Severe WX February 8th - 12th deep south severe threat.

12z nam bumped the threat more

Fv3 12z run is a decent representation of what could happen if things line up, although timing has slowed down with would help diminish the threat of severe.

A lot of cloud clearing being forecast for Wednesday afternoon I should note.

The end of the 18z hrrr run is a wee bit concerning I'll do a deep dive later.

I'll just say this the mositure is in a phenomenal position at the end of the hrrr run at 9 o'clock in the morning. Not sure if shear is there though

Another thing to note, boundaries and minor mesoscale details could really enhance a zone of potential higher tornado props around the missippi delta I still gotta look closer at it

21z rap is a regional outbreak (severe with some tor) lol. I love the rap, because it's parameters aren't influenced by convection.

Nws of Jackson mentions 1km 300-400 SRH helicity I'm not seeing that, if that's the case you really don't want isolated storms.

I'd guess the NWS has a wider array of more premium models. But that really concerns me if that's what's popping up for them and they're thinking that. That's pretty high. Maybe they're going of the 3km nam..? But the mositure return is awful on that one. Can't wait till the WRF runs get into range tonight

My opinion just off the top of my head that the ceiling for this event will be a small enhanced, very curious as to whether the Jackson office mistyped on there parameter values. The threat is conditional obviously... But nonetheless shouldn't be ignored.

Nick Lilja motioned he thinking of a possible EHN in his blog this morning.

January 10th 2008 is a decent analog for this event. Not as bad though I don't think.

UncleJuJu98 said:

January 10th 2008 is a decent analog for this event.

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Pull it up when I get a chance and @JPWX can correct me, but this should be the one hit here in Choctaw County, Ms, and the tornado Caledonia that hit the school. Granted not two events are the same, but just giving context.

JBishopwx said:

Pull it up when I get a chance and @JPWX can correct me, but this should be the one hit here in Choctaw County, Ms, and the tornado Caledonia that hit the school. Granted not two events are the same, but just giving context.

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It showed it being a nasty event. Although I' don't think this one will be as bad. 500mb is a bit different when trying to compare

This is where I pulled the analog from, it's the 2nd top event, around 5 out of the top 15 analogs are high risk events with another around 5 being significant but lesser threat days and and the rest being meager.

00z hrrr rolling out, waiting on the 00z WRF to come out as well!

Warm sector across south missippi and Louisiana is already pretty ripe with 1000j of sbcape at 9am.. long range nam is taking the occluded deeping low look like the 3km nam was. Backs up the NWS Jackson discussion on higher SRH helicity values of this happens.

Low level instability is quite frankly absurdly high for a winter event. Theta e's at the surface are remarkable. Instability will be a NON issue, evolution of shear and meshing seems to be the issue at this point.

Widespread 1500+ instability values for most of the NWS Jackson jurisdiction.

Hrrr has a few rather stronger/intense updrafts near the triple point or directly southeast of it. Best shear and instability there. But the open warm sector is intriguing like to see the WRF runs they have the best grasp in the 24-48 hour range.

It's quite remarkable that we are looking at near 68-70 dewpoints as far north as starkville Mississippi to Tuscaloosa Alabama.

JBishopwx said:

Pull it up when I get a chance and @JPWX can correct me, but this should be the one hit here in Choctaw County, Ms, and the tornado Caledonia that hit the school. Granted not two events are the same, but just giving context.

Click to expand...

Yes it was. From SPC as well: The January 10th 2008 outbreak produced 36 tornadoes, 96 damaging wind reports, and 50 hail reports. It was a Moderate Risk with a 15% SIG Hatch tornado risk with a 30% damaging wind risk. It prompted the issuance of a PDS Tornado Watch for western/northern Alabama, parts of eastern MS, Southeast Louisiana, and middle Tennessee. It was the first of 2 Moderate Risks issued in January 2008 with the other one occurring on January 29th.

Biggest bust component seems to be lack of real good shear. Sure there's marginal to adequate shear for some weaker updrafts storms and spin ups.

I'm just confused as to what the NWS of Jackson was seeing with 200-400 SRH helicity.. I mean if that where to be trust then this event would rocket up in intensity.