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Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
I’m an idiot - I was looking at the sounding @Edith posted in the 4/4 event thread. Disregard my comment @UncleJuJu98
Gail
Member
That path is RIGHT over my house.
Veer Back Veer
[/QUOTE]
Oh, ehhh, with higher end shear or high shear that's easier to overcome. claycochaser linked a article a while back showing that and the study; doesn't do a whole lot with higher shear events. When you get into closer range some of the VBV is less evident as well.
I remember that. Fred agreed VBV wasn’t always a death sentence for tornados either, right?
atrainguy
Member
Adam Lucio shared these images on his Facebook a few hours ago. I don't recognize the radar image on the right from this thread so I thought I'd share it in case it's anything interesting (assuming it's not old news/outdated already).
Think that's the nam 3km
Penitentes
Member
Hurrah! KLSX will be in action after all.
NorthGaWeather
Member
There are several papers showing that veer-back isn't a death sentence, and can even assist supercell maintenance.
ashtonlemleywx
Member
Little 12 zone on the NAM Supercell Composite from CIPS in Arky Delta.
Still my target as of now.
ashtonlemleywx
Member
I can picture the mod risk bubbles being in close alignment with these 2 areas.
CheeselandSkies
Member
18Z 3KM NAM now has multiple bands of semi-discrete cells with strong UH tracks across IA/MO/western IL. Even a few completely discrete cells out in front of those. And if it's underdoing the surface temperatures by a few degrees as it tends to do...
I'm almost afraid of what the HRRR is gonna show.
I'm almost afraid of what the HRRR is gonna show.
Yeah it's kinda worrying when the one model that is drastically conservative goes violent on you lol
andyhb
Member
This is truly incredible output from the 3 km NAM.
KCweatherboy
Member
It's interesting how the RAP and UKMET seem to be the most bullish on moisture. 60s dewpoints all the way up to Northern IL, southern WI. Different from a lot of the other solutions right now
Wouldn't doubt if that solution verified honestly, surprising that the cold bias ukmet says that along with the nam 3km.
Never thought I'd see the day where the 3km nam and ukmet are actually pretty darn accurate hahaha
ashtonlemleywx
Member
This is starting to give me March 28th, 2020 vibes. Jonesboro Arkansas got smoked that day.
andyhb
Member
This is starting to give me March 28th, 2020 vibes. Jonesboro Arkansas got smoked that day.
While there are similarities to this setup, it is important to note that there are some key differences. First and foremost is that the upper level jet with the 3/28/2020 trough was much more meridional than this one, which favors more entrainment of the sub-tropical branch of the jet and tends to lead to more junk convection. More zonal flow in the upper levels is almost universally more favorable for significant severe weather events.
aujerm
Member
To make sure I’m understanding correctly, you’re saying that Friday’s setup is actually more conducive than 3/28/20?While there are similarities to this setup, it is important to note that there are some key differences. First and foremost is that the upper level jet with the 3/28/2020 trough was much more meridional than this one, which favors more entrainment of the sub-tropical branch of the jet and tends to lead to more junk convection. More zonal flow in the upper levels is almost universally more favorable for significant severe weather events.