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Archive 2017-2019 Political Thread

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Jacob

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Outcome bias leads people to believe Trump is a stronger candidate than he actually is. Because he trailed in the national polls before the election (yet won the electoral college) a number of people can't help but think a strong economy means Trump has re-election in the bag.

I submit that Trump is a historically weak incumbent - even weaker than George HW Bush - and a strong economy is the ONLY thing making the upcoming race even slightly competitive. We have over 500 days until the 2020 election. The chances of the economy not showing signs of weakness by then are quite low considering recent economic indicators. Obviously the eventual Democratic nominee matters, but there's a significant number of them that can definitely beat Trump.

I bolded the statement above because some people are ignoring the 2018 mid-term elections, and the additional 4 years of demographic changes that have occurred. As we saw in the Alabama special election for Senate, black voters do NOT require an Obama to turn out at a level above their historical norm, if they believe a candidate running imperils their values and beliefs. Furthermore, Hispanic turnout has continued to rise, and Trump has left ample evidence of the impacts of his immigration policy throughout toss-up states like Florida and Arizona, and some might even say, Texas.

None of this bodes well for Trump. His margin of victory in 2020 was razor thin. He won Michigan by 10k votes. He won Pennsylvania by 44k. He won Wisconsin by 23k or so I believe. He won Florida by 1.2%. The Democratic nominee only has to win 3 of those and it's over for Trump -- or just two states if Trump can't hold on to Florida.

Trump's approval ratings and the performance of his party in the mid-term elections show that Trump has NOT expanded his base. At all. His entire strategy revolves around turning out the same voters that previously elected him. But minorities are clearly going to have higher turnout in 2020 than in 2016, and Hillary Clinton was a uniquely unpopular nominee inside of her own party. A number of Democratic voters stayed at home or voted 3rd party because they never dreamed she would lose to Trump, and they wanted to signal their discontentment. That's not going to happen this election.

Compounding all of this is that any hiccup in the economy will sharply undermine Trump's one true strength.

I'll end by saying that few people believed that Doug Jones could win Alabama -- but I did. Back in August before the special election, I said it was very possible and quite doable, and I have the tweets to prove it. I believe that Jones' election is a rough proxy for what happens when you have a controversial nominee run head-first into a buzz saw of increased turnout by minority voters and a drop-off in support for the controversial nominee because people just don't like the idea of that person representing them. Remember, everyone tries to claim the polls got it wrong in 2016 (they actually performed above-average) but everyone always ignores that few polls indicated that Doug Jones had any chance at all.

The question people should be asking is how can Trump beat someone like Biden in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida. Because I just don't see it. Trump's best chance is for someone like Sanders or Warren to get the nomination, IMO. Even though some of the other Dem candidates actually are polling below Warren, Sanders, and Biden in match-ups versus Trump, there's little predictive value in such polls 500+ days out. That said, I think most of the top Democratic contenders can beat Trump unless he performs an absolute miracle.

Matt will be here very soon to say I got it wrong in 2016. I said repeatedly back then that Trump *could* win but that I thought he'd perform the worst against Hillary out of the other potential GOP nominees. As it got closer to the election, I thought that Trump was unlikely to win. But I also didn't know Russia was running a massive Pro-Trump influence campaign nor did I know how spineless GOP hacks like Rubio and Cruz are. Last, but not least, I also didn't know that numerous Evangelicals held absolutely hypocritical beliefs.

Now I know all these things, and even though I expect additional Russian interference, I believe Trump's weaknesses are such that nothing short of a miracle will see him re-elected. He's just not a strong incumbent and he's only running on a tiny number of issues. He has little legislation or accomplishment that he can point to try to convince swing-voters. The only people that believe he's actually accomplished anything are his base. Everyone else sees that the emperor has no clothes, and that's huge even considering that massive leftward shift the Democratic Party has undergone.

I don't disagree with much of what you said, but I think the wildcard is just how hard to the left do the Democrats pivot between now and the election. It's unfortunate that Trump will be on the Republican ticket against this leftist wave, because I think the Democrats hard left turn has turned off much of America, but the alternative option for those who are turned off by that is....Trump.
 

Mike S

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Jacob pretty much echos my thoughts. I think people are underestimating just how far left the Democratic party has gone. I don't even know that they will try to move too far towards the center once they have a nominee, unless possibly it is Biden.

Trump will get a ton of votes just because of that. Short of something major and with actual substance, I believe Trump gets re-elected.
 

gangstonc

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Jacob pretty much echos my thoughts. I think people are underestimating just how far left the Democratic party has gone. I don't even know that they will try to move too far towards the center once they have a nominee, unless possibly it is Biden.

Trump will get a ton of votes just because of that. Short of something major and with actual substance, I believe Trump gets re-elected.
Trump has done a lot of “major” bad things with actual substance and it hasn’t mattered.
 

ARCC

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Outcome bias leads people to believe Trump is a stronger candidate than he actually is. Because he trailed in the national polls before the election (yet won the electoral college) a number of people can't help but think a strong economy means Trump has re-election in the bag.

I submit that Trump is a historically weak incumbent - even weaker than George HW Bush - and a strong economy is the ONLY thing making the upcoming race even slightly competitive. We have over 500 days until the 2020 election. The chances of the economy not showing signs of weakness by then are quite low considering recent economic indicators. Obviously the eventual Democratic nominee matters, but there's a significant number of them that can definitely beat Trump.

I bolded the statement above because some people are ignoring the 2018 mid-term elections, and the additional 4 years of demographic changes that have occurred. As we saw in the Alabama special election for Senate, black voters do NOT require an Obama to turn out at a level above their historical norm, if they believe a candidate running imperils their values and beliefs. Furthermore, Hispanic turnout has continued to rise, and Trump has left ample evidence of the impacts of his immigration policy throughout toss-up states like Florida and Arizona, and some might even say, Texas.

None of this bodes well for Trump. His margin of victory in 2020 was razor thin. He won Michigan by 10k votes. He won Pennsylvania by 44k. He won Wisconsin by 23k or so I believe. He won Florida by 1.2%. The Democratic nominee only has to win 3 of those and it's over for Trump -- or just two states if Trump can't hold on to Florida.

Trump's approval ratings and the performance of his party in the mid-term elections show that Trump has NOT expanded his base. At all. His entire strategy revolves around turning out the same voters that previously elected him. But minorities are clearly going to have higher turnout in 2020 than in 2016, and Hillary Clinton was a uniquely unpopular nominee inside of her own party. A number of Democratic voters stayed at home or voted 3rd party because they never dreamed she would lose to Trump, and they wanted to signal their discontentment. That's not going to happen this election.

Compounding all of this is that any hiccup in the economy will sharply undermine Trump's one true strength.

I'll end by saying that few people believed that Doug Jones could win Alabama -- but I did. Back in August before the special election, I said it was very possible and quite doable, and I have the tweets to prove it. I believe that Jones' election is a rough proxy for what happens when you have a controversial nominee run head-first into a buzz saw of increased turnout by minority voters and a drop-off in support for the controversial nominee because people just don't like the idea of that person representing them. Remember, everyone tries to claim the polls got it wrong in 2016 (they actually performed above-average) but everyone always ignores that few polls indicated that Doug Jones had any chance at all.

The question people should be asking is how can Trump beat someone like Biden in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida. Because I just don't see it. Trump's best chance is for someone like Sanders or Warren to get the nomination, IMO. Even though some of the other Dem candidates actually are polling below Warren, Sanders, and Biden in match-ups versus Trump, there's little predictive value in such polls 500+ days out. That said, I think most of the top Democratic contenders can beat Trump unless he performs an absolute miracle.

Matt will be here very soon to say I got it wrong in 2016. I said repeatedly back then that Trump *could* win but that I thought he'd perform the worst against Hillary out of the other potential GOP nominees. As it got closer to the election, I thought that Trump was unlikely to win. But I also didn't know Russia was running a massive Pro-Trump influence campaign nor did I know how spineless GOP hacks like Rubio and Cruz are. Last, but not least, I also didn't know that numerous Evangelicals held absolutely hypocritical beliefs.

Now I know all these things, and even though I expect additional Russian interference, I believe Trump's weaknesses are such that nothing short of a miracle will see him re-elected. He's just not a strong incumbent and he's only running on a tiny number of issues. He has little legislation or accomplishment that he can point to try to convince swing-voters. The only people that believe he's actually accomplished anything are his base. Everyone else sees that the emperor has no clothes, and that's huge even considering that massive leftward shift the Democratic Party has undergone.

I can't agree about Jones. People stayed home not just because the dislike of Moore, but also the fact there was little to lose even if Jones won. Had the Senate been even and the AL seat been the tiebreaker, Jones would have been trounced as even those who disliked Moore would have voted for him.

I highly doubt turn out will be a problem for Trump because as far as his votes go. Now a massive liberal turn out will be a problem for him, but he will get his votes from conservative leaning people because of what is at stake. With a possible socialist President on one side and an almost guaranteed SC seat vacant in the next four to five years, people will turn out and vote for him.
 

gangstonc

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Like what ?
His transgressions with women. You like to talk about Biden’s creepiness.

His dealings with SA after the Khashoggi murder.

His lack of transparency, especially with taking the translator notes from the Putin meetings and not allowing staff members to testify before Congress or answer subpoenas.

The constant stream of lying and manipulation.

The inhumane treatment of asylum seekers.

His financial ties to foreign countries make him very susceptible to their influence.

His inability to choose adequate people for cabinet level positions.

His terrible budgets and inability to reduce national debt.

Where did all the money from his inauguration fund go?

That’s off the top of my head.
 

Matt

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His transgressions with women. You like to talk about Biden’s creepiness.

His dealings with SA after the Khashoggi murder.

His lack of transparency, especially with taking the translator notes from the Putin meetings and not allowing staff members to testify before Congress or answer subpoenas.

The constant stream of lying and manipulation.

The inhumane treatment of asylum seekers.

His financial ties to foreign countries make him very susceptible to their influence.

His inability to choose adequate people for cabinet level positions.

His terrible budgets and inability to reduce national debt.

That’s off the top of my head.

1. Then you cannot vote for Biden if he is the nominee.
2. SA is too important too ignore. Sorry, but it is the truth.
3. If translator notes are turned over no other world leader will speak with POTUS. Not just this one but all future presidents. Horrible precedent.
4. If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor.
5. The Clinton Foundation? Ever looked into their financial ties to foreign countries ? Trump is an international businessman.
6. He has made some mistakes but overall I think he has surrounded himself with good people.
7. Congress appropriates spending. Obama had more debt than the previous 43 presidents combined. Where were your complaints about that ?
 
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JayF

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I really do wish you would stop spouting CNN talking points. But Let's go through this step by step.

His transgressions with women. You like to talk about Biden’s creepiness.
I don't think anyone disagrees that his transgressions with Women. And I hope and pray that he has asked for forgiveness and that he has put that in the past.

His dealings with SA after the Khashoggi murder.
Bad on the SA government but do you drown an alliance over one mistake or misstep?

His lack of transparency, especially with taking the translator notes from the Putin meetings and not allowing staff members to testify before Congress or answer subpoenas.
Really did you hold Obama to this same Standard? All of his school transcripts were locked and everything about his past was a secret. But you want Trump to all of a sudden just be completely transparent? This is completely Hypocritical.

The constant stream of lying and manipulation.
I can't even respond to you without rolling my eyes. Seriously. Please look at the people you support.

The inhumane treatment of asylum seekers.
CNN Talking point but forget how the way Asylum Seekers are treated is a continuation of Obama Policies. But it's Trumps fault right. My goodness will you stop.

His financial ties to foreign countries make him very susceptible to their influence.
Oh boy here we go again.

His inability to choose adequate people for cabinet level positions.
I guess you are perfect and never make mistakes? But that is impossible because only one Man walked this earth and was perfect.

His terrible budgets and inability to reduce national debt.
His deficit is much less than Obama's and Bush's deficit. Um how do you figure he is doing a bad job at this. And you act like in 3 years that he is able to reverse decades of overspending. You really are a give it to me now Democrat.
 

Kory

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I think I've made it abundantly clear what my issues with Trump are, but I am a single issue voter when it comes to one specific thing: the 2nd amendment. It is a large portion of why I will never vote Democrat (doesn't mean I will automatically support the Republican). The Dem platform demonizes law-abiding supporters of the 2nd amendment. Trump has not done himself any favors with me in that realm either. And don't give me the shpeal of "well what do you think a Democrat will do?" Well, if we have a Republican candidate who is not held to any standards because the other option is assumed to do worse, than what are we even doing? This goes for more than just the 2nd amendment. And it can be applied to more than just Trump.
 

ARCC

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I think I've made it abundantly clear what my issues with Trump are, but I am a single issue voter when it comes to one specific thing: the 2nd amendment. It is a large portion of why I will never vote Democrat (doesn't mean I will automatically support the Republican). The Dem platform demonizes law-abiding supporters of the 2nd amendment. Trump has not done himself any favors with me in that realm either. And don't give me the shpeal of "well what do you think a Democrat will do?" Well, if we have a Republican candidate who is not held to any standards because the other option is assumed to do worse, than what are we even doing? This goes for more than just the 2nd amendment. And it can be applied to more than just Trump.

I expect this type of issue to continue to grow which is one of the reasons I hate the term conservative. The current Republicans are a brake to slow things down yet never reverse course.
 

gangstonc

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1. Bad on the SA government but do you drown an alliance over one mistake or misstep?

2. Really did you hold Obama to this same Standard? All of his school transcripts were locked and everything about his past was a secret. But you want Trump to all of a sudden just be completely transparent? This is completely Hypocritical.


3. I can't even respond to you without rolling my eyes. Seriously. Please look at the people you support.


4. CNN Talking point but forget how the way Asylum Seekers are treated is a continuation of Obama Policies. But it's Trumps fault right. My goodness will you stop.


5. Oh boy here we go again.


6. I guess you are perfect and never make mistakes? But that is impossible because only one Man walked this earth and was perfect.


7. His deficit is much less than Obama's and Bush's deficit. Um how do you figure he is doing a bad job at this. And you act like in 3 years that he is able to reverse decades of overspending. You really are a give it to me now Democrat.
1. No, but you definitely don't keep giving them our nuclear secrets over bipartisan congressional objection the way trump has done.
2. Trump isn't letting people testify due to "absolute immunity". I don't care about his grades. Anyway, grades aren't something normally released by a president. Nothing was "locked" or sealed about Obama's transcripts. I don't need complete transparency, but I don't need the level of obstruction detailed in the Mueller report either.

3. Name somebody that I have ever supported.

4. It's not right to treat asylum seekers like illegals and to separate the families.

5. Why do the Saudis rent so many hotel rooms from Trump, why do all the lobbyists stay at Trump's hotel in DC? There are plenty of nice places.
6. This level of turnover is unprecedented.
7. Obama and Bush spent too much, but they were using debt to prop up the country to get out of the recession. What's Trump's excuse? Remember, he said he would eliminate the deficit.
 

gangstonc

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1. Then you cannot vote for Biden if he is the nominee.
2. SA is too important too ignore. Sorry, but it is the truth.
3. If translator notes are turned over no other world leader will speak with POTUS. Not just this one but all future presidents. Horrible precedent.
4. If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor.
5. The Clinton Foundation? Ever looked into their financial ties to foreign countries ? Trump is an international businessman.
6. He has made some mistakes but overall I think he has surrounded himself with good people.
7. Congress appropriates spending. Obama had more debt than the previous 43 presidents combined. Where were your complaints about that ?
1. I won't.
2. We don't have to ignore them, but the admin should at least admit that SA murdered him.
3. The JFK and Eisenhower libraries are full of these transcripts. Clinton recorded conversations with Yeltsin. Reagan's meetings with Gorbachev are fully documented. Nixon's conversations with Brezhnev were recorded. The facts don't agree with you.
4. That was one lie. Trump has told hundreds. Obama shouldn't have told that lie and Obamacare is a disaster.
5. The Clinton Foundation is also a cesspool. Trump plays the same games as Hillary. He's just as guilty as she is.
6. Haaaaaa!!!
7. Read Trump's budget that he put forth. I think Obama spent too much. I have complained about that. I'm no fan of Obama.
 

ghost

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His deficit is much less than Obama's and Bush's deficit. Um how do you figure he is doing a bad job at this. And you act like in 3 years that he is able to reverse decades of overspending. You really are a give it to me now Democrat.
Your first sentence does not support the data.

President George W. Bush: Total = $3.293 trillion
  • FY 2009 - $1.16 trillion. This amount is calculated from $1.413 trillion minus $253 billion from Obama's Stimulus Act.
  • FY 2008 - $459 billion.
  • FY 2007 - $161 billion.
  • FY 2006 - $248 billion.
  • FY 2005 - $318 billion.
  • FY 2004 - $413 billion.
  • FY 2003 - $378 billion.
  • FY 2002 - $158 billion.
President Barack Obama: Total = $6.785 trillion
  • FY 2017 - $666 billion. Although Trump requested additional spending, Congress did not approve it.
  • FY 2016 - $585 billion.
  • FY 2015 - $438 billion.
  • FY 2014 - $485 billion.
  • FY 2013 - $679 billion.
  • FY 2012 - $1.087 trillion.
  • FY 2011 - $1.300 trillion.
  • FY 2010 - $1.547 trillion. This is the sum of $1.294 trillion plus $253 billion from the Obama Stimulus Act that was attached to the FY 2009 budget.
President Donald Trump: Total Actual plus Budgeted = $4.040 trillion
  • FY 2021 - $1.068 trillion.
  • FY 2020 - $1.101 trillion.
  • FY 2019 - $1.092 trillion.
  • FY 2018 - $779 billion.
Trump is averaging over $1.0 trillion a year.. much more than Bush or Obama
He promised in his campaign he would eliminate the Federal Debt in 8 years.. if he stays in office that long he is projected to add about as much as Obama and Bush combined.
 
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