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Severe Weather Threat May 16-18, 2026

Kds86z said:
FARTHER SOUTH, A CIG2 TORNADO AREA WAS CONSIDERED ACROSS EASTERN NE
AND WEST-CENTRAL IA GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STP 4-7 POSSIBLY
OVERLAPPING WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, NUMEROUS STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH EXPECTED INTERACTIONS CASTING
UNCERTAINTY ON THE LONGEVITY OF THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS.
REGARDLESS, A VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT (RAP
ESRH 300-400 M2/S2) COULD SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A HIGHER-END
TORNADO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NE AND SOUTHWESTERN IA
SHOULD SUPERCELLS REMAIN MORE DISCRETE.

..SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX
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Is it just me or is it a bit odd that they were hesitant to upgrade to CIG 2 when the environment would clearly support intense tornadoes IF a cell establishes itself, but they have kept the 15% risk area in the same vicinity? Out of those two, you would expect the latter product to be what would reflect lower confidence in coverage, not the product that’s meant to demonstrate a reasonable intensity if a tornado occurs.
 
DanLarsen34 said:
Is it just me or is it a bit odd that they were hesitant to upgrade to CIG 2 when the environment would clearly support intense tornadoes IF a cell establishes itself, but they have kept the 15% risk area in the same vicinity? Out of those two, you would expect the latter product to be what would reflect lower confidence in coverage, not the product that’s meant to demonstrate a reasonable intensity if a tornado occurs.
Click to expand...
Must be expecting most or all TORs to be QLCS?
 
TH2002 said:
So WeathermanLeprechaun gets banned for harsh but very fair criticism of how this site is run, but crap like this faces no punishment whatsoever??

What an absolute joke.
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Give it about an hour; they'll ban you and delete your messages! What a lovely team. Keep in mind that lake.effect has been reported several times and (as expected) nothing was done about it.
 
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