Severe WX April 3rd-5th, 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley)

[Edith]

As the above image illustrates, a lot of ground will need to be covered.

Good illustration. Let’s see how this plays out. I could personally see it getting close to your outline but we will see

 

[Edith]

Here is the newest sounding ( Tennessee valley) and map from the GFS.

 

[cincywx]

Here is the newest sounding ( Tennessee valley) and map from the GFS.

some pretty prevalent VBV on that one

 

[aujerm]

Is it just me or is the gfs running about a day behind with the progression of the system compared to the euro?

 

[Edith]

Is it just me or is the gfs running about a day behind with the progression of the system compared to the euro?

I noticed that as well. Definitely enough to disrupt

 

[Edith]

Is it just me or is the gfs running about a day behind with the progression of the system compared to the euro?

No you are correct

 

[Gail]

My grandmother passed away in 2015, but she did live through the 3/21/32, 4/3/74 and 4/27/11 outbreaks. All three directly affected our county. I have lived through 4/3/74 and 4/27/11 and if I live until my 80's, I can almost guarantee I will live through another "once-in-a-lifetime" outbreak.

I like how Spann calls them generational outbreaks. Once per generation. That seems more feasible than once in a lifetime since you can live through many family generations.

 

[ColdFront]

I like how Spann calls them generational outbreaks. Once per generation. That seems more feasible than once in a lifetime since you can live through many family generations.

I really believe that 3/21/32 outbreak was really, really, really bad. It’s eerie how a lot of the storms and even the morning round of storms mirrored 4/27.

It’s untelling the true amount of tornados/casualties due to technology, and the news not really focusing on communities with a high amount of black populations.

 

[The Nino]

New Euro

better get that phone on a charger

 

[cincywx]

Euro progression

yo i think these are for the system at the end of this week

 

[Edith]

yo i think these are for the system at the end of this week

Good catch

 

[Edith]

This is the correct one for this thread

 

[JBishopwx]

D6/7 CSU:

 

[DetectiveWX]

I’m not sure we know exactly how common those very high end outbreaks actually are, but I bet you there was someone on earth that was alive through the 1932 Dixie, 1974, and 2011 outbreaks.

I would argue Enigma, Dixie 1932, Palm Sunday, April 1974, and April 27,2011 are all qualifying as the upper echelon of outbreaks. What kind of time scale they are on is up for debate.

Heck, Palm Sunday 1920, Deep South 1908 and 1920, Tupelo/Gainesville, Tri-State 1925 and May 1896 and 1917 sequences are upper tier in terms of death and violence.

 

[Penitentes]

KLSX maintenance postponed.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

KLSX maintenance postponed.

I forget which one had it (not this one) but there was a forum I was a member of that had a smiley animation with the little smiley guy's head "running" back and forth, pumping his arms and going "Woohoo! Woohoo!" If this forum had that available, I would use it here.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

I really believe that 3/21/32 outbreak was really, really, really bad. It’s eerie how a lot of the storms and even the morning round of storms mirrored 4/27.

It’s untelling the true amount of tornados/casualties due to technology, and the news not really focusing on communities with a high amount of black populations.

Agreed. Additionally, the 2/19/1884 outbreak was likely as large and intense of an outbreak as 3/21/32. Then you have many regional tornado outbreaks on top of these larger scale events.

 

[andyhb]

To be fair, when’s the last time a similar D7 ensemble mean verified? At the very least I think the aerial coverage of strong instability will contract significantly, once closer to D1. I am still waiting to see how well Friday’s upcoming event matches runs from D4 and earlier. Of course, modelled projections verified quite well for 24 March, so perhaps we are finally abandoning the tendency to underperform relative to projections. And of course, before anyone else mentions it, I may as well point out the numerological coincidences:

Tuesday, 4 Apr 2023
Wednesday, 3 Apr 1974

Fiftieth anniversary to boot. Not that next Tuesday will come even remotely close, but still...after all, 27 Apr 2011 was on a Wednesday + seven years...

This is a dangerous assumption to be making, especially as we move further into the season.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The EHI Is extremely high with this event in the mid south and portions of the extreme east plains. By golly this one will have incredible paramters.

 

[warneagle]

Still a decent spread between the GFS and Euro in terms of placement of the surface low but either way there are going to be some potent parameters in place. I pulled this from near Topeka and there are some uh, red flags in that analog box.