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Tropical Depression Two

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Another spicy look from the NAM nest.
 
HRRR says "disorganized bottom-heavy mess" for a few days as it heads due west. Euro says gone in 48 hours.. HWRF is totally unimpressed. NAMNst still the most spicy look, further south than last major run. It's still alone thinking this strengthens.
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12Zs all basically same solutions - a disorganized bottom-heavy mess heading into lake Pontchartrain.

This one is sitting with me - won't get out of my head. Not sure why. I think because it wouldn't take much for it to overperform prediction.
 
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A fascinating beast to watch on radar right now.
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It's still doing the naked swirl thing, though it's starting to get some convection to the south closer to the coc.

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18Z models bring it back north closer to the coast, NAM coast-walks it west from Mobile bay, HRRR basically parks it there.
 
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