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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 6-14

I'm so curious what has caused every event this year to underperform so significantly. My gut is telling me it has something to do with the low pressure systems not being deep or isolated enough. Seems like every trough that ejects from the rockies is being handicapped in some way by a neighboring low pressure system or ridge.

Height falls are meager and I don't think we've seen any sub 990 mb lows verify. The ones that come close do seem to produce pretty significant and active weather.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
I'm so curious what has caused every event this year to underperform so significantly. My gut is telling me it has something to do with the low pressure systems not being deep or isolated enough. Seems like every trough that ejects from the rockies is being handicapped in some way by a neighboring low pressure system or ridge.

Height falls are meager and I don't think we've seen any sub 990 mb lows verify. The ones that come close do seem to produce pretty significant and active weather.
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That and the cuts. That doesn't belong here but the lack of soundings is also preventing us from recognising when a setup is cooked.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
One thing of note is the subtle 700 mb inversion on your sounding. I'm not convinced totally that we see many, many initiation attempts tomorrow. I feel like this inversion could play a part in limiting crapvection plenty tomorrow. We will see.
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This set up needs an inversion, the 3km NAM, which is notorious for its inversion layer bias, is the only cam that shows one, all other cams show a overly saturated profile which is actually the main failure mode here.

If your vertical profile is too moist, that lowers the LFC so much that air parcels don’t have time to actually ingest that moisture to grow larger and more buoyant before doing a free ascent. This can lead to anemic updrafts and in the face of such a high shear environment, can be a deal breaker for tornadoes.

The ventilation in the upper 400mb is also an issue, these storms will be moving over 40knots, when the upper level winds are moving around that speed or even slower, you’re going to get squashed, ratchet shaped blobs instead of the classic VDR arc sculpted supercells one would expect in a parameter space like this one.

If we could get a drier vertical profile and a more stout inversion layer, that should negate the ventilation issues a bit, considering it’s mid June, I would bet this does occur, as the latest runs show a drying trend.
 
jiharris0220 said:
This set up needs an inversion, the 3km NAM, which is notorious for its inversion layer bias, is the only cam that shows one, all other cams show a overly saturated profile which is actually the main failure mode here.

If your vertical profile is too moist, that lowers the LFC so much that air parcels don’t have time to actually ingest that moisture to grow larger and more buoyant before doing a free ascent. This can lead to anemic updrafts and in the face of such a high shear environment, can be a deal breaker for tornadoes.

The ventilation in the upper 400mb is also an issue, these storms will be moving over 40knots, when the upper level winds are moving around that speed or even slower, you’re going to get squashed, ratchet shaped blobs instead of the classic VDR arc sculpted supercells one would expect in a parameter space like this one.

If we could get a drier vertical profile and a more stout inversion layer, that should negate the ventilation issues a bit, considering it’s mid June, I would bet this does occur, as the latest runs show a drying trend.
Click to expand...
I completely agree with you. The point I was trying to make is that I see the inversion as a positive to limit saturation issues, my wording mightve not been clear enough. Plus drier slot can aid ventilation issues like you said
 
jiharris0220 said:
This set up needs an inversion, the 3km NAM, which is notorious for its inversion layer bias, is the only cam that shows one, all other cams show a overly saturated profile which is actually the main failure mode here.

If your vertical profile is too moist, that lowers the LFC so much that air parcels don’t have time to actually ingest that moisture to grow larger and more buoyant before doing a free ascent. This can lead to anemic updrafts and in the face of such a high shear environment, can be a deal breaker for tornadoes.

The ventilation in the upper 400mb is also an issue, these storms will be moving over 40knots, when the upper level winds are moving around that speed or even slower, you’re going to get squashed, ratchet shaped blobs instead of the classic VDR arc sculpted supercells one would expect in a parameter space like this one.

If we could get a drier vertical profile and a more stout inversion layer, that should negate the ventilation issues a bit, considering it’s mid June, I would bet this does occur, as the latest runs show a drying trend.
Click to expand...
 
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