• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather Threat - October 18th/19th 2025

Just to give credence to my thinking - sounding reveals strong low level shear partially enhanced by the LLJ. The HRRR may be bullish with the shear just a bit but regardless still could produce tornadoes. My main problem is line orientation - a user shared a post earlier from someone discussing line orientation being the only thing really reducing the risk here. This has me personally think these supercell-line interactions are the watch tonight as they can significantly change the environment. Going toward 1-2am, this can get sneaky so anyone in the vicinity of Central/SW MS to Southern AL, keep weather radios on if you have one. Damaging wind and quick spinups as we all know is typical for Dixie but that doesn't mean they're harmless. Damaging winds up to 50-60 mph also plausible too with the line!
 

Attachments

  • hrrr_2025101812_016_32.63--89.91.png
    hrrr_2025101812_016_32.63--89.91.png
    240.4 KB · Views: 0
  • 850wh.conus.png
    850wh.conus.png
    507.6 KB · Views: 0
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Just to give credence to my thinking - sounding reveals strong low level shear partially enhanced by the LLJ. The HRRR may be bullish with the shear just a bit but regardless still could produce tornadoes. My main problem is line orientation - a user shared a post earlier from someone discussing line orientation being the only thing really reducing the risk here. This has me personally think these supercell-line interactions are the watch tonight as they can significantly change the environment. Going toward 1-2am, this can get sneaky so anyone in the vicinity of Central/SW MS to Southern AL, keep weather radios on if you have one. Damaging wind and quick spinups as we all know is typical for Dixie but that doesn't mean they're harmless. Damaging winds up to 50-60 mph also plausible too with the line!
Click to expand...
The South can pull some impressive storms with robust low-level shear, definitely not putting it past this setup to do something stupid.
 
Clancy said:
The South can pull some impressive storms with robust low-level shear, definitely not putting it past this setup to do something stupid.
Click to expand...
I think, even in my relatively short time of following severe weather (2023 to now), I've seen Dixie do stuff on days it shouldn't have really happened. Anything can happen anywhere, Dixie is just proflic with beating the odds. Things certainly looking better for tornadoes down here then it did last night, that's for sure
 
Nothing says October 18th like 80 degrees and dewpoint already up to 68.
 
JPWX said:
Nothing says October 18th like 80 degrees and dewpoint already up to 68.
Click to expand...
Moisture isn't the issue. 82/64 at KGTR. Feels like an armpit.

If any cell get out ahead of the QLCS and become a right turner, then it has a lot to work with.

That's pretty much all it boils down to. We'll see a couple embedded spin ups, but can anything develop ahead of the line?
 
There in lies the bad potential with this across MS and perhaps extending into western AL
 
So this is really odd. GRlevel 2, COD, and Baron using KGWX all show few isolated storms trying to develop north of Ackerman while you go to the KGWX site on NWS and it shows nothing. (and no KGWX is not offline)
 

Attachments

  • KGWX_0.gif
    KGWX_0.gif
    35.8 KB · Views: 0
  • download.png
    download.png
    328.6 KB · Views: 0
  • Screenshot 2025-10-18 122754.png
    Screenshot 2025-10-18 122754.png
    766.8 KB · Views: 0
  • Screenshot 2025-10-18 122729.png
    Screenshot 2025-10-18 122729.png
    175.1 KB · Views: 0
The Texas A&M at Arkansas game has been moved back a couple of hours to let the bad weather pass. Honestly, I wish ESPN/ABC could have switched the time slots of UT at Bama and Ole Miss at Georgia due to the incoming storms tonight.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top