Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)

[andyhb]

Dryslot aloft in MO looks very volatile on the 12z Euro.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Unfortunately i think north Mississippi and west Tennessee will be under the gun for some pretty bad weather again.

Not really sure the magnitude of those areas for the tornado threat though.

Models (currently) aren't very backed in the low levels ; you'll likely see it change some in coming days as higher res modeling comes in. Not sure if the tornado threat will be as high as the last event. Time will tell though.

Definitely a event to keep a eye on for the Mississippi folks

Fyi this sounding may be a bit contaminated.

Curiously enough it notes the Tuscaloosa F4 that the previous event kept pulling up on analogs.
Spann covering that tornado below as well

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Also @JPWX I think you were spot on with the snowpack levels and elevated tornado seasons I remember your post and it seems like ever since you mentioned it and the corresponding seasons; things have really spiked with two potential higher end days again within a 8 day time frame and just seeing a ef4 and multiple significant ef3s. April will be off running.

Incredible post and point you made, I enjoy those tidbits that's one that stuck with me. Hopefully this season doesn't turn out as violent as some of the corresponding analogs to the high snowpacks thoughts.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Memphis nws going with discrete super cells late Friday

 

[Penitentes]

^^ The NWS Memphis AFD in question (emphasis mine)

Friday and Friday night...A potent upper trough will eject out of the 4 corners region Thursday night and push into the MS Valley on Friday. A powerful mid level jet will rotate into the region with lots of shear available as 0-6km bulk shear of 60-70 kts spreads over the area. The boundary layer is looking increasingly unstable with strong moisture advection will bringing mid 60s dewpoints into the region. SBCAPES in the 500 to 1000 J/KG range will support severe storms. The surface low is tracking well to the north along the the strongest lift which may leave the Mid-South in the region favorable for discrete supercells. CSU machine learning and SLU CIPS are all pointing toward a potentially significant severe event Friday afternoon into Friday night with all modes of severe weather possible. One piece of good news is that rainfall amounts will not be too heavy since there is no stalled front across the area ahead of the event to focus on and the system is fairly progressive.

 

[JPWX]

Also @JPWX I think you were spot on with the snowpack levels and elevated tornado seasons I remember your post and it seems like ever since you mentioned it and the corresponding seasons; things have really spiked with two potential higher end days again within a 8 day time frame and just seeing a ef4 and multiple significant ef3s. April will be off running.

Incredible post and point you made, I enjoy those tidbits that's one that stuck with me. Hopefully this season doesn't turn out as violent as some of the corresponding analogs to the high snowpacks thoughts.

Thank you! I honestly wouldn't have even considered it a possibility until I read the post that @Timhsv did about the California snowpack. His post got me to thinking.

 

[ColdFront]

 

[KevinH]

Y'all. One thing I would be concerned about going forward especially into April and after this last outbreak plus the previous recent outbreaks we've had is becoming relaxed with future outbreaks this Spring. We saw this in Spring 2011, where after multiple severe weather outbreaks, people quit heeding the warnings and paying attention.

Yep!

Regardless of what people are told, and how often, sooner or later, people are going to have to learn the hard way, sadly.

I have said it before and I will say it again: People can/will not take the weather as seriously as they should unless and until it affects them, by that time however, it is too late.

You cannot let your guard down when you live in a part of the country that is known for some of the most VIOLENT weather on the planet.

You just CANT!!!!!!! :/

 

[KevinH]

It's gunna be a big weather day across the mid south and south, maybe not as much dynamic support but you are gunna have a lot of high paramters and a more west to east component to storm motion, barely negative tilt if at all lol.

Not sure how much severe will make it into Alabama as it seems a pretty sharp cutoff could occur near the Mississippi Alabama state line. Id expect more wobbles in the future. Seems to be less dynamic support for the southeast but in turn more higher paramters.

Up further north also a significant chance more closer to the southeast quadrant of the low pressure.

And now that you have said that, watch Mother Nature flip you the bird and move things further SE into Dixie.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Unfortunately i think north Mississippi and west Tennessee will be under the gun for some pretty bad weather again.

Not really sure the magnitude of those areas for the tornado threat though.

Models (currently) aren't very backed in the low levels ; you'll likely see it change some in coming days as higher res modeling comes in. Not sure if the tornado threat will be as high as the last event. Time will tell though.

Definitely a event to keep a eye on for the Mississippi folks

Fyi this sounding may be a bit contaminated.

Curiously enough it notes the Tuscaloosa F4 that the previous event kept pulling up on analogs.
Spann covering that tornado below as well

View attachment 19294

Something I'm noticing with a lot of these soundings from latest NAM is a skinny area of instability.......and the SFC CAPE is lower that the MLCAPE.

A lot of times when MLCAPE is higher than SFC CAPE, you tend to see elevated hailers that don't really produce many tornadoes. Just an observation and something to keep an eye on.

 

[ColdFront]

Something I'm noticing with a lot of these soundings from latest NAM is a skinny area of instability.......and the SFC CAPE is lower that the MLCAPE.

A lot of times when MLCAPE is higher than SFC CAPE, you tend to see elevated hailers that don't really produce many tornadoes. Just an observation and something to keep an eye on.

Myself personally, I’m a bit more bullish on the 4/4 threat than this one. Do not take this as I’m sleeping on or downplaying this one.

 

[Austin Dawg]

I think just thunderstorms alone would not be very welcome back in Mississippi after last weekend. I have a feeling that we going to have to endure a lot more. We're going to have a long severe season.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Myself personally, I’m a bit more bullish on the 4/4 threat than this one. Do not take this as I’m sleeping on or downplaying this one.

Haven't seen anything yet to make me think an outbreak is imminent but I don't make that call until I'm in CAM range. Sure the wind profiles are concerning but the instability is lacking at the moment for Friday. The NAM's cold bias was evident last week and makes it not very reliable. Also NAM 3km is hot garbage for handling mixing.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

With cape 1000 to 1500 around midsouth , bulk shear 50 to 60 kts… storms shouldn’t have problem getting surface based . Caveat could be winds look mostly unidirectional…. See have holds true when get better cam short range time … still very bullish on the April 4 th threat . That one looks gut wrenching at this point be honest

 

[andyhb]

Haven't seen anything yet to make me think an outbreak is imminent but I don't make that call until I'm in CAM range. Sure the wind profiles are concerning but the instability is lacking at the moment for Friday. The NAM's cold bias was evident last week and makes it not very reliable. Also NAM 3km is hot garbage for handling mixing.

The issue with this is that the globals also aren't generally very good with instability/mixing either. Spreading strong wind fields across adequate moisture over a large area like this is bound to yield a problem somewhere, right now I'm thinking the Mid South and from MO into IL.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Something I'm noticing with a lot of these soundings from latest NAM is a skinny area of instability.......and the SFC CAPE is lower that the MLCAPE.

A lot of times when MLCAPE is higher than SFC CAPE, you tend to see elevated hailers that don't really produce many tornadoes. Just an observation and something to keep an eye on.

Never knew that thanks for the tidbit

 

[Scott81]

Sure would like to hear some mets chime in.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Sure would like to hear some mets chime in.

We have heard from Andy thus far ….

 

[JPWX]

Will be interesting to see who gets put in the Day 3 30% Enhanced Risk tomorrow. I would expect them to expand to include much of North MS. Don't know if they'll pull a Moderate Risk as soon as tomorrow, but it's something that would be considered closer in once again. You'll definitely see widespread dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s again. Seeing today's wording from NWS Memphis is concerning especially given how usually conservative they are when mentioning severe weather.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Moderate Risk

Buddy the real question is if they whip out a High Risk. (No)