2024 Tropical Cyclone season discussion

[Casuarina Head]

I don't think I have to explain myself or my thoughts. The January's I listed are the only ones where a tropical storm or greater DID NOT form in the western Pacific. I was making a observation on the lack of western Pacific activity thus far and THERE is a teleconnection of lack of western Pacific activity leading to greater activity in the Atlantic. I'm so sorry I didn't mention your list of years. I do my research and present my thoughts. That means I use and choose my own years that match up with current ENSO pattern.

@JPWX Yet in the italicised you just did, unless my eyes deceive me. If my post did not merit a response, then what is the point of further discussion?

At any rate, I was only mentioning that, to me at least, I did not see a correlation in terms of “hyperactive” ACE (you may be looking at named storms in both basins, and a correlation may well be apparent there). Based on your list of years, I do not see a strong correlation between the absence of West-Pacific storms in January and seasonal hyperactivity ACE-wise in the Atlantic. Personally, I consider ACE to be more meaningful an indicator in terms of how severe a season is, given that I feel the number of named storms in the Atlantic has been inflated since standards for classification were lowered by the early 2000s, thereby feeding certain narratives about climate change and TC activity that I find to be misleading.

If I am not mistaken, you could be correct in terms of named storms, and I could be correct in terms of ACE. We might be looking at different sides of the same problem.

 

[Atlantic]

The South Atlantic of all places trying to get in on the action of the Southern Hemisphere now:

View attachment 23889View attachment 23890View attachment 23891View attachment 23892View attachment 23893
Procuror front of the possible South Atlantic system

Tropical Storm Akara formed from the front above. It is the first fully tropical cyclone since Tropical Storm Iba 2019 in the South Atlantic. NOAA is tracking Akara at the time of this writing:



and a current view of Tropical Storm Akara:



The Brazilian Navy has the intensity of Akara at 50 mph currently.

 

[Atlantic]

In the main tropics, we have Moderate Tropical Storm Eleanor in the SWIO:

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[Atlantic]

What is the image?

 

[JBishopwx]

Here is a link to the changes with more details: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_New_Products_Updates_2024.pdf
-Expansion of Spanish products,
-Issuance of U.S. watches and warnings on Intermediate advisories:
- Extension of tropical storm (39 mph, 34 kt) and 58 mph, 50 kt)) wind radii forecasts to days 4 and 5:
-Weblinks in the Public Advisory:
-Change to the time zone reference in the eastern Pacific
-Experimental Cone Graphic with a depiction of inland watches and warnings for the United States
-Experimental international tropical cyclone rainfall graphics:
-New Marine Forecast Product “Offshore Waters Forecast for the southwestern North Atlantic Ocean

 

[Atlantic]

The tropics have gone quiet ahead of the SHEM's peak season. With the NHEM no storms are expected still as of now. Now even NOAA is starting to say the Atlantic may be very active this year, and their forecast for the season (which releases in May) hasn't even arrived yet.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[JPWX]

Hurricane Carlotta is the latest forming first Eastern Pacific Hurricane in 21 years! 2003 was the latest on record with the first hurricane not forming until August 24th.

 

[JPWX]

If Gilma becomes a major hurricane, it'll be the 2nd latest first major hurricane on record behind 2013 when the first major didn't develop until November going back to 2000

 

[JPWX]

Also it has taken the Western Pacific 238 days to near a total ACE of 54 this year. The Atlantic remains at ACE of 55.1. Normal ACE for this time in the Atlantic is just 26.7 while the normal for this time of year is 119.3 in the Western Pacific.

 

[slenker]

Also it has taken the Western Pacific 238 days to near a total ACE of 54 this year. The Atlantic remains at ACE of 55.1. Normal ACE for this time in the Atlantic is just 26.7 while the normal for this time of year is 119.3 in the Western Pacific.

Is this large Atlantic “cold pool” to the south that they’ve been talking about contribute to inactivity of August?

 

[JPWX]

Is this large Atlantic “cold pool” to the south that they’ve been talking about contribute to inactivity of August?

No. That cold pool was due to Ernesto moving through there. The lack of inactivity for the rest of this month was due in large part to the MJO going into Phase 4 and 5. Phases 8, 1, 2, and 3 are the most favorable Atlantic phases. However, the most recent year with only 2 named tropical systems in the Atlantic in August was 2018. You had Florence and Gordon in September and then Michael in October. So inactivity in August doesn't correspond with lack of activity the rest of the season.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Super Typhoon Yagi on track to hit close to major populations of China such as Haikou and Zhanjiang.

 

[TornadoFan]

And we've got hurricane John closing on the Pacific Coast of Mexico, NHC already expecting to reach major status before landfall.

 

[Clancy]

John means serious business in the E. Pac.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[slenker]

Wasn’t John a tropical storm this morning?

 

[TornadoFan]

Wasn’t John a tropical storm this morning?

Yes, and it wasn't even a tropical depression yesterday.

 

[TornadoFan]

Hurricane John managed to make it to major status.