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invest 93L (40/40)

IdaliaHelene

IdaliaHelene

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northeastern Gulf:
An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of
Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
disturbance is forecast to move westward across Florida during the
next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday.
Environmental conditions appear favorable and some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the northeastern and north-central
portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part of this week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



Forecaster Bucci
 
Atlantic said:
Code Orange

View attachment 45105
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93):
An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of
Florida continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
primarily south of the center. This system is forecast to move
westward across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday and Tuesday night,
eventually moving into the northeastern Gulf by the middle part of
this week. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for
additional development if the system remains offshore, and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves across the
northeastern and north-central Gulf by the middle to latter part of
this week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Papin
Click to expand...
 
Code Orange
IMG_3954.jpeg
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93):
An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of
Florida continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
primarily south of the center. This system is forecast to move
westward across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday and Tuesday night,
eventually moving into the northeastern Gulf by the middle part of
this week. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for
additional development if the system remains offshore, and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves across the
northeastern and north-central Gulf by the middle to latter part of
this week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Papin
 
Early morning I'm awake (woo....) and things are getting spicier with 93L. It'll still take a day or so to consolidate, esp as it moves over the Peninsula. But after that, it could be off to the races.


Here's the spaghetti models. Of note, Google's DeepMind model is now on here in yellow.

1752571810085.png




The Hurricane Models aren't latching on to it yet (understandable, it isn't a consolidated system yet), and there's still every chance in the world this is just a rain producer. The Google DeepMind model has about 30% of cases going into the Big Bend before they can even develop, which seems plausible to me. The others venture towards Louisiana and have a chance to become a stronger TS or weak hurricane.

It's too early to really prognosticate, but IF this storm can stay away from land long enough, I think it has real chances to become a hurricane.
 
wx_guy said:
Early morning I'm awake (woo....) and things are getting spicier with 93L. It'll still take a day or so to consolidate, esp as it moves over the Peninsula. But after that, it could be off to the races.


Here's the spaghetti models. Of note, Google's DeepMind model is now on here in yellow.

View attachment 45120




The Hurricane Models aren't latching on to it yet (understandable, it isn't a consolidated system yet), and there's still every chance in the world this is just a rain producer. The Google DeepMind model has about 30% of cases going into the Big Bend before they can even develop, which seems plausible to me. The others venture towards Louisiana and have a chance to become a stronger TS or weak hurricane.

It's too early to really prognosticate, but IF this storm can stay away from land long enough, I think it has real chances to become a hurricane.
Click to expand...
so much for AI models predicting long term
remember AI heavily is based on past behaviors
one point
 
IdaliaHelene said:
so much for AI models predicting long term
remember AI heavily is based on past behaviors
one point
Click to expand...

I will happily take their predictions over (checks notes) numerology. <eyeroll>
 
Small bowling ball crossing the peninsula...

1752600068172.png
 
I’m still a little uncertain on 93L. If it manages to become a TC quickly enough and far enough south, it could intensify rapidly (maybe not RI, but something close enough to it)

The last time the U.S. has a Cat 1+ strike (stronger than Cat 1) in July was Hurricane Dolly in 2008, which was the second Cat 1+ storm of July 2008 after record long lived Hurricane Bertha (which was active at the same time as Dolly)

The last time the U.S. had a Cat 3+ strike in July was Hurricane Dennis of 2005, which struck near Florida’s panhandle as Cat 4.
 
Atlantic said:
I’m still a little uncertain on 93L. If it manages to become a TC quickly enough and far enough south, it could intensify rapidly (maybe not RI, but something close enough to it)

The last time the U.S. has a Cat 1+ strike (stronger than Cat 1) in July was Hurricane Dolly in 2008, which was the second Cat 1+ storm of July 2008 after record long lived Hurricane Bertha (which was active at the same time as Dolly)

The last time the U.S. had a Cat 3+ strike in July was Hurricane Dennis of 2005, which struck near Florida’s panhandle as Cat 4.
Click to expand...
Bertha and Dolly were not active as hurricanes at the same time. Dolly became a hurricane as Bertha (a tropical storm at the same time) was undergoing extratropical transition.
 
Here's the North Atlantic deep layer shear map ATM:
Screenshot 2025-07-15 at 1.57.39 PM.png
Looks pretty favorable for some shenanigans. Some of the warmest water in the world right now located right along where it is tracking into as well. This storm's evolution seems like it'll be almost entirely contingent on how long it stays over open water. I can see an episode of RI on the table depending on its track, but the maximum intensity I believe we'll see out of this thing is no more than a marginal C2.
 
Naked swirl with convection to the SW on vis now heading across. I don't like how much is already wrapping in from the gulf, but I do like how far north the swirl remains.

1752604875834.png

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