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Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

OHWX97 said:
No kidding. The vibes in this thread are insufferable. I get this was a big under performance, but some of you have the worst attitude right now and need to step away from your screens.
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My mentality is that if a tornado event underperforms, just go do something else and stop screaming "bust" on the internet.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Yes, and i think a lot of us have generally owned up to all of that talk. At this point it's more a severe underperformance versus a total bust. This thread has been truly abysmal yet funny
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I think a lot of it has to do with us being so weathertigued (put two and two together) we’ve so many setups not live up to what we thought and I think it’s catching to up to some of us. And this thread really shows.
 
Brice W said:
I think a lot of it has to do with us being so weathertigued (put two and two together) we’ve so many setups not live up to what we thought and I think it’s catching to up to some of us. And this thread really shows.
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It does. And others can tell others to STFU and stop being so heated but for me, I'm finding the absurdity of this funny. Between arguments and all of the above, this is kinda like the Matador thread.
 
TheSuckZone said:
That's one forecast that always verifies
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The funny thing is that there were experienced chasers telling people to stay out of today due to the motions and etc. And fair enough, sometimes random nobodies of a chaser got involved in that tornado. It's absolute circus what the storm chasing community is for. It's a circus and not for science at all anymore.
 
The mods looking through this thread end of the day:
Brace Yourself Here We Go GIF by MOODMAN
 
After all that, I literally slept through the tornado in Dane County and even whatever part of the storm hit here in Madison (worked nonstop w/o a break 4A-2:30P and had done the same yesterday).

Me getting caught up on this thread:

grandpa-abe-exit.gif
 
It’s insane really, how just a day and a half ago we were looking at a Palm Sunday redux, but all it took to completely change that solution is a very slight flattening of the jet exit region (the high end scenarios displayed the jet streak curving northeast which put the exit region further north).
This flattening caused the surface low to propagate further south and therefore caused the area of maximum forcing further south.
1781744049663.png1781744087405.png
Had the jet streak kept its orientation that models over a day ago have shown, (left image) the MCS would’ve stayed far more north and allowed for an unaltered warm sector to set in place as far north as Chicago. And yes, a Palm Sunday redux had a legitimate 50/50 shot at verifying, as at one point every cam model displayed long track, extremely intense helicity streaks with some of them spanning three states across.
This really could’ve been an historic and certainly a catastrophic event. Goes to show that even the slightest changes synoptically can completely change your scenario. Close call honestly with this one, it would’ve been really bad.
 
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