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Severe Weather Threat May 16-18, 2026

Kds86z said:
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Unfortunately I'm not able to be out on the Plains for this one due to work obligations. The setup didn't reveal itself in the models until after I'd already agreed to cover a weekend coworker's PTO yesterday and Saturday.
 
DanLarsen34 said:
Today certainly holds the potential for the first use of the CIG 3 designation. If confidence is increasing in a longer duration discrete to semi-discrete mode, I think the use of CIG 3 would be warranted across the current 15% area.
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Wonder how CoD is going to render that on their graphics since their CIG 2 is the full crosshatching which SPC's graphics use for CIG 3 (threw me for a loop the first time I saw it since I expected them to match).
 
Kds86z said:
Ah to bad. You could’ve done OK Tor intercept part 2, lol
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The way today is shaping up more likely Kansas, which was likewise my initial target on 5/18/25...and which did verify, only about 4 hours later than I was banking on.

GX010544.MP4.22_55_00_26.Still005.jpg
 
DanLarsen34 said:
Today certainly holds the potential for the first use of the CIG 3 designation. If confidence is increasing in a longer duration discrete to semi-discrete mode, I think the use of CIG 3 would be warranted across the current 15% area.
Click to expand...
Very doubtful in my opinion because of the storm mode uncertainty. Models are mixed with discrete storms vs clusters and rapid upscale growth. A lot of the models I've looked at show discrete storms for only the first couple of hours, then upscale growth. With that said, the region seems to be recovering pretty good, but some of the models also hint at some pretty wide temperature/dewpoint spreads (unless I am just super bad at picking random spots to check :)) which may also be a concern, plus cloud bases may be a little high too depending on what part of the risk area you look at.

Today is probably another one of those days where at this point trying to refine the risk areas any more is a fools errand and we will just need to see how the day progresses. Conditionally an upper end event day, but messy storm mode may really limit things. Seems pretty on par for most of the severe weather events this year. Long are the days of "textbook" setups.
 
Had held onto some slight hope for a backyard chase this afternoon when we were in the 5% contour, but SPC has chopped away all of the tornado probabilities for Wisconsin. A reminder that even in this day and age, 4-5 days is an eternity in severe weather prediction...

Yesterday I had to rush back to work an hour after my shift ended at 10 AM (and I was trying to take a nap) because of a cell that popped up and tracked right through the heart of the Madison metro, taking on supercell characteristics for a short time and looking just menacing enough on reflectivity and velocity to get MKX to pull the trigger. The other weekend director on the mornings is relatively inexperienced and wasn't familiar with our severe weather cut-in procedure.

The sirens were screaming countywide, which they notably weren't doing (at least that I noticed, and I was listening for them) when I arrived back at my apartment during an active tornado warning on April 14.
 
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