Tropical Storm Erin

[wx_guy]

With it becoming more likely that Erin will pose a threat to land beyond the tragedy in the Cabo Verde Islands, I decided to pull the trigger and go ahead and make a thread.

 

[wx_guy]

Here's the HAFS-A and HAFS-B 48-hour errors. These models have been doing mostly well on the storm so far.











And the GFS for reference --

 

[wx_guy]

And intensity errors so far (not very helpful since it's a minimal tropical storm, but still...)








And the GFS for reference --





The lower intensity may help it skirt further west and south. We'll have to see.

 

[majorhurricane1703]

And intensity errors so far (not very helpful since it's a minimal tropical storm, but still...)

View attachment 45939


View attachment 45940



And the GFS for reference --

View attachment 45941



The lower intensity may help it skirt further west and south. We'll have to see.

I think the longer it spends in the dry air short term the more west it will get. A far enough push to the southwest would get it out of the deepest layer of dry air allowing it to temporarily strengthen. The questions are when does a southwest jog reach its peak? How long does it remain on a southwest jog before turning back on a west northwest jog? Does the western flank of the Bermuda high extend farther west before the turn? Is the trough in the northeast Atlantic strong enough? So many questions left unanswered by this, but my feeling is any rapid intensification would likely not be until it reaches north of the Antilles around or past 60 west. We’ll have to see though.

 

[N0mz]

Here's the HAFS-A and HAFS-B 48-hour errors. These models have been doing mostly well on the storm so far.


View attachment 45936




View attachment 45937



And the GFS for reference --


View attachment 45938

How much of an error in this stage of a TC is really “significant”?

 

[wx_guy]

How much of an error in this stage of a TC is really “significant”?

Great question, and I'd love for any mets on the forum to reply. In my view, it's more about watching trends and seeing if there's a pull one way or another versus the models.

 

[wx_guy]

Tropical Storm Erin Forecast Discussion

The forecast discussion makes it very obvious that they may have to shift the forecast track even further south and west if trends continue. I think the Antilles and Bahamas are firmly in play now, and the U.S. could be if trends continue.