Nadocast "Tor Life Risk Day" Discussion

[MMWX]

I have never been a fan of Nadocast. I've made that pretty known. It's a twitter hype machine that paints every 10% hatched day as another 4/27. It is intentionally misleading for clicks. I was happy when Nadocast broke, and I wished it never came back.

I saw this today and it made me outraged. Forecasting literal deaths.

This is fearmongering. The textbook definition of it. And I cannot believe this meteorologist was stupid enough to share it. Guess he also cares more about clicks than accurate weather. I personally think he should be fired for sharing this graphic.

I'm not a mod, but I personally hope we ban any and all Nadocast shares on this forum. It's not accurate, it's not useful, and you sharing Nadocast promotes fearmongering.

 

[ColdFront]

I have never been a fan of Nadocast. I've made that pretty known. It's a twitter hype machine that paints every 10% hatched day as another 4/27. It is intentionally misleading for clicks. I was happy when Nadocast broke, and I wished it never came back.

I saw this today and it made me outraged. Forecasting literal deaths.

This is fearmongering. The textbook definition of it. And I cannot believe this meteorologist was stupid enough to share it. Guess he also cares more about clicks than accurate weather. I personally think he should be fired for sharing this graphic.

I'm not a mod, but I personally hope we ban any and all Nadocast shares on this forum. It's not accurate, it's not useful, and you sharing Nadocast promoting fearmongering.

Glorified hype machine. “Biggest day in 10 years” I’m glad Spann called this guy out. And anyone else on here that posts that stupid nadocast crap should get directed to this thread

 

[MMWX]

Is this really that much worse than all of the PDS TOR soundings that have flooded the forums the past week? Is it that much worse than an exaggerated high risk from the SPC? I have no affiliation with Nadocast, nor am I taking up for it, but a lot of models got this thing wrong.

It is. At least those sounding are generated through legitimate models used for forecasting.

Please help me find how nadocast comes up with it's outlooks. I've never been able to find it. Only then (if the computations make sense) will I say it's a legitimate model.

Oh, and help me understand the numbers that go into forecasting literal deaths.

Many legitimate CAMs used for forecasting this week's threat showed a downtrend this morning thankfully. We went from generational outbreak to "just" a violent outbreak.

If you think today "Atmospheric Anti-Climax," then I can't help you. Go tell the people of Tylertown, Bassfield, and Gordo that today "Atmospheric Anti-Climax" and shouldn't have been a high risk. It absolutely should have.

 

[cg9450]

Is this really that much worse than all of the PDS TOR soundings that have flooded the forums the past week? Is it that much worse than an exaggerated high risk from the SPC? I have no affiliation with Nadocast, nor am I taking up for it, but a lot of models got this thing wrong.

I'm not really sure that comparing apples to oranges of model v. model does much to flesh out the philosophical point of the approach between Hughes and Spann. I'm sure you know how both of them are, and Spann especially takes issue with hype and what I would call "YouTube culture" weather. I'd agree with Spann, because scaring people and "getting them to pay attention" as Hughes says, does nothing to prepare them-- it only drives clicks and metrics, and gets to a point to where we argue about this BS on an Internet forum, which is the point. People are popular when all press is good press, regardless if we hate it or not. I don't care how you feel about it, but Spann's always said, "hey, get a helmet, get a little airhorn from the dollar store, and stay out of mobile homes." Secondly, I frankly don't give a rip of "a lot of models got this thing wrong" because there's at least 30 people now who are dead. There's towns leveled. So what if we didn't have one of the worst daytime outbreaks since 2011?

I'm glad the models got it wrong, I hope you are too.

 

[KevinH]

You made a thread for this?

Bryan created that FAKE nadocast graphic. The percentages and wording used aren’t the words nadocast actually uses.

This is the actual graphic used given the time stamps used in the graphic he posted.

Does Bryan own nadocast or is he someone that just used them for his dumb post?

Have to be careful and place blame where it belongs man…

 

[MMWX]

You made a thread for this?

Bryan created that FAKE nadocast graphic. The percentages and wording used aren’t the words nadocast actually uses.

This is the actual graphic used given the time stamps used in the graphic he posted.
View attachment 36371
Does Bryan own nadocast or is he someone that just used them for his dumb post?

Have to be careful and place blame where it belongs man…

I have found at least one other instance of nadocast creating a death graphic.


Straight from their twitter page.

So no, Bryan did not create the graphic. He was stupid enough to share the generated graphic. I'm sure they create one for every outbreak, even if it doesn't get shared to twitter.

And for the record, if you think this thread is unnecessary, you didn't have to click on it.

 

[tlcrawford90]

I'm not really sure that comparing apples to oranges of model v. model does much to flesh out the philosophical point of the approach between Hughes and Spann. I'm sure you know how both of them are, and Spann especially takes issue with hype and what I would call "YouTube culture" weather. I'd agree with Spann, because scaring people and "getting them to pay attention" as Hughes says, does nothing to prepare them-- it only drives clicks and metrics, and gets to a point to where we argue about this BS on an Internet forum, which is the point. People are popular when all press is good press, regardless if we hate it or not. I don't care how you feel about it, but Spann's always said, "hey, get a helmet, get a little airhorn from the dollar store, and stay out of mobile homes." Secondly, I frankly don't give a rip of "a lot of models got this thing wrong" because there's at least 30 people now who are dead. There's towns leveled. So what if we didn't have one of the worst daytime outbreaks since 2011?

I'm glad the models got it wrong, I hope you are too.

I deleted my comment because I hadn’t read the commentary that went along with the graphic. My apologies. And unfortunately I was wrong about the models, looks like I spoke too soon.

 

[tlcrawford90]

It is. At least those sounding are generated through legitimate models used for forecasting.

Please help me find how nadocast comes up with it's outlooks. I've never been able to find it. Only then (if the computations make sense) will I say it's a legitimate model.

Oh, and help me understand the numbers that go into forecasting literal deaths.

Many legitimate CAMs used for forecasting this week's threat showed a downtrend this morning thankfully. We went from generational outbreak to "just" a violent outbreak.

If you think today "Atmospheric Anti-Climax," then I can't help you. Go tell the people of Tylertown, Bassfield, and Gordo that today "Atmospheric Anti-Climax" and shouldn't have been a high risk. It absolutely should have.

It is. At least those sounding are generated through legitimate models used for forecasting.

Please help me find how nadocast comes up with it's outlooks. I've never been able to find it. Only then (if the computations make sense) will I say it's a legitimate model.

Oh, and help me understand the numbers that go into forecasting literal deaths.

Many legitimate CAMs used for forecasting this week's threat showed a downtrend this morning thankfully. We went from generational outbreak to "just" a violent outbreak.

If you think today "Atmospheric Anti-Climax," then I can't help you. Go tell the people of Tylertown, Bassfield, and Gordo that today "Atmospheric Anti-Climax" and shouldn't have been a high risk. It absolutely should have.

I have no explanation for those things. I actually thought the subject was about the Nadocast graphic alone. Should have read the guys commentary that went along with it. My bad, tornado fan.

 

[KevinH]

I have found at least one other instance of nadocast creating a death graphic.


Straight from their twitter page.

So no, Bryan did not create the graphic. He was stupid enough to share the generated graphic. I'm sure they create one for every outbreak, even if it doesn't get shared to twitter.

And for the record, if you think this thread is unnecessary, you didn't have to click on it.

I didn’t say it wasn’t necessary, I just wondered why you made a thread for THIS lol

The graphic Bryan posted did not match the one on their Twitter page for the same time date and time. It is dumb that nadocast even uses the word death in their graphic.

Enjoy!

 

[David in SW Blount]

So the actual legend on the Nadocast Death Graphic says probability of a tornado death within 25 miles of a given point, and this TV Weather Bro from West Virginia interpreted that to mean the residents in the purple zone had a 6% chance of dying or knowing someone who would? Someone needs to go back to school and do some more mathing.