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Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

andyhb

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That 18z GFS run, as fast as it is, is still a pretty significant severe wx event across the southern halves of MS, AL and GA Sunday.
 
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Taylor Campbell

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The GFS early on is looking slower.
 

Equus

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Definitely slower, still not near the European models but very much slower...
 

Kory

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As I said before, there is some STUPID crazy shear under that 60-70kt LLJ axis...overlain a warm sector with upper 60s to 70 dews.
 
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Taylor Campbell

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The GFS is again slower, more north with the warm front, and stronger with the shear! My stomach turns when I see it. I can only imagine what high resolution models will show as we get nearer.
 

Richardjacks

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As I said before, there is some STUPID crazy shear under that 60-70kt LLJ axis...overlain a warm sector with upper 60s to 70 dews.
yes, this is serious looking for sure, that kind of shear in mid April when the instability can move so much faster, plus remember GOM waters are warmer than average.
 

andyhb

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Some of the crazier soundings I've ever seen the GFS print out just came with that 00z run. Shear profiles (should they verify close to what is being suggested) here make just about any storm that hits 40 dBZ start rotating. If we get any semblance of surface heating, there is going to be a big problem. Even without a lot of sunshine, such incredible low level wind fields are sure to get the moisture there. An EML would just be...well I don't really want to think about it.

The presence of the right exit region of the STJ over the Gulf is what separates this from a number of other Gulf Coast events that have struggled. That should help suppress development over the Gulf prior to the frontal passage.

Alarm bells are going off here, with it being Easter, I hope people are ready for this with all of the COVID complications dominating the news.
 

Richardjacks

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Great example of the gfs trend....

The GFS, which has been a progressive outlier among global models, continues to trend slower/more amplified for Sunday’s severe weather potential in Dixie. This allows for better moisture return into a broad warm sector. 5-run trend valid 09z Sun helps us visualize. #alwx #mswx https://t.co/kzRLzJjA8Y
 

jmills

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That run of the GFS was what was needed to really start sounding the alarms. As Andy mentioned, the subsidence in the forward exit region of the jet is going to keep the Gulf coast clear and with that clean source region and a screaming LLJ you're going to end up with a large warm sector. Throw in some incredible dynamics and somebody will end up having a very bad day.
 

Isaac Williams

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SPC has the 30% circle on D4 for the southern halves of MS/AL - and mentions strong, long-tracked tors. I only expect wording to get bolder as we get closer, assuming no major changes occur. This could be a widespread event for many states.
 
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