Severe WX Historic April 27-May 1 2024 Midwest Storms

[jiharris0220]

Would anyone consider May 2003 as a potential analog to this upcoming event and/or pattern?

BTW anyone know of a good website where I can access the past 500mb pattern for different years/months?

That is most certainly an analog, although on the most powerful roids imaginable.
And the best website I could find is this one from Columbia University. Which shows the -PNA which caused those 7 days of terror well.


https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Atm_Circulation/Monthly_Height_500hPa.html?bbox=bb:-170:15:-40:75:bb&T=May 2003

 

[JPWX]

That is most certainly an analog, although on the most powerful roids imaginable.
And the best website I could find is this one from Columbia University. Which shows the -PNA which caused those 7 days of terror well.

View attachment 25523
https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Atm_Circulation/Monthly_Height_500hPa.html?bbox=bb:-170:15:-40:75:bb&T=May 2003

Thank you so much! This is gonna help me a lot

 

[JPWX]

Both the 00z and 6z GEFS continue to shows consistency for late next week thru weekend. It also shows the first disturbance that @andyhb alluded to moving thru between the 25th/26th timeframe with the BIG trough coming out between the 27th/28th.

 

[Mrgolfman7070]

Both the 00z and 6z GEFS continue to shows consistency for late next week thru weekend. It also shows the first disturbance that @andyhb alluded to moving thru between the 25th/26th timeframe with the BIG trough coming out between the 27th/28th

Hoping this will be our opportunity here. Ready for some action!!

 

[Mrgolfman7070]

Remember that the real big events are picked up 7 days out and don't waiver

 

[atrainguy]

Had a tornado warning in West Michigan until 10. I don't think we were even under a marginal severe risk (at least that part of the state, could be wrong though).

 

[atrainguy]

Also, lots of hail in that same area.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[JPWX]

There's 4 of my hurricane analog years showing up

 

[Brice W]

I won’t say anything, but if this was posted in the “enhanced fujita debate thread” I’d be ranting lol.

 

[jiharris0220]

The legend himself, the only one that was keeping the weather channel from falling into incompetence. So happy to see him back again even if briefly.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Looks like a lot of rain in the models the next couple weeks here in for Central Texas.The models are definitely forecasting a lot of stormy weather for this part of the country in the next couple weeks.

 

[cincywx]

not to slide off topic here but I just want to say that I sincerely enjoyed @JPWX and @Fred Gossage on this week's WeatherBrains.

 

[MichelleH]

not to slide off topic here but I just want to say that I sincerely enjoyed @JPWX and @Fred Gossage on this week's WeatherBrains.

I will have to check that out! Thank you!

 

[KevinH]

From the southern Plains to Dixie Alley it should say. I've heard that too @CheeselandSkies but to me "cold air" if any would be mostly confined to the Northeast U.S. That area of below normal anomalies over the Deep South I don't buy. If anything It's gonna get warm over the Eastern US. That western trough is just asking for trouble

Welp.. this seems to be aging well

 

[JPWX]

It's aging quite well in my opinion

 

[KevinH]

It's aging quite well in my opinion

Yep

 

[andyhb]

Going to need a new thread for 5/1 pretty soon. 12z models were impressive for SW KS/NW OK and parts of the TX Panhandle.

 

[Clancy]

Active stretch looks to continue as we enter May. CSU probs for 5/1 and long-range CFS SCP totals.

 

[Tanner]

Active stretch looks to continue as we enter May. CSU probs for 5/1 and long-range CFS SCP totals.
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Holy