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I don’t know where to put this @WesL, so I’m going to put it here if that’s fine.
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The old Central Pacific Hurricane Center website was clucky and it was shut down around 2017 I believe. After that the CPHC merged their site with the NHC to get the configuration we have today.
I plan to go to Storm2k and archive one at a time the missing advisories on EPAC origin storms that entered the basin as well as CPAC depressions, storms and hurricanes that formed with the CPAC between Storm2k’s founding year of 2003, and when CPHC advisories moved to the NHC/CPHC site around 2017-2018.
This project might take a long while, so bear with me on this.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 PM HST WED AUG 06 2008
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C SPINS UP FAR SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII
AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 146.9 WEST OR
ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 1055 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS COURSE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...10.3 N...146.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG
852
WTPA41 PHFO 070228
TCDCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 PM HST WED AUG 06 2008
THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKED AS INVEST 92C FAR SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...AND
THOUGH STILL SMALL CAN NOW BE CALLED TD ONE-C. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS SHOWN THAT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER HAS FORMED DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY...WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM PHFO AND JTWC
WERE 2.0 WITH SAB COMING IN AT 2.5. HAVE GONE WITH THE FIRST TWO...
PLACING MAXIMUM WINDS AT 30 KT.
TD ONE-C IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KT...BEING DRIVEN BY DEEP
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED
NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE HIGH AND THE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OF THE
HIGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH OR CHANGE MUCH IN STRENGTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS THEREFORE JUST AN
EXTENTION OF ITS PRESENT MOVEMENT...AND FALLS IN THE MIDDLE OF A
TIGHT PACK OF OBJECTIVE AIDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS PRESENTLY OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT
27 DEGREES CELSIUS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE WARM WATER IS JUST ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN OR EVEN
CAUSE A SLOW STRENGTHENING OF THE DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL STORM IN
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM KIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
0900 UTC THU AUG 07 2008
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 147.8W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 147.8W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 147.2W
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 10.5N 149.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 10.8N 152.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 11.0N 154.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 11.2N 157.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 12.1N 162.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 13.3N 167.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 14.8N 172.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N 147.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
WTPA41 PHFO 070838
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 PM HST WED AUG 06 2008
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER AND THE
CONSENSUS DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM PHFO...JTWC AND SAB CAME IN
AT 2.5...OR 35 KT. AS A RESULT...ONE-C HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM KIKA. THE SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER SMALL AND THE
PRIMARY QUIKSCAT SOLUTION FROM 0400 UTC DOES NOT DEPICT A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...AMBIGUITY DATA INDICATE POSSIBLE WESTERLIES
TO CLOSE OFF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SSMI AND GOES DATA CERTAINLY
SUPPORT A CLOSED CIRCULATION.
KIKA IS MOVING WITHIN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE RELATIVELY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AND SHOW A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS THEN A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR
170W. THE CURRENT FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMIC MODEL CONSENSUS.
AS FOR INTENSITY...CIMSS SHEAR DATA SHOW ABOUT 15 KT OF EASTERLY
SHEAR IMPINGING UPON KIKA. THIS IS EVIDENT IN RECENT IR IMAGES
WHICH SHOW A RESTRICTED OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
MICROWAVE DATA FROM 0248 AND 0340 UTC ALSO SUGGEST A TILTING OF
CENTER WITH HEIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE SHEAR MAY HINDER
ANY MAJOR DEVELOPMENT DESPITE ADEQUATE SST VALUES OF 27C. THE
TRACK KEEPS KIKA NEAR 27C WATER THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN INTO MARGINAL
SST CONDITIONS THROUGH 96 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SST VALUES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK INCREASE BEYOND 96 HOURS...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND HINDER INTENSIFICATION. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 24 HOURS
BUT GENERALLY CONSISTENT BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME.
TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 AM HST THU AUG 07 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS...AND IN FACT THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE PHFO DVORAK ANALYSIS WAS 2.5/2.5...THE JTWC
ANALYSIS WAS 2.0/2.5 AND THE SAB ANALYSIS WAS 2.0/2.0. WE HAVE KEPT
THE INITIAL INTENSITY UNCHANGED AT 35 KT. KIKA CONTINUES MOVING
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST AND THE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THE FORWARD
MOTION HAS INCREASED TO 12 KT.
COMPUTER MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A FAIRLY STRONG AND
DEEP AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH
AT LEAST THE NEXT 120 HOURS. THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP KIKA MOVING ALONG ON A TRACK TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS VERY TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED. WE HAVE CHANGED THE TRACK ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SHIFTING THE TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
KIKA WILL REMAIN OVER 27C WATER WITH WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE
NEXT 96 HOURS. THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND
96 HOURS...KIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER
WESTERLY SHEAR...AND TO START WEAKENING. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
MUCH THE SAME SO THERE HAS BEEN NO NEED TO CHANGE THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 AM HST THU AUG 07 2008
...KIKA CONTINUE ON TRACK TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES...
AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.9 WEST OR ABOUT
880 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 1370 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.
KIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...11.1 N...149.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM HST.
TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 PM HST THU AUG 07 2008
DVORAK ANALYSES FROM THE CPHC...JTWC AND SAB HAVE SHOWN LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE PHFO DVORAK
ANALYSIS REMAINS 2.5/2.5...THE JTWC ANALYSIS SHOWED A BIT OF
WEAKENING AT 1.5/2.0 AND THE SAB ANALYSIS SHOWED DEVELOPMENT AT
2.5/2.5. THE SATELLITE FIXES WERE BASED ON IMAGERY 3 TO 3-1/2 HOURS
PRIOR TO THIS BULLETIN. OVER THAT TIME THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHOWN
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. WE HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY UNCHANGED
AT 35 KT. KIKA CONTINUES MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD MOTION IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.
COMPUTER MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A FAIRLY STRONG AND
DEEP AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH
AT LEAST THE NEXT 120 HOURS. THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP KIKA MOVING ALONG ON A TRACK TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS EVEN MORE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THAN THE GUIDANCE FROM 6 HOURS AGO. WE HAVE CHANGED THE
TRACK VERY LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...KEEPING THE TRACK IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...KIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY
COOLER WATERS WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK. THAT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND 72 HOURS...KIKA IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER WESTERLY SHEAR...AND TO START
WEAKENING. THIS IS THE SAME INTENSITY TREND WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING ON OUR LAST COUPLE OF FORECASTS.
TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 PM HST THU AUG 07 2008
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT AS KIKA HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE
IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH DVORAK CI ANALYSES FROM PHFO AND SAB. INITIAL MOTION OF 275/11
REMAINS UNCHANGED AS KIKA CONTINUES TO MOVE NEARLY DUE WEST ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE
TROPOSPHERE.
KIKA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT BEYOND THAT THE
TRACK WAS NUDGED SOUTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS OF DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH SUGGEST STRONG AND DEEP RIDGING WILL
MAINTAIN A NEAR DUE WEST MOTION. THIS MOTION WILL TAKE THE CENTER OF
KIKA ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF JOHNSTON ATOLL ON MONDAY.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED...WITH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND SST TRENDS VARYING TO CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. KIKA IS CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER WARM WATERS WITH A SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 27C...BUT CIMSS
ANALYSES REVEAL SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 10 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH
HAS LIKELY BEEN INHIBITING INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CREATING
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT SST VALUES WILL FALL
TO A MARGINAL 26C DURING THIS TIME. THUS...GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE HELD TO 45 KT DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND 72
HOURS...SST VALUES WARM ABOVE 27C...BUT INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT WILL CREATE A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
KIKA.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 PM HST THU AUG 07 2008
...KIKA REMAINS ON TRACK TO STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...
AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 152.3 WEST OR ABOUT
780 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 1210 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.
KIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...11.4 N...152.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON/WROE
WTPA41 PHFO 081454
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 AM HST FRI AUG 08 2008
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM SAB AND PHFO REMAIN AT 2.5...OR 35 KT...
WHILE THE FINAL T NUMBERS WERE DOWN TO 2.0...OR 30 KT. THE JTWC
ANALYSIS CAME IN AT 1.5...OR 25 KT. EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT OUTFLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF KIKA AND CREATE
APPROXIMATELY 10 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACCORDING TO RECENT CIMSS
ANALYSES. ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY RELAX TODAY... THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN HELD AT 35 KT DUE
TO THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.
INITIAL MOTION IS 270/11 AS KIKA CONTINUES TO MOVE DUE WEST ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE
TROPOSPHERE. THE DEEP LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP KIKA ON A WESTERLY
TRACK THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS
BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMIC AIDS.
VARYING WIND SHEAR AND SST TRENDS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 48
HOURS. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY...CREATING
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT SST VALUES WILL FALL
TO 26C WITH MARGINAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT VALUES INDICATED BY A CIRA
ANALYSIS ALONG THE TRACK. IN 72 HOURS...KIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER A WARMER SEA SURFACE...BUT INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR WILL ACT
TO WEAKEN KIKA.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 08 2008
...KIKA RELOCATED AND DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 1100 AM
HST...
AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 840 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 1150
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS
MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...9.7 N...154.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM HST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
0300 UTC SAT AUG 09 2008
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 155.2W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 10SE 10SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 155.2W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 154.6W
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 10.2N 156.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 10.6N 159.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 25NE 5SE 5SW 25NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 10.9N 161.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 11.4N 164.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 15SE 15SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 12.2N 169.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 12.9N 174.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 13.2N 180.0E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 155.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
Forecast Discussion 9 is missing
WTPA21 PHFO 090828
TCMCP1
TROPICAL STORM KIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
0900 UTC SAT AUG 09 2008
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 156.5W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 156.5W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 155.9W
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 10.4N 158.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 10.8N 161.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 11.2N 163.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 15SE 15SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 11.6N 166.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 15SE 15SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 12.4N 170.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 15SE 15SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 13.0N 176.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 13.3N 178.4E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 156.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
WTPA41 PHFO 090844
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 08 2008
THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION THAT KIKA EXHIBITED DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS HAS CONTINUED THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW
UNDER PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. THE 0600 UTC SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM PHFO WAS 35 KT WHEREAS JTWC AND SAB HAD 30 KT. GIVEN
THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE...AND A JUST-RECEIVED QUIKSCAT
PASS THAT CONTAINED /RAIN-FLAGGED/ 40 KT WINDS...KIKA IS DEEMED TO
BE A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN.
THE INITIAL MOTION OF 280/12KT REMAINS UNCHANGED SINCE MORNING...AS
DOES THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY. A DEEP ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
WILL KEEP KIKA MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST...WITH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE...AND VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC...AS SHEAR HAS
BEEN LIGHT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES /SST/ SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR
INTENSIFICATION...YET KIKA HAS NOT DONE SO IN THE 24 HOURS LEADING
UP TO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT KIKA MAY
BE IN LINE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS INDICATED BY SHIPS AND
CONSENSUS MODELS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
UPWARD. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
HAVE TO BE INCREASED FURTHER...AS WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR AND SST ABOVE
OR NEAR 26.5 LIE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND
72 HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER AN AREA OF HIGHER
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...YET WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
MARGINALLY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION FORECAST.
TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 AM HST SAT AUG 09 2008
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF
KIKA...BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH OVERNIGHT.
THE 1200 UTC SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE AS
WELL...WITH FIXES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KT FROM PHFO/SAB/JTWC. HAVE
KEPT INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.
THE INITIAL MOTION OF 280/13 HAS BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE PAST 18
HOURS...AFTER LAST NIGHT/S DRAMATIC JOG TO THE SOUTH. KIKA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING OVER THE COURSE OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT WILL REMAIN IN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE THAT TRACKS WESTWARD IN TANDEM
WITH THE SYSTEM. HAVE NUDGED THE FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARD WITH THIS
PACKAGE TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS...AND TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE FACT THAT KIKA HAS GAINED LITTLE LATITUDE OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 10 KT CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER KIKA...
ACCORDING TO UW/CIMSS ANALYSES...AND IS LIMITING OUTFLOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX IN THE 24-72
HOUR TIME FRAME...WHILE THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE 26.5 DEGREE C
ISOTHERM...ALLOWING FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. IN THE LATER
PERIODS...KIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER AN AREA OF HIGHER OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT...WHILE AT THE SAME ENCOUNTERING INCREASING SOUTHWEST
SHEAR AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND IS INDICATED.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 09 2008
...KIKA CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...
AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 158.9 WEST OR ABOUT
765 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 840 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.
KIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...10.3 N...158.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM HST.
TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 09 2008
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF
KIKA...BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE 1800 UTC SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE AS WELL...WITH FIXES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KT FROM
PHFO AND SAB AND 25 KT FROM JTWC. HAVE KEPT INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35
KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.
THE INITIAL MOTION OF 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT HAS BEEN FAIRLY STEADY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK PRETTY MUCH GOES DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THEM ALL. THIS IS DUE TO DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS POSITIONED FAR TO THE NORTH OF KIKA.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
ACCORDING TO UW/CIMSS ANALYSES...THE SHEAR HAS WEAKENED OVER KIKA TO
LESS THAN 3 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS BEFORE ENTERING AN
AREA OF WARMER WATER AND HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. DUE TO THE
DECREASE IN SHEAR...SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. THIS IS IN
LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND 72 HOURS ALL BUT THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WITH SHIPS BRINGING KIKA UP TO AROUND
55 KT WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM DOWN TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF KIKA. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FOLLOW THIS SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND BEYOND 72 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 PM HST SAT AUG 09 2008
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF
KIKA...BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE 0000 UTC SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
LOWERED SLIGHTLY...WITH FIXES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KT FROM
PHFO/SAB/JTWC. HAVE KEPT INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE
AS COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN REAPPEARING NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT AND HAS BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK PRETTY MUCH GOES DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THEM ALL. THIS IS DUE TO DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS POSITIONED FAR TO THE NORTH OF KIKA.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
ACCORDING TO UW/CIMSS ANALYSES...THE SHEAR OVER KIKA IS AROUND 3 KT
FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ALSO KIKA WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS BEFORE ENTERING AN AREA OF WARMER
WATER AND HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. DUE TO THE LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BUT A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND 72 HOURS ALL BUT THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND WITH SHIPS BRINGING KIKA UP TO AROUND 60 KT
WITHIN 120 HOURS WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM
DOWN TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF KIKA. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THIS SLOW WEAKENING TREND BEYOND 72 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 PM HST SAT AUG 09 2008
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF
KIKA...BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE 0000 UTC SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
LOWERED SLIGHTLY...WITH FIXES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KT FROM
PHFO/SAB/JTWC. HAVE KEPT INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE
AS COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN REAPPEARING NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT AND HAS BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK PRETTY MUCH GOES DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THEM ALL. THIS IS DUE TO DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS POSITIONED FAR TO THE NORTH OF KIKA.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
ACCORDING TO UW/CIMSS ANALYSES...THE SHEAR OVER KIKA IS AROUND 3 KT
FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ALSO KIKA WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS BEFORE ENTERING AN AREA OF WARMER
WATER AND HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. DUE TO THE LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BUT A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND 72 HOURS ALL BUT THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND WITH SHIPS BRINGING KIKA UP TO AROUND 60 KT
WITHIN 120 HOURS WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM
DOWN TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF KIKA. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THIS SLOW WEAKENING TREND BEYOND 72 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 AM HST SUN AUG 10 2008
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES FOR 1200 UTC FROM PHFO AND JTWC HAVE
CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 2.0...OR 30 KT FOR KIKA. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS SHOWN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS SO I
HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT.
DEEP RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE STORM. DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STEER KIKA ON A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING KIKA TO MOVE NORTH OF WEST...THE 1200 UTC
SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT KIKA HAS ACTUALLY CONTINUED TRACKING
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST. I HAVE NUDGED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH AGAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE IN THE TRACK. I HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT KIKA WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST CLOSE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK.
THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS KIKA OVER 26.5 TO 27.0C WATER FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. VERY WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
WEAK WESTERLY SHEAR AFTER 12 HOURS. THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH 72 HOURS. DESPITE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...KIKA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED VERY RAPIDLY.
I HAVE FORECAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN
GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS AS SHEAR INCREASES. SINCE KIKA HAS
NOT RESPONDED AS EXPECTED TO ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...MY CONFIDENCE
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RATHER LOW.
TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 AM HST SUN AUG 10 2008
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES FOR 1200 UTC FROM PHFO AND JTWC HAVE
CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 2.0...OR 30 KT FOR KIKA. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS SHOWN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS SO I
HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT.
DEEP RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE STORM. DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STEER KIKA ON A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING KIKA TO MOVE NORTH OF WEST...THE 1200 UTC
SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT KIKA HAS ACTUALLY CONTINUED TRACKING
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST. I HAVE NUDGED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH AGAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE IN THE TRACK. I HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT KIKA WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST CLOSE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK.
THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS KIKA OVER 26.5 TO 27.0C WATER FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. VERY WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
WEAK WESTERLY SHEAR AFTER 12 HOURS. THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH 72 HOURS. DESPITE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...KIKA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED VERY RAPIDLY.
I HAVE FORECAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN
GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS AS SHEAR INCREASES. SINCE KIKA HAS
NOT RESPONDED AS EXPECTED TO ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...MY CONFIDENCE
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RATHER LOW.
Forecast Advisory 19 is missing
Warning 20 is missing
082
WTPA41 PHFO 120235
TCDCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 PM HST MON AUG 11 2008
THE CONVECTION HANGING AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA THROUGH THE
MORNING HAS WEAKENED BOTH IN SCOPE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER ALLOWED FOR AN EASIER 00Z POSITION FIX
NEAR 10.8N AND 170.3W. IN LIGHT OF THIS...THE 18Z AND 12Z
POSITIONS WERE TOO FAR SOUTH AND WERE REBESTED FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. JTWC CONSIDERS KIKA TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY WHILE PHFO AND SAB
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 25 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE STARTING TO IMPACT KIKA AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWS KIKA FLATTENING OUT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE DROPPED TO 25 KT.
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TAKING EFFECT AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WARMING OF SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
NOW WEAKENS KIKA INTO A REMNANT LOW AT 36 HOURS JUST PRIOR TO
CROSSING THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE LEFT OR
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINS ON THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS SHIFT RESULTS IN A
NEARLY DUE WEST TRACK...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE EXPECTED
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. EXPECTED HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND RIDGING AT MID LEVELS THROUGH 72 HOURS WILL PROVIDE
THE PRIMARY STEERING FOR KIKA...AND DO NOT SEE ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR MUCH IF ANY DISPLACEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 PM HST MON AUG 11 2008
...KIKA WEAKENING FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 171.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 1130 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII...AND ABOUT 400
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.
THE DISSIPATING DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...
AND THIS SHOULD BE THE GENERAL MOTION OF THE REMNANT LOW OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KIKA
IS DISSIPATING...AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...11.2 N...171.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
Forecast Discussion 22 is missing
Forecast Advisory 22 is missing
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