen with height. With the example being none other than the mighty Haiyan.

This photo shows the Guiuan radar, ground zero of the strongest winds Haiyan had to offer. Notice the areas I circled.

Near sea level, (Green) the palm trees all have their palm fronds still intact, practically unbothered by the typhoon. I’d estimate winds here were 140-145knots.

Palm trees on the hill (Blue) it’s more 50/50 with more or less half of them loosing part or all of their palm fronds. Winds here were likely higher at 150-155knots.

Now, notice the palm trees on the high part of the hill, (Red) or what’s left of them I should say. Not a single frond to be seen and it even goes as far as most of trunks being snapped halfway. Winds were almost certainly in the 160-165knot ranges and could’ve been as high as 170knots at the top of the hill.