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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 19-23

Just had at least 3 tor warns across western AR along I-40: Ozark, Coal Hill, and northwest of Russellville. I think the news said the Ozark one was spotted and debris signature on radar. (Waiting to confirm, now that tor warns are canceled our local news are giving 1 minute of weather and 10 minutes of commercials....)

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(Not like it truly matters in the grand scheme of things) but by all accounts, the SPC definitely should’ve went with an enhanced risk.
The SPC initiates risk levels largely based off of model generated parameters of the environment, spatial extent, and confidence.
The cams had a sizable area of STP ranging 2 to 4, and the SPC themselves were very adamant about the potential yesterday had. This was an easy 10% hatched issuance case, but for reasons unknown, they simply didn’t do it.

But what’s astonishing is the fact they would’ve been 2 levels too low still; in fairness, you absolutely can’t fault them for that one by any reasonable means as literally no one could’ve foreseen the severity of the outbreak would’ve justified a high risk.
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I really think this does play into the overall trend of weather models (especially CAMs) not being as good as they once were. This outbreak outperformed last week by a pretty big margin, and there was almost zero notice beforehand.

I can also see how the SPC was more hesitant with how things have been going. Not sure why they didn't upgrade later in the day though
 
Tennie said:
Here's some interesting and relevant information:



And now I have to wonder how much this latest outbreak will skew the numbers even further in Illinois's favor...
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Also, besides the obvious (ALABAMA), a relatively rare light tornado year for Arkansas, which has been a very active state in the past 2 decades.

Knocking on wood about fall and winter though!
 
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I didn’t really look at the models beforehand for yesterday, but knew some of yall were sounding the alarm. Putting aside the fact that this event appears to have been underforecast going in, I’m even more confused by how they handled the event in general as it was unfolding.

I took a look at the mesoanalysis page about an hour before the first official tornado watch came in yesterday, and it was readily apparent in that, and in other observational data, that a higher-end event was becoming more likely. You not only had ample low-level shear and 0-1 KM helicity values that were suggestive of tornadic supercells, but you also had 3CAPE well in-excess of 100 j/kg across the entire warm sector which I know Trey has highlighted as a major indicator of tornadoes on his channel before. That was the case not only from the off, but that remained the case throughout the evening portion of the event.
 
I'm not faulting the SPC for this one the only questionable bit for me is that they KNEW this event had high end potential with the MCV and yet NEVER took the risk of upgrading. Confusing. The SPC had a tornado risk out but nobody is saying that they doesn't see it, it's just the fact that they've been extremely odd this year, yesterday was a situation they knew was possible yet ended up choosing the risk that the severity would be unforecasted. I just don't get their thinking.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
I'm not faulting the SPC for this one the only questionable bit for me is that they KNEW this event had high end potential with the MCV and yet NEVER took the risk of upgrading. Confusing. The SPC had a tornado risk out but nobody is saying that they doesn't see it, it's just the fact that they've been extremely odd this year, yesterday was a situation they knew was possible yet ended up choosing the risk that the severity would be unforecasted. I just don't get their thinking.
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Agreed that they've been very odd and inconsistent this year. I wonder if there have been any shake ups with leadership or something.

edit: tried digging into it and it doesn't appear there have been any leadership changes or policy changes that have been made public.
 
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