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Severe Weather Threat May 16-18, 2026

lake.effect said:
Legit question deserves a legit answer

I only post weird stuff when I’m a little drunk. It’s a weird OCD tick, idk. I might have Tourette’s or something. Being transgressive helps me blow off steam/frustration

I’m not gay though. I am a troll sometimes. I am smart, pretty sure in the 130-140 IQ range but IQ is not that important. A necessary but not sufficient condition for success, and one whose returns diminish rapidly and approach negative around 130-135.

There ya go
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Tourette's Syndrome doesn't make you post bull*hit on a wx forum. I should know because my son had it as a child. If it's because you're drunk, that's a you problem. This is your one and only warning - keep it clean and on topic or you CAN go make your own forum because you will no longer be allowed here. Apologies to the other members - I wasn't on here yesterday because a dear friend of mine passed.
 
MichelleH said:
Tourette's Syndrome doesn't make you post bull*hit on a wx forum. I should know because my son had it as a child. If it's because you're drunk, that's a you problem. This is your one and only warning - keep it clean and on topic or you CAN go make your own forum because you will no longer be allowed here. Apologies to the other members - I wasn't on here yesterday because a dear friend of mine passed.
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Don’t apologize Michelle. We appreciate you. You can’t be here 24/7!
 
Not much rain in sight- all the rain are on the south side of the state. The sky is cloudy and we shall see if it holds like the models. My gut says 10% tornado risk might be a little high in this area especially with storm mode but we'll see. With lines of storms you get a lot more tornado warnings but whatever tornadoes happen are weak and short lived enough that it makes people not really listen to the tornado warnings after a while (which is why people back in central IL took tornado warnings a lot less seriously than over here where supercells are a bit more common).
 
SouthFLwx said:
no doubt was an EF-5 strength tornado, will probably get rated EF3-4 though.
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The thing is that this was an instantaneous wind gust - due to the impracticability of measuring using this metric the EF scale operates on a 3-second measurement, like hurricanes. Instant winds can be much, much higher than actually-sustained winds over time. It could have been an EF5; I don't see anything that solidly proves it in my view though as I'm a huge believer in the fact that instant-reading radars should not be factored into an EF rating whatsoever. All of the homes it hit were built to borderline-illegal construction standards, so structurally it's a high EF2 to low EF3.
 
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Central Ohio Wx said:
The thing is that this was an instantaneous wind gust - due to the impracticability of measuring using this metric the EF scale operates on a 3-second measurement, like hurricanes. Instant winds can be much, much higher than actually-sustained winds over time. It could have been an EF5; I don't see anything that solidly proves it in my view though as I'm a huge believer in the fact that instant-reading radars should not be factored into an EF rating whatsoever. All of the homes it hit were built to borderline-illegal construction standards, so structurally it's a high EF2 to low EF3.
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Really? Where did you see that at?
 
Ozonelayer said:
Really? Where did you see that at?
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Aerials of the homes it hit along 7th and Denton Roads north of St. Libory show that the construction standards were absolutely shoddy, to the point where I'm not even convinced whoever built them is doing it legally. The foundation of one of the homes literally looks like it is made out of termite-ridden plywood (wind somehow got into the foundation and blew parts of it outward), and the other two it hit kinda just fell over (with more plywood wall construction). Video confirms that the two homes were on the outer edge of the windfield; they should not have sustained that degree of damage with that in mind under normal circumstances.

At least one of the homes was anchored but it doesn't appear to be effective at all.
 
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Where are you getting information that the homes were “illegally” constructed?
Central Ohio Wx said:
The thing is that this was an instantaneous wind gust - due to the impracticability of measuring using this metric the EF scale operates on a 3-second measurement, like hurricanes. Instant winds can be much, much higher than actually-sustained winds over time. It could have been an EF5; I don't see anything that solidly proves it in my view though as I'm a huge believer in the fact that instant-reading radars should not be factored into an EF rating whatsoever. All of the homes it hit were built to borderline-illegal construction standards, so structurally it's a high EF2 to low EF3.
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SouthFLwx said:
Where are you getting information that the homes were “illegally” constructed?
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"Borderline-illegal", not definitively "illegal" - there's zero way homes were built up to code, and see above as to why the construction is so bad. It's some of the worst I've ever seen looking at damage photos.
 
Central Ohio Wx said:
(with more plywood wall construction)
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I'm pretty sure using plywood walls without the minimum amount of structural framing is illegal in Nebraska (using plywood should be illegal regardless), but that's just my own observation and could be wrong. On the upside there does appear to be oriented strand board, so at least they aren't that incompetent.
 
Schoeppeya said:
Little OT but I am absolutely convinced EF-5 type wind speeds are way more common in tornado's than assumed
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There’s a number of credible people in this field who believe this as well. In fact, I believe there have been studies written about this (couldn’t find it in a quick google search, but that’s no surprise)?

It makes sense, especially given that many potential EF-5 tornadoes may never hit anything to warrant or reflect that rating (especially in the Great Plains) and/or may only have a few second window where they’re capable of causing that level of damage.

Just expanding a bit more on this: even most documented F5 and EF-5 rated tornadoes only produce EF-5 rated damage in brief instances (see Moore 2013 as an excellent example). There are rare exceptions, like Hackleburg/Phil Campbell, but most usually have a select few instances where they produce at that level (worth noting that is also a reflection of the way we rate damage with construction quality factored in).
 
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MichelleH said:
Tourette's Syndrome doesn't make you post bull*hit on a wx forum. I should know because my son had it as a child. If it's because you're drunk, that's a you problem. This is your one and only warning - keep it clean and on topic or you CAN go make your own forum because you will no longer be allowed here. Apologies to the other members - I wasn't on here yesterday because a dear friend of mine passed.
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We appreciate you stepping in, Michelle. Sorry to hear about your friend's passing.

Anyhow, this lake.effect guy clearly has no understanding of how Tourettes and OCD actually manifest themselves. I have both, and wouldn't wish them on anyone... ESPECIALLY OCD. It's pure hell.
 
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