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Severe Weather Threat May 16-18, 2026

I do find the Texas part of the Tornado watch odd. The Cig hatched tornado probabilities are further north on the SPC map, but the watch with Cig hatch probabilities goes further south Past Wichita falls TX almost hitting up Abilene TX
 
hurricaneguy said:
Personally I think tornado emergencies are way too overused now. When I hear one I immediately think Joplin, Moore, Mayfield, Tuscaloosa etc.
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I think Enid, Rolling Fork, Barnsdall, Lake City, Elkhorn, etc. are instances of tornado emergencies that were pretty justified. Clearly intense-violent tornadoes that are in/near populated areas with either visual confirmation or significant confidence via radar.
 
jiharris0220 said:
The moisture is fine (where the moderate risk is located) the fail mode today is the fact that storms had to somehow remain adequately spaced in a cold front forced environment long enough for the nocturnal LLJ to kick in, which was obviously going to be a long shot at best and surprise surprise, it’s almost all upscale before 5pm, and the LLJ won’t kick in until the classic 7pm timeframe.

A moderate risk would’ve been justified had the 500mb jet streak were further south as to allow for a stronger surface low to develop so the cold front would’ve been more north/south aligned and for a strong LLJ to be present throughout the day without having to wait for one to develop.

What’s stranger is that the SPC is obviously aware of these things, and literally pointed these things out in everyone of their outlooks, and yet they went with a CIG2 moderate risk anyways, and went as far as to issue an 80/80PDS watch???
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I’d be very surprised if there wasn’t mid level moisture issues in the central and southern portions of the risk area.
 
Muwx said:
I’d be very surprised if there wasn’t mid level moisture issues in the central and southern portions of the risk area.
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Mid level moisture is almost always limited in the plains, hell, everywhere for that matter, storms largely ignore it when there’s any sort of deep layer shear.
Obviously if the mid levels are dry enough yes that will make updrafts anemic, not the case here though.

On another topic however, for everyone here, STP and VTP are up to 10 and 20 each, obviously majority driven by extreme cape values, but environmental helicity is up to 400 and the LLJ is now 40knots.
The Blue Rapids supercell is responding to these kinematics accordingly.
 
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