Latest medium-range model guidance suggests a significant short-wave
trough may dig a bit farther south into the Four Corners region,
early next week, than previous model runs suggested. While the
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian all support this trend, the ECMWF is the most
aggressive with height falls into the southern Rockies/High Plains
region which would likely support a stronger lee surface low over
northwest TX late day4 into the day5 period. If the ECMWF is
correct, the prospect for greater moisture/instability returning to
eastern OK/north TX ahead of the short wave will increase
considerably along with the threat for potential robust convection.
However, semi-persistent northwesterly flow regime has stubbornly
refused to retrograde appreciably this winter, and the GFS/Canadian
support a less amplified short wave. Given these uncertainties
severe predictability will remain low early next week. Although,
convective probabilities will increase markedly across the Arklatex
region by Tuesday ahead of this system.
We've been overperforming with highs on warmer days. We hit 70 today and that was several degrees above forecast.