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Severe WX April 3rd-5th, 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley)

andyhb

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High ceiling yes, but what about confidence?
I have confidence that there will be severe weather next week and that it should be an above climo period, but ejection of the individual waves will decide whether the ceiling is approached or not.
 

KevinH

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I have confidence that there will be severe weather next week and that it should be an above climo period, but ejection of the individual waves will decide whether the ceiling is approached or not.
Fair.

There is growing consensus about how violent April could end up being this year… *sigh*
 

Austin Dawg

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Am I missing something here? It looks like it's going to form push through and then reform and push through again. Is this gonna be a multi day event from one system?

ETA: I'm asking this because some of the worst outbreaks I can remember happened over the period of a couple of days.
 

Timhsv

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FsV8GogWcAMKECt
 

andyhb

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spccoday7.severe.latest.png

HOWEVER, ON TUESDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS
EAST AND SPREADS INTENSE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
LOWER/MID-MS VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY, A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
SURGE EAST. RICH GULF MOISTURE ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL
SUPPLY PLENTY OF INSTABILITY, AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-MS/LOWER OH
VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH AND TN VALLEY.

Large D7 area outlined in the latest D4-8 outlook.
 

UK_EF4

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Can’t remember the last time seeing moderate severe probs at Day 7 on CSU MLP guidance.

Edit: image doesn’t seem to be uploading - annoying
 

Timhsv

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
159 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

"By the start of next week, a pattern will set up where we can expect
multiple waves of weather. There is still a lot of discrepancy
between the Euro and GFS, but suffice it to say, I hope the GFS
forecast soundings don`t pan out Monday or Tuesday. While there
isn`t much in the way of supporting lift on Monday, we could get
this assist on Tuesday and if verified, we`re going to be busy.
As
we always say, there`s a long way to go and plenty of model runs
between now and then, but it`s worth watching closely.
 
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