COVID-19 detected in United States

[ghost]

Well... my area of NW Alabama is ranked in the top 5 in the country! But nothing we can be proud of... we are top 5 for percentage of our population unvaccinated. With the Delta variant starting to surge and showing it is more infectious and deadly... I hope more people will consider getting the vaccine

 

[Jacob]

Well... my area of NW Alabama is ranked in the top 5 in the country! But nothing we can be proud of... we are top 5 for percentage of our population unvaccinated. With the Delta variant starting to surge and showing it is more infectious and deadly... I hope more people will consider getting the vaccine

Right on time, we are seeing increases in all the same areas we saw increases last summer. Florida is seeing the largest increases, other parts of the Deep South are seeing increases, Arizona is increasing, and Southern California is quickly increasing too.

This was expected, and should continue for a few more weeks. The question is how high will this wave peak compared to the 2020 summer wave. This should be judged by hospitalizations and deaths. We should know in about 6 weeks how the summer 2021 wave compares to the summer 2020 wave.

 

[Jacob]

Next 3-4 weeks will be particularly interesting to watch across a handful of places. I'm most interested to see what happens in Israel, Florida, and Arizona. All three places had significant summer waves last year, and all three places now have in place significant levels of population immunity. So far so good, no signs of any increases in any of those areas.

This was a post I made in late May. All three areas are seeing increasing amounts of COVID at the moment. Still early in this wave, if the typical pattern holds it'll peak early August in most places in the sunbelt of the US.

 

[Jacob]

It is stunning how similar Canada and Michigan have been this year until vaccine rollout increased in the USA. The western NY map is not quite as heavily correlated but still looks more similar to Michigan and Canada than all the states in Michigan's region. No state in the Midwest has that kind of aggressive slope that Michigan has. But the western NY counties get close and Canada is just dead-on similar. Thus, my point is that the reason Michigan and the Western NY counties are seeing such a quick and sharp drop is because of better vaccination rates. Canada's numbers are slowly decreasing at a much lower rate of change.

It's just a theory. I would expect Michigan and the 5 western NY counties to be somewhat similar due to climate/weather and Canada border crossings. I think the border crossings and Canada's lower vaccination rates is a plausible explanation for why Michigan and the 5 western NY counties looked more like Canada than any place in the United States until recently. Just a hypothesis. I may be totally wrong.

Your post that I quoted and our discussion at the time was right at the start of May, when Michigan was dropping quickly from its peak and Canada was just starting to decline. I wanted to revisit this now that the spring wave is over and we have a much more clear picture of what occurred. The Ontario region and Michigan declined at virtually the same rate after peak, and have followed the same pattern since.

 

[ghost]

Right on time, we are seeing increases in all the same areas we saw increases last summer. Florida is seeing the largest increases, other parts of the Deep South are seeing increases, Arizona is increasing, and Southern California is quickly increasing too.

This was expected, and should continue for a few more weeks. The question is how high will this wave peak compared to the 2020 summer wave. This should be judged by hospitalizations and deaths. We should know in about 6 weeks how the summer 2021 wave compares to the summer 2020 wave.

Surely with vaccinations and people who have had the virus and survived... the peaks will be nothing near what it was last year. On the other hand hardly no one is social distancing or wearing masks and the more virulent Delta variant firmly establishing itself could negate some of that.

 

[Jacob]

Surely with vaccinations and people who have had the virus and survived... the peaks will be nothing near what it was last year. On the other hand hardly no one is social distancing or wearing masks and the more virulent Delta variant firmly establishing itself could negate some of that.

I expect the peaks to be lower, everywhere is starting from a much lower baseline and the amount of immunity present should significantly help.

 

[ghost]

I've got a Doctor friend who has been on the frontline treating Covid patients since the virus first started appearing in the Birmingham area. He posted this on social media and I thought I would share it here. Very informative...

Some thoughts on Covid this summer:
1. If you haven't had Covid and are unvaccinated, there is a significant likelihood you'll get Delta variant Covid in the next 60-90 days.
2. R0 represents how many people will become infected from one person with a particular organism. Delta variant Covid is believed to have an R0 as high as 6, more than twice the R0 value of previous Covid strains. If you research exponential spread you'll understand why this is a problem.
3. Delta variant Covid can be transmitted in as little as 5-10 seconds, much more quickly than previous strains.
4. Delta Covid is now the dominant strain in the US, passing the 50% threshold last week.
5. Vaccines provide protection against Delta variant. Previous infection, especially if mild, is less predictable to protect against Delta Covid.
6. 40% of Alabama residents have had at least one vaccine dose. Only 33% of Alabama residents are fully vaccinated. As usual, we are battling Mississippi for dead last.
7. Since Delta Covid is more easily transmitted Covid cases and hospitalizations are on the rise in Alabama and nationwide. The vast majority of admissions, believed to be over 95%, are in unvaccinated patients.
8. Most cases of Covid, even Delta Covid, will still be mild but some will be severe and some will unfortunately be deadly. Symptoms of Delta Covid differ from previous strains, initially producing more sinus symptoms with sore throat, and are less likely to cause loss of taste and smell.
9. As rapidly as the Delta variant is spreading there is limited time to get both doses of your vaccine. When school starts back I believe this may move rapidly through the younger population, especially with precautions removed. Most kids will do well. Some of the parents and grandparents will not, especially if unvaccinated.
Everyone wants this to be over, but it isn't. Vaccines are readily available and easy to find. Protect yourself and your family.
David B Wilhelm MD

 

[Jacob]

I'm taking a wait and see approach on "Delta" and how much of an effect it will have on the spread here in the US. We heard the exact same warnings for the UK variant (UK/Alpha/B117) back in the spring, and it became the dominant strain here while the winter wave faded away. Conditions are more favorable in the southern parts of the country during summer than the spring, hence last year's spread and this year's as well, so perhaps with Delta becoming the dominant strain during a favorable time period for spread we'll see a larger than expected bump during the summer.

It's worth noting that the Delta variant is estimated to only be around 35% of cases in the Deep South (as of 10 days ago), where the spread has been most pronounced. In the mountain West region (Utah, Colorado, Montana, Wyoming, Dakotas), the amount of spread has been less than the south yet the Delta variant makes up over 75% of cases.

 

[Jacob]

Another reason to suspect that the numbers, at least as far as deaths and hospitalizations go, this summer should be less than last year is the reduction in severe disease by the vaccines. Obviously this effect was hoped for, and so far the early numbers in this summer wave in Florida certainly seem to suggest this is occurring.

The following graph is a snapshot comparing the 7 day averages from Jan 8 to July 10th. Dramatic reduction in the amount of ER visits in the older population.

 

[warneagle]

We've seen a slight uptick in cases here in Virginia, presumably due to the delta variant, but no real change in deaths (yet). We've got over 53% of the population fully vaccinated, which is encouraging but obviously still not good enough.

 

[Jacob]

One oddity occurring at the moment is in Europe. In general, the countries with the highest rates of vaccination rates are seeing a surge at the moment, while the states with the lowest vaccination rates are seeing case rates stay low. This is likely just the wave starting in the west and eventually spreading east, but it'll be interesting to compare how the nations fair.

 

[warneagle]

I'm curious if the countries with higher vaccination rates have relaxed restrictions more than the less vaccinated countries. Of course, we don't know if those cases are in people who were vaccinated or not. If countries with high vaccination rates have relaxed restrictions, it could lead to a big surge among the unvaccinated section of the population.

 

[Jacob]

I'm curious if the countries with higher vaccination rates have relaxed restrictions more than the less vaccinated countries. Of course, we don't know if those cases are in people who were vaccinated or not. If countries with high vaccination rates have relaxed restrictions, it could lead to a big surge among the unvaccinated section of the population.

Ill try to look later this evening when I get a chance. I think the database I’m pulling from has a stringency index for each country

 

[Jacob]

Haven't figured out a good way to display it graphically, but there's no correlation between higher vaccination rates and less stringent restrictions. It varies quite a bit from country to country, regardless of whether they fall in the higher spread or lower spread regions.

 

[warneagle]

That's interesting. It's very different from the pattern in the US, where the surges are stronger in states with lower vaccination rates.

Maybe it's a situation where the unvaccinated populations of countries with higher vaccination rates are observing COVID precautions less rigorously than unvaccinated people in countries with lower vaccination rates? That would make sense even if those countries' governments hadn't made major changes to the COVID restrictions yet.

 

[Jacob]

That's interesting. It's very different from the pattern in the US, where the surges are stronger in states with lower vaccination rates.

Maybe it's a situation where the unvaccinated populations of countries with higher vaccination rates are observing COVID precautions less rigorously than unvaccinated people in countries with lower vaccination rates? That would make sense even if those countries' governments hadn't made major changes to the COVID restrictions yet.

The US surges are occurring in the same geographic areas they occurred last year at this time. Where it is currently spreading the most in the US is largely unrelated to the vaccination rates of the areas, it just happens to be in some of the areas that are at those lower rates. In theory those areas are susceptible to higher peaks however.

 

[Evan]

The US surges are occurring in the same geographic areas they occurred last year at this time. Where it is currently spreading the most in the US is largely unrelated to the vaccination rates of the areas, it just happens to be in some of the areas that are at those lower rates. In theory those areas are susceptible to higher peaks however.

I have to strongly disagree. Look at the NYTimes County level data. Current COVID hotspots match almost perfectly with areas of lower vaccination rates. The only exceptions are South Florida and South Texas near the Mexican border. There's a very simple explanation for South Florida and the parts of Texas near the border. Many foreign nationals came to Dade and Broward counties to get vaccinated. Likewise in the border counties of Texas. With the way vaccination counts are done, there's not an easy way to control for this in most areas.

I don't believe seasonality explains this because, as I already stated, the county level data shows lower vaccination areas are the places with sharp rises in case counts. But, on a state level approach, why is southern Missouri and most of Arkansas so bad whereas Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, Indiana, and Tennessee are not. And, if you look at the county level data, the county hotspots in states bordering Missouri and Arkansas all have lower vax rates like Missouri/Arkansas whereas the better vaccinated counties are at or below 10 cases per 100k whereas the hotspot counties are 40 - 120 cases per 100k. You can see this data by looking at the NYTimes' COVID Tracker site.

Besides that the areas you've previously referred to in making this argument all PEAKED around July 7th - 18th. We're nowhere near a peak yet in most of these areas. We're on an accelerated upslope. No, I think the conclusion that the Delta variant and low vax rates are what is responsible.

As an example to back this up, almost 52% of new cases in Israel are among those 0-19 years old while that age group is less than 36% of Israel's population. For obvious reasons, these are the least vaccinated groups in Israel. And, this is happening even though all prior evidence points to the fact that those under 19 are way less likely to contract COVID than those in older age groups.

Infographic: Covid-19 Burden Now Heaviest On Israel's Youth

This chart shows the share of Israeli Covid-19 cases by age group in the month up to July 05, 2021.

www.google.com

Israeli population by age can be fine in numerous places online.

We know Delta is say more transmisible. We know we're seeing many more severe cases in those under 30 in the United States than last year. We know those under 30 are less likely to be vaccinated than older peer groups. We know from hospital reporting and county/state health departments that reports are that almost all (some quoting numbers as high as 99%) of those being hospitalized or dying from COVID right now are unvaccinated.

This article on CNBC looked at 463 counties with at least 100 cases per 100k. 80% of them have vax rates below 40%. It's obvious that transmission is being driven by those who are unvaccinated -- especially in areas with low vaccination rates.

Here's a map showing where low vaccination rates meet high case counts as U.S. Covid infections surge

A CNBC analysis of vaccination rates and Covid cases shows there are 463 counties across the U.S. with high rates of infection — more than twice the U.S. rate.

www.google.com

Do I think seasonality and weather plays some role in COVID transmission and cases? Of course. But, I think it is a very small factor comparable to something like getting different gas mileage if you use 89 octane versus 87 octane. The reason is because we have vaccines now. There was likely more of a correlation before widespread vaccine availability. Now that vaccines are available that's by far the predominate factor.

 

[Jacob]

I don't have the time to formulate a full response right now, but I think you are mixing transmission on small scale and large scale areas vs. what I'm arguing. Vaccination rate could absolutely be a driver in a micro-scale (say, Jefferson County vs. Blount county), but on a macro scale seasonality is driving where it spreads (Alabama vs. Wisconsin). However I don't see any correlation in Alabama and Florida (only two I've had a chance to look at) between vaccination rates at the county level and case counts at the county level.

 

[Jacob]

We know Delta is say more transmisible. We know we're seeing many more severe cases in those under 30 in the United States than last year. We know those under 30 are less likely to be vaccinated than older peer groups. We know from hospital reporting and county/state health departments that reports are that almost all (some quoting numbers as high as 99%) of those being hospitalized or dying from COVID right now are unvaccinated.

Unfortunately, those insanely high results are almost certainly data-manipulation/lying with statistics. Those numbers will break down completely soon, and already break down if you choose a more recent starting point. In Israel this past week, of the 81 people hospitalized with severe COVID, 73 of those were fully vaccinated. This isn't too surprising, given that unvaccinated people under 20 are still at less risk from COVID than a vaccinated older person. It should be expected that a higher percentage of hospitalizations here to be unvaccinated people, but it will not come anywhere near the 95-99% numbers some are pushing.

The other potentially impactful stat coming out of Israel is that it appears those with previously natural infection are much better protected against Delta than those that are vaccinated with no prior infection. We'll have to see if those numbers hold up over the next few months, and if they end up being replicated here in the US.

 

[Evan]

Unfortunately, those insanely high results are almost certainly data-manipulation/lying with statistics. Those numbers will break down completely soon, and already break down if you choose a more recent starting point. In Israel this past week, of the 81 people hospitalized with severe COVID, 73 of those were fully vaccinated. This isn't too surprising, given that unvaccinated people under 20 are still at less risk from COVID than a vaccinated older person. It should be expected that a higher percentage of hospitalizations here to be unvaccinated people, but it will not come anywhere near the 95-99% numbers some are pushing.

The other potentially impactful stat coming out of Israel is that it appears those with previously natural infection are much better protected against Delta than those that are vaccinated with no prior infection. We'll have to see if those numbers hold up over the next few months, and if they end up being replicated here in the US.

It's neither data manipulation nor "lying" it's from a reputable study performed by the Cleveland Clinic:

COVID-19 Vaccines

Vaccines are seen as one of the best ways to stop COVID-19. Learn more about the types of vaccines, including the newly approved Novavax.

www.webmd.com

That study is backed up by the CDC's own data and several other studies as found here:

Unvaccinated individuals now account for the vast majority of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the U.S., according to available data

COVID-19 vaccines authorized by the U.S Food and Drug administration have proved highly effective at preventing severe disease and death in vaccinated individuals. Over 95% of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths from the past few months occurred among unvaccinated people and could be avoidable...

healthfeedback.org

If we're speaking to the Delta variant, specifically, the UK has found full vaccination was 96% effective at preventing hospitalization.

The recent Israeli numbers, which are updated weekly, are quite similar finding that being fully vaccinated is 93% effective against being hospitalized:

Delta Variant Key to Breakthrough Infections in Vaccinated Israelis

The country's Ministry of Health released figures on how well the Pfizer vaccine prevents mild and severe COVID-19 in the era of circulating Delta variant.

www.medscape.com

I would definitely like to see a link to your stats on Israeli hospitalizations as the Israeli government's stats that they post at https://www.gov.il/en/departments/guides/information-corona?chapterIndex=1 -- doesn't show any numbers in the last several weeks that match yours.

The only thing I can find referring to natural immunity in Israel is stuff on fringe nutter anti-vax sites. Have you been vaccinated, Jacob? Because it certainly sounds like your pushing an agenda that vaccines aren't effective at preventing COVID infection, serious illness hospitalization, or death. All reputable studies have shown otherwise.