Severe Weather Threat May 16-18, 2026

Looks like the Torcon is higher for today. He has it set for a 7

2026 certainly seems like the year of conditional setups (so far, at least) and today seems no different. That being said it does seem a higher-end corridor of tornado potential may be setting up from NE Kansas into SW Iowa, including SE Nebraska and NW Missouri too.

Surface observations reveal an effective warm front (SPC has marked it as a stationary front but essentially similar) from N KS up into IA, and then a cold front extending to the SW across KS. Troughing is elongated along the northern frontal zone, but it seems a surface low has developed across N/C KS, as models said. There also appears to be an outflow boundary extending to the SE. I have crudely annotated some of these features but refer to the latest SPC MD for a professional's analysis of the situation.

The periphery of the 500mb trough impinges directly on these boundaries, and the speed max develops and ejects almost directly North-East with 70kt flow into NE by 00z. All the frontal boundaries will thus be well-forced on both the synoptic and frontal scales and so expect storms to develop quite widely from Kansas leading to an outbreak of at least hail and wind reports.



However, despite the boundary-parallel flow, I still think there is a window for semi-discrete storms to the north-east of the low's centre. It seems likely a cluster of storms will develop at the surface low, and possibly even extending to the SE along the OFB. Simultaneously, a strong 700mb is already in place, and will aid in forcing the warm sector further North even as storms develop. Notice on this HRRR forecast GIF how the higher dew points shift into Iowa even as storms get underway. This seems to be 'opening up' a channel for surface based storms to move through.



Meanwhile, the environment just along and south of this stationary/warm front is very favourable. This is a box-averaged sounding from the latest HRRR - note the fast storm motions - over 30kts and likely 40+ kts relative to the surface winds. Everyone can see the large amount of SRH swept out by the hodograph will favour strong low level mesocyclones, which also appear well vented. To me this suggests that clusters of discrete/semi discrete storms will likely race to the NE out of their initiation point. While there are valid concerns with precipitation loading and outflow dominance, the strong storm relative inflow especially closer to the front may aid in getting 'balanced' storms. Though certainly a failure mode is that storms become more outflow-dominant early on (Right Sounding) and struggle to become properly tornadic despite an improving environment. There also does seem to be the chance of a couple prefrontal cells also developing into NW MO/SW IA too.



I think a fairly plausible scenario is we see 1-2 more dominant supercells that could produce a couple EF3+ tornadoes, and possibly the risk of a violent tornado too. It's very hard to say that with any real certainty as in situations like this with fewer storms to bring that risk, it relies much more on a 'perfect storm' of cell interactions to cause something nasty. Over time the storm mode will transition to more linear QLCS, but I feel as if continued embedded supercell/QLCS structures will provide further significant tornado risk to the north-east, given the environment will still remain favourable.

I would really watch the regions in satellite just along and to the south of the cloud/clear boundary on satellite that are still ahead of the surface low. Note this map is not intended to be an actual forecast, just visually highlighting the area I was talking about. Tornado risk obviously exists along the cold front too but will have much more of a tendency to get undercut/grow upscale and the environment seems a but less favourable. Certainly a day to tune into all the professionals at SPC and NWS Offices. Stay safe everyone!!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 222
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northeast Kansas
Southeast Nebraska

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until
800 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Rapid supercell development is expected over north-central
Kansas. These storms will track northeastward through the afternoon
across the watch area, into far southeast Nebraska. Instability and
shear parameters suggest the potential for intense tornadoes, along
with very large hail and damaging winds.

Click to expand...

80/80 probs on the new PDS tornado watch

Probabilities of the newly issued PDS Tornado Watch

Potentially two dumb questions but has tornado alley shifted back to the original tornado alley the past couple of years?

And if so, what’s been the cause for it?

for those smarter then I this the metar ahead of this cell is it good?

Geez louise, 80/80 PDS watch. Could be a very bad night for folks in Central/NE Kansas.

RollTide18 said:

Potentially two dumb questions but has tornado alley shifted back to the original tornado alley the past couple of years?

And if so, what’s been the cause for it?

Click to expand...

There isn't really a "shift" in allies (which I don't think exist in the first place but that's too hot a take for here lol); it's just a coincidence in the amount of setups in a particular area. 2023 seemed abundant in both Midwest and Plains events. 2024 was heavy in Plains setups while 2025 was heavy in MO/AR setups. This year seems heavy in Wisconsin and Mississippi Delta-area events.

So......Todays gonna be a long one isn't it :/.

Cyclonic Paracosm said:

View attachment 52923
So......Todays gonna be a long one isn't it :/.

Click to expand...

Probably, yeah.

Just about the dead last thing you'd want to see on a day like today.

As a saying goes, you can tell a lot from the first storm of the day. Let’s see if these things drop anything or if lack of venting/going HP undercuts the tornado threat.

Tornado warning on the storm near Lincoln, Kansas.

I don’t really understand why this is a PDS watch.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL DISCRETE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY
OF CONCORDIA, KS. THE STRONGEST STORM SO FAR IS IN LINCOLN COUNTY,
KS AND HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF INCREASING INFLOW AND MESOCYCLONE
STRENGTH. THIS STORM WILL POSE THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT AS IT
WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE MORE RESIDENCE TIME IN THE MOST FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THESE STORMS WITHIN THE MODIFIED
OUTFLOW WITH BACKED SURFACE WINDS AND AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN THE
850 MB WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS NEAR GREAT BEND/RUSSELL HAVE TRENDED MORE WESTERLY, BUT
FARTHER NORTH, WHERE THESE STORMS ARE ONGOING, THE WINDS REMAIN MORE
NORTHEASTERLY/NORTHERLY. THIS AT LEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LINEAR
FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THE SHORT TERM AND KEEP DISCRETE MODES
DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

..WENDT.. 05/18/2026