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Severe WX 1/24/21-1/26/21 Severe Event (Fultondale, AL)
- Thread starter rolltide_130
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Bama Ravens
Member
People will no doubt complain if it doesn’t get rated higher, as though it really changes the ultimate impact.
Equus
Member
Definitely seems like it should be finalized higher, but BMX has been very conservative in recent years so it wouldn't be too surprising. I note that with all walls down, 135 is below the absolute lower bound on the EF scale of the most heavily destroyed homes, so it'd be breaking the constraints of the scale to go that low. EF2 is a pretty standard and reasonable preliminary tag though.
It is made extremely clear word for word in that report that the rating is just the first preliminary estimate. They are setting the baseline for the minimum of what this is while they get deeper into building construction and such.
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While it's still far too early to know for sure, I do believe the final rating will be in the EF3 range. The 2019 El Reno tornado also received a preliminary EF2 rating though the final rating for that tornado was EF3.
Of course some people say there could be some discrepancies between survey teams; for example, what one survey team determines is high end EF2 damage another survey team could assign a low-end EF3 rating and vice versa. We saw this after the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado in 2011 where one of the survey teams rated the damage at the Chastain Manors Apartment Complex as EF5.
Of course some people say there could be some discrepancies between survey teams; for example, what one survey team determines is high end EF2 damage another survey team could assign a low-end EF3 rating and vice versa. We saw this after the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado in 2011 where one of the survey teams rated the damage at the Chastain Manors Apartment Complex as EF5.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Props to @Fred Gossage for holding serve with this setup's significant potential when SPC didn't even give it a slight until 20Z the day of.
Equus
Member
You really only see preliminary EF3s on obviously violent tornadoes that are likely to get bumped to at least 160, it's not surprising that the initial prelim would hold back since they've not had much time yet at all. Jacksonville 2018 was also a preliminary EF2, ironically so was the first EF4 on 4/12 last year.
warneagle
Member
Well this is an instructive, if unpleasant, visualization:
My friend drives a school bus in Fultondale and she said that she has 9 kids on New Castle Road who ride her bus and 3 more on Pine Hill Road. She used to live in Darlene Estates herself. All of the kids on New Castle Road lost their homes. The fatality was a high school boy. His younger brother rides her bus too. Their parents were hurt pretty bad. Mom and dad both had an arm injury but dad had a neck/ spinal injury. He had just gotten out of surgery when she posted. This is all so awful.
Bama Ravens
Member
I wanted to give a shout out to @Richardjacks for his phenomenal video from last night. Great footage.
Thanks. I am fortunate to have a great view from my home looking north from red mountain.
Bama Ravens
Member
Finally seeing pictures of my cousin’s house in Fultondale. I think it being brick is what saved them. Most of the roof is gone but the outer walls seem to be standing.
Equus
Member
Even just being preliminary, it's a worrying precedent that bolted frame home-leveling tornadoes are tagged EF2 at any point; this is the sort of damage that may have been tagged F4 twenty years ago. That's too high, probably, but it's hard enough to compare modern tornadoes with earlier F scale ratings already. I know the media wants to get a rating out there to report on asap but I wish they'd hold off on a preliminary until they've surveyed more to avoid looking like it's gonna go down as underrated. Everyone's reporting on it like that's the final rating already.
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Yeah, I really hope they upgrade, as this was very clearly an EF3 tornado.
My understanding has always been that if a frame home is leveled, a rating of EF4 is assumed, though is frequently downgraded to EF3 if there is poor construction or contextual discrepancies. I’m fine with that. But assigning EF2 is two full steps down the scale from the assumed rating of EF4, and I do not agree with it. What’s wrong with bumping it down just one EF scale level? Why is it now acceptable to downgrade that much? I agree it’s a bad precedent for sure.
Now with that said, I have seen ridiculously low-balled preliminary EF2 ratings adjusted to a more appropriate rating in recent times, namely the Elon, VA EF3 and the Sartinville, MS EF4. People were upset about those initially, but the ratings were quickly adjusted to something more appropriate, and that very well may happen here.
But then we have events like Adairville, KY and Harrisburg, AR which should have been upgraded to EF3, but never were. We’ll just have to see...
The EF2 prelim is 1 mph below EF3. That and them stressing very hard that it is a preliminary rating should make it very clear that they are quite likely to upgrade. I do hate how the very first preliminary rating for a tornado is reported by agencies like it is the final rating though. That has always bothered me.
Equus
Member
Yeah, media has been reporting it as if it's final so it'd be nice if they would hold off until they're fairly certain on a rating (except maybe in the case of, say, high end EF4 vs EF5 which could take time)
I'm not sure what the stigma is against assigning EF3, can understand in borderline cases but yeah there have been multiple cases that required further revision when it was clear EF2 was far too low. Ironically, the raw EF scale does not allow an EF2 rating to a completely leveled home even in the lower bound, so for many of those past cases, would be nice to have an explanation why that was deemed appropriate
I'm not sure what the stigma is against assigning EF3, can understand in borderline cases but yeah there have been multiple cases that required further revision when it was clear EF2 was far too low. Ironically, the raw EF scale does not allow an EF2 rating to a completely leveled home even in the lower bound, so for many of those past cases, would be nice to have an explanation why that was deemed appropriate
That right there is my biggest gripe. The EF scale doesn’t even go that low when it comes to leveled homes. By going with EF2, they are actually breaking the rules and guidelines set by the scale. That’s not ok.
Equus
Member
Yup, I don't know why we have guidelines when sometimes WFOs don't want to go by them. It has always been my understanding that the lower bound value covered those cases with exceptionally poor construction, so there's no need to break the constraints.
This one I assume will end up in the EF3 range (the BMX event page header even says so) so shouldn't be one of those odd cases, but I still think holding off on a preliminary rating until finishing the most heavily damaged areas would've left things a bit clearer. Some media sources may not report on the upgrade after already reporting the preliminary rating as if it were final.
That said, I can't say I envy the NWS surveyors right now trudging through ruined lives and soaked ground during a pandemic.
This one I assume will end up in the EF3 range (the BMX event page header even says so) so shouldn't be one of those odd cases, but I still think holding off on a preliminary rating until finishing the most heavily damaged areas would've left things a bit clearer. Some media sources may not report on the upgrade after already reporting the preliminary rating as if it were final.
That said, I can't say I envy the NWS surveyors right now trudging through ruined lives and soaked ground during a pandemic.
Bevo
Member
I am so sorry to hear that...
I work in a school right now and always have extra books, supplies, and clothes on hand for students. If your friend knows what is needed please let me know and I can send them.
This escalated so quickly and I only just found out about it right now after seeing Twitter trends.