• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX December 16-17 2019 Severe Weather Outbreak

JayF

Technical Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
Sustaining Member
Technical Admin
Messages
1,624
Reaction score
878
Location
Hartselle, al
HAM Callsign
KB4JCS
Looking at the model data I am thinking that NE Mississippi, Central to North Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee are the highest chances for severe weather come Monday. IF the models are correct and I realize we are 5 days out, the Chattanooga area is going to be hardest hit. Let's discuss the upcoming weather pattern.
 

MichelleH

Moderator
Moderator
Messages
860
Reaction score
1,174
Location
Cullman, AL
I hope not. People are so busy with holiday stuff right now and we haven't had an event in a while, so some may have let their guard down.
 
  • Thread starter
  • Admin
  • #5

JayF

Technical Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
Sustaining Member
Technical Admin
Messages
1,624
Reaction score
878
Location
Hartselle, al
HAM Callsign
KB4JCS
Wasn’t December 16th also the same date as the south Tuscaloosa tornado back in 2000?


You would be correct. Unfortunately with it now being 4 days out, the NWS has increased the 15% area.

Alabama is second only to Texas with 39 Christmas week (December 23-27) tornadoes since 1950. The strongest Alabama tornado on record in December was the Tuscaloosa F4 on 12/16/2000. This tornado was responsible for 11 fatalities and 144 injuries. This tornado was caught live on a tower camera during James Spann’s coverage.

This is the link where that information came from.

 

warneagle

Member
Messages
3,729
Reaction score
3,208
Location
Arlington, VA
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
To me, it looks like the timing isn't right as far as the dynamics and instability.
Yeah the window where the best shear and best instability overlap is pretty small (not to mention some potential VBV that’s evident on some of the forecast soundings and storm mode issues).
 

Equus

Member
Messages
3,290
Reaction score
3,368
Location
Jasper, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
We're in NAM range now 84h out, and getting a sliver of overlap as the best shear moves out that it still looks like we could briefly have some issues. Biggest threat here so far this fall season though I think.
 

WesL

"Bill, I'm talkin' imminent rueage"
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
Sustaining Member
Messages
3,344
Reaction score
2,614
Location
Fayetteville, AR
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Admin Note: I edited the title so it would be easier to search down the road.
 

Equus

Member
Messages
3,290
Reaction score
3,368
Location
Jasper, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
18Z NAM still pretty spicy for central AL, though VBV still present
nam_2019121318_075_33.31-87.42.png
 

Equus

Member
Messages
3,290
Reaction score
3,368
Location
Jasper, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
I guess we get to see in the short term how much instability we DO manage to get, always a big question in these events
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,928
Reaction score
2,119
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
I’m not sure we’ll have enough forcing to get any convection across the open warm sector. We’ll be relying on the cold front to spark convection and I’m not sure that will lead to a more significant threat.
 

Equus

Member
Messages
3,290
Reaction score
3,368
Location
Jasper, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Probably contaminated, but NAM still pretty hyped up; always fun to play the classic find-the-PDS-TOR-sounding. SW of Tuscaloosa

nam_2019121412_066_32.89-87.71.png
 

Richardjacks

Member
Meteorologist
Messages
1,155
Reaction score
1,308
Location
Atop Red Mountain Birmingham, Al
Probably contaminated, but NAM still pretty hyped up; always fun to play the classic find-the-PDS-TOR-sounding. SW of Tuscaloosa

nam_2019121412_066_32.89-87.71.png
The NAM is also a bit slower than the GFS...by at least a couple of hours, which give more time for instability to move northward, causing a larger and expanding warm sector...but also storm mode may be a bit messy.
 

Equus

Member
Messages
3,290
Reaction score
3,368
Location
Jasper, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Yeah it's increasingly a good bit off from the GFS timing-wise. GFS still not super convinced everything lines up right; very interested in seeing the CAMs/other regionals have to say as we get closer.
 

Lori

Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
Messages
1,035
Reaction score
653
Location
Vandiver, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Wasn’t December 16th also the same date as the south Tuscaloosa tornado back in 2000?

I was waiting to see if anyone saw the date!!



124615A9-6595-44B4-BA7B-2D3F70D13F63.jpeg
 

Austin Dawg

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
852
Reaction score
1,299
Location
Leander, Texas
I remember that one. Lived in Starkville, MS at the time. Depending on the winter, we could have tornadoes, snow, or ice storms in December.

The end of November usually signaled the beginning of severe weather season. We could go from below zero to tornadoes anytime during December, January, and February.
 

MichelleH

Moderator
Moderator
Messages
860
Reaction score
1,174
Location
Cullman, AL
I remember watching that one live on ABC 33/40's tower cam. I *think* it was the first live tornado they caught on camera.
 

Equus

Member
Messages
3,290
Reaction score
3,368
Location
Jasper, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
I was just ten but I remember that day clearly... and the dusting of snow immediately thereafter.
 
Back
Top