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Severe Weather Threat May 16-18, 2026

Maxis_s said:
What a stupid tor-e. I hate to be so critical but that was incredibly stupid. Velocity was impressive at first but quickly tapered off, cc drop was decent but not particularly impressive, and chaser feeds only showed a small, uncondensed tornado.
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I think there needs to be more standardization and more stringent criteria for the issuance of a TOR-E. I guess you can't have visual confirmation as a hard requirement since that would be difficult for nighttime tornadoes, but it really should be reserved for genuinely catastrophic situations, not just "probably a tornado near a town".
 
warneagle said:
I think there needs to be more standardization and more stringent criteria for the issuance of a TOR-E. I guess you can't have visual confirmation as a hard requirement since that would be difficult for nighttime tornadoes, but it really should be reserved for genuinely catastrophic situations, not just "probably a tornado near a town".
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I think Norman's standards are pretty great and a lot of offices have been adapting those standards. It's where that one picture detailing a 70kts vrot requirement comes from.
 
kcyalater said:
a sub elite parameter space producing like this is an ominous sign for tomorrow
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TBF most of this is spinups from the same QLCS. I am worried for tomorrow but here NWS Des Moines said that we may not get as much destabilization for a lot of tornadoes up here tomorrow:

National Weather Service

forecast.weather.gov forecast.weather.gov
It is worth mentioning, however, that both HRRR and RRFS output from
this morning have not been recovering the atmosphere as well on
Monday, leading to more convective inhibition than is being
indicated by the coarser models. This lack of surface based
instability would reduce our risk for tornadoes across the area,
should that scenario play out. Storms would still occur with plenty
of MUCAPE around, but they would be more of the elevated flavor.
This degree of destabilization will certainly be something worth
watching as we get through tonights storms and especially into
tomorrow morning.
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