Severe Weather 2023

CheeselandSkies said:

Yeah, no question it has been slow. At least with the repeated rounds of activity over this past week (although I wouldn't call it an "insane setup" as *ahem* a certain chaser did on social media) in the High Plains, there's something for the chasers out there to do. Sure glad I scored on 3/31, but gradually getting madder at myself for busting on 4/4 if I'd known it would be my last good opportunity for another two months at minimum. Really don't expect the season to be over at that point especially this far north.

Regarding the Atlantic hurricane season, a lot of interest to see how the rare El Nino vs. +AMO setup will play out.

Click to expand...

Look for a slow hurricane season

This Atlantic hurricane season is one that could go either way. One key thing that you didn't have during the previous El Nino's like 97-98 and 15-16 is a much warmer Atlantic. The one year I've been going with is 2004 which did see a slow start but got kicking once August/September set in. Another thing to watch is how active the Western Pacific gets. When people hear El Nino, they automatically think O hurricane season won't be as bad or as active. While that is true and a valid assumption, not all El Nino's are the same. 2004 happened to be a Modoki El Nino and there's talk that this could be more Central Pacific than Eastern Pacific based. In fact, 2004 also had a category 5 Western Pacific typhoon in May as well.

Have a couple TOR warned cells in New Mexico at the moment. At least FDX is finally back up.

Vincer Waelti and Reed Timmer are streaming from there now.

Also a new vid out from TornadoTalk

CFS has been suggestive for a while now that stormier weather could return to portions of the central US (other than the immediate High Plains) around June 10th, give or take. The GFS at the tail end of its range seems to concur. The signal has been consistent enough for me to book the week of June 12th off for a potential chasecation.

Tornado just caught by Charles Peek on TWC. I just watched it over at my Grandma's house

Fort Stockton getting it done.

Got a landspout in eastern Nebraska now.

I see that the signal for a pattern that could induce significant severe episodes from the Central Plains to the East Coast has grown for the 9-11 day range.

CIPS extended-range guidance signaling increased potential for severe storms in the long-term.

Taylor Campbell said:

I see that the signal for a pattern that could induce significant severe episodes from the Central Plains to the East Coast has grown for the 9-11 day range.

Click to expand...

That's the period I'm taking off.

Clancy said:

CIPS extended-range guidance signaling increased potential for severe storms in the long-term.
View attachment 20419

Click to expand...

That favors MCS activity too for the Mid-South region.

Northeast Oklahoma - Tuesday June 13th @ 4PM CDT.

Nashville, TN. June 14th at 21Z. May get a little crazy here in the South next week....

FYI the last wind driven Moderate Risk issued for parts of North MS into Alabama in June was June 5th, 2014.

Haven't really seen any big June tornado events in the few years I've been tracking the weather. Are these the kind of setups that usually yield tornadoes and/or possible outbreaks in June?

KCweatherboy said:

Haven't really seen any big June tornado events in the few years I've been tracking the weather. Are these the kind of setups that usually yield tornadoes and/or possible outbreaks in June?

Click to expand...

Not sure about tornadoes but I recall a lot of big hail events in the early 90's that have been pretty few and far between since then