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Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)

ColdFront

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cant lie, im not enjoying the slow but evident eastward extension. it's been gradual and in small amounts but plenty of time between now and then to bring cincy - and my nerves - into the mix.
One thing in Trey’s analog video to try and predict this season:

A lot of the year analogs to 2023 all had a pretty sizable outbreak or severe activity in the Ohio Valley, do with that what you will(1965/2012 being some of those analogs)
 
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JPWX

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Y'all. One thing I would be concerned about going forward especially into April and after this last outbreak plus the previous recent outbreaks we've had is becoming relaxed with future outbreaks this Spring. We saw this in Spring 2011, where after multiple severe weather outbreaks, people quit heeding the warnings and paying attention.
 
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@ashtonlemleywx, can you please post the newest run of this graphic and provide a link to view it.
uh25max_swath-us_sc-2023032712-120.jpg


Link to C-Shield Model
^^^^ Taylor Campbell, here is the link you requested. I keep it bookmarked in Google Chrome.
 
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UncleJuJu98

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It's gunna be a big weather day across the mid south and south, maybe not as much dynamic support but you are gunna have a lot of high paramters and a more west to east component to storm motion, barely negative tilt if at all lol.

Not sure how much severe will make it into Alabama as it seems a pretty sharp cutoff could occur near the Mississippi Alabama state line. Id expect more wobbles in the future. Seems to be less dynamic support for the southeast but in turn more higher paramters.

Up further north also a significant chance more closer to the southeast quadrant of the low pressure.
 

ColdFront

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SPC down to marginal risk for Thursday...capping will be an issue.

Maintained the 30% for Friday, but wording seems less bullish. Still may be a chase day for me since the triple point target shouldn't be too far of a drive and I don't have to work the next morning.
Surprising. Interested to see which way the models Go for Friday then. Or if this is the system before the system (4/4).
 

atrainguy

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