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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat May 22-24, 2026

Just wantd to see what GROK would do with the above sounding. Yes, I get the negatives but......Gotta admit it's interesting.

Moderate to high tornado threat potential, particularly for supercells capable of producing strong (EF2+) tornadoes if storms remain discrete or semi-discrete. This 18Z NAM forecast sounding for Huntsville, AL (KHSV) shows a very favorable environment for tornadogenesis, especially in the early-to-mid afternoon timeframe on May 22, 2026.Key Tornado-Favorable Ingredients Present:
  1. Strong Instability
    • Surface-based CAPE ~1417 J/kg (MU CAPE similar).
    • Decent low-level instability with 0-3 km CAPE 176 J/kg and 0-6 km CAPE 545 J/kg.
    • Very little convective inhibition (CIN = 0 J/kg).
      This supports rapid thunderstorm development and strong updrafts.
  2. Excellent Low-Level Moisture & Low LCL
    • LCL height ~456 m (very low) for both surface-based and most-unstable parcels.
    • High boundary-layer relative humidity (84–94% in the lowest 1–3 km).
      Low LCLs (<800–1000 m) strongly favor tornado production by keeping the rear-flank downdraft warmer and more buoyant, allowing rotation to extend closer to the ground.
  3. Strong Low-Level Shear & Helicity
    • 0–3 km SRH ~206 m²/s² (solid; values >150–200 support mesocyclones and tornadoes).
    • Effective Inflow Layer (EIL) SRH 165 m²/s².
    • 0–1 km bulk wind difference (BWD) 24 kt, increasing with height.
      The hodograph shows a pronounced clockwise curvature in the low levels with a strong right-moving supercell component (RM motion ENE @ 28 kts). This is classic for cyclonic (right-moving) supercells.
  4. Deep-Layer Shear
    • Effective inflow layer wind ~24 kt, with stronger mid/upper flow (storm-relative winds supportive).
    • Overall 0–6 km shear appears sufficient (~40+ kt implied by the hodograph and parameters) for organized supercells.
Additional Supportive Factors:
  • Steep low-level lapse rates and a moist profile.
  • High precipitable water (~1.86 in) but with good instability, supporting heavy rain + potential for tornadic supercells.
  • The hodograph shape (long, curved) is textbook for supercell tornado potential.
Limitations / Caveats:
  • Storm mode will be critical. If storms quickly merge into a linear QLCS (squall line), the tornado threat drops (more straight-line wind/damage potential instead). Discrete or clustered supercells would maximize the tornado risk.
  • CIN is currently zero, so widespread initiation is possible — watch for any capping or boundaries that focus storms.
  • This is a point forecast from the NAM at 18Z. Actual conditions could vary with mesoscale features (outflow boundaries, dryline, etc.).
Bottom line: This is a strong signal for a tornado threat in the Huntsville/north Alabama area, with ingredients in place for significant (EF2–EF3) tornadoes if supercells can mature and remain discrete. Meteorologists would likely highlight this area in tornado watches with high probabilities. Always follow official NWS guidance and have multiple ways to receive warnings.


I guess we'll just have to see.
 
Guess we will. I've seen things happen without a risk highlighted at all.

1779454705963.png

...Central Gulf Coast States/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
A negatively-tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move
northeastward today across the east-central U.S. Ahead of the
trough, low-level moisture advection will take place. By early
afternoon, surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F
from the central Gulf Coast states northward into the southern Ohio
Valley. Moderate instability is expected by afternoon across much of
the region with MLCAPE peaking between 1500 and 2500 J/kg. Locally
stronger instability is expected across central Mississippi,
east-central Kentucky, eastern Tennessee and northeast Georgia. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms
will develop and move northeastward across the moist airmass.
Steepening low-level lapse rates will support a potential for
isolated severe wind gusts. In addition, hodographs across this
unstable airmass are forecast to be somewhat curved, which should
also support a marginal tornado threat.
 
Day 1 update expanded the 2% risk.

1779458418870.png

...Central Gulf Coast States/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
Water-vapor imagery shows a disturbance moving northeastward across
the ArkLaMiss this morning and moving towards western portions of
TN/KY and the lower OH Valley. Surface analysis indicates a moist
airmass featuring dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s over TN to
the lower 70s over the central Gulf Coast. Despite widespread cloud
cover, some thinning of the cloud shield is expected as temperatures
slowly warm through the early afternoon. Models generally show weak
buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and skinny CAPE profiles and
tempered lapse rates (reference the Nashville and Birmingham 12 UTC
raobs). However, models show some enhancement/strengthening of
925-500 mb flow moving northeastward across MS/AL into TN through
the mid-late afternoon. As a result, some enlargement of hodographs
will likely occur during the diurnal heating cycle and a few weak
supercell structures will probably develop. Yet, the ongoing
thunderstorm band over eastern MS may be ill timed as it moves
northeastward across western/northern AL through midday.
Nonetheless, an isolated risk for a tornado seems possible over much
of this general region. A risk for isolated damaging gusts may also
accompany some of the stronger thunderstorms before this activity
wanes by the early evening.
 
Fairly-impressive TOR-warned supercell along the southern MS/AL border this morning.
1779459256595.png
 
40% chance of a watch being issued.

mcd0824.png

Mesoscale Discussion 0824
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Areas affected...Parts of MS/AL into southern TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 221400Z - 221600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in the brief-tornado and localized
damaging-wind threat is possible with time into early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A midlevel vorticity maximum and attendant weak surface
low are moving across eastern AR this morning. An arc of convection
associated with this system extends across western TN into
northern/eastern MS and western AL. The 12Z JAN/BMX soundings depict
rich moisture and poor midlevel lapse rates, with around 25-35 kt of
deep-layer shear and modestly enlarged low-level hodographs noted on
regional VWPs.

Filtered heating and modest destabilization in advance of this
convective band may allow for some intensification through the
morning into the early afternoon, though weak midlevel lapse rates
may continue to hamper updraft strength. A belt of moderate
low-level flow associated with the ejecting shortwave trough will
maintain favorable low-level SRH, and transient supercell structures
will continue to be possible through the morning, with a
brief-tornado threat. A localized wind-damage threat may also
increase with time, especially in areas where stronger heating and
steepening of midlevel lapse rates occur. While uncertainty remains
regarding coverage and magnitude of the threat, watch issuance is
possible given the possibility of some increasing tornado potential
with time.
Click to expand...
 
Clancy said:
Fairly-impressive TOR-warned supercell along the southern MS/AL border this morning.
View attachment 53015
Click to expand...
Welp, that'll do it. 100 ms/s2 of 500m SRH, with relatively compact but nicely-curved hodographs across a large swath of MS and AL.
1779459562322.png1779459599437.png
 
Another TOR now for parts of Clarke County.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1030 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northwestern Clarke County in southwestern Alabama...

* Until 1100 AM CDT.

* At 1030 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located 6 miles north of Coffeeville, or 18 miles
southeast of Butler, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Clarke County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3187 8786 3181 8812 3186 8815 3187 8814
3198 8797
TIME...MOT...LOC 1530Z 239DEG 19KT 3185 8808

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
Click to expand...
1779463978340.png
 
kcyalater said:
am i in crazy town? tor warning in alabama in late may?

the little shower near me in jefferson county is spinning like a top too.
Click to expand...

That's not that unusual. Look up what happened on May 27, 1973.
 
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