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Severe Weather 2023

UncleJuJu98

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Not sure how to share the thread put that's the first post.
Consensus is becoming clear a threat of severe weather somewhere from Texas to Georgia will come to fruition in the time frame of the 8th to the 10th.

With the 18z GFS becoming more bullish on instability with 1000j of instability pushing into central Alabama. With forecasted timing being around peak heating for Mississippi and Alabama currently; sufficient to moderate amount of instability along with sufficient upper air shear should be present for a squall line / semi broken squall line to make it's way through the south with at least a low tornado damaging wind threat.

Details are bound to change! But synoptically at this point a low threat of severe weather seems possible.
 

JPWX

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The 12z GFS is showing multiple storm systems moving through from the 10th onward. With the Gulf running well above normal except near the coast, each one will have to be monitored for severe weather. Another threat that is of greater concern given how wet it's been is the flash flood risk. The Euro/Canadian Weeklies and GFS Ensemble Extended shows well above normal precipitation
 

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Taylor Campbell

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A severe threat this week, and potentially two next week. Current guidance is indicative that the 9-11 day period could be a widespread and significant threat. Below is a look at the GFS/EURO/GEM valid 6pm next Wednesday.

E751A17F-3227-4F66-BEE9-13D6F0ED0039.gif

Also extended CIPS shows the increased probabilities.

B6B1E91A-F50E-4828-9A30-3B93B2CD67D4.png
E4394C3D-127D-42A9-B827-FA21D43A4175.png
 

KevinH

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This one looks a little more ominous/potentially higher-ceiling at first sniff than this current week's potential threat, but I'm holding off diving too deep into it until this more immediate threat is past, particularly because the models seem especially volatile (read: inconsistent) at longer ranges of late.
 

JPWX

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This one looks a little more ominous/potentially higher-ceiling at first sniff than this current week's potential threat, but I'm holding off diving too deep into it until this more immediate threat is past, particularly because the models seem especially volatile (read: inconsistent) at longer ranges of late.
SPC hinted at next week's threat in their Day 4-8 discussion this morning

202302060958_SWOD48.png
 
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Taylor Campbell

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The GFS, EURO, and GEM continue the idea of a potentially significant severe threat during the day next Thursday in the South. The type of agreement from them for a Day 10 forecast is unusual.
 
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UncleJuJu98

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These are the events that you hope rich moisture isn't present lol. But we are creeping into climatology range where there is more moisture.
 

Gail

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D8E640C8-3962-4D61-972F-F5715F36855F.jpeg

Expected since this will be happening. Planned repairs (and cancelling them) during a severe threat hasn’t failed in the South this season yet, has it?
 

Tennie

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View attachment 17620

Expected since this will be happening. Planned repairs (and cancelling them) during a severe threat hasn’t failed in the South this season yet, has it?

It's like Mother Nature took a look at the NWS's WSR-88D maintenance schedule this year and said, "Hold my beer!"
 
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