Kds86z
Member
No nam anymore??? The f
-
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Severe Weather 2026
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
KakashiHatake2000
Member
Dang it no more snowmagedon from nam
CheeselandSkies
Member
Mr. B. really going gung-ho with the Day 4-8 highlights now, including a 15% contour for Day 6 (Monday 5/18) that contains pretty much all of Wisconsin and Iowa, extending southwestward to northern Texas, or 340,669 square miles according to the outlook!
While I still find his longer-range outlooks a bit too bullish for my tastes, there's likely enough there to warrant a thread soon.
While I still find his longer-range outlooks a bit too bullish for my tastes, there's likely enough there to warrant a thread soon.
Severe Weather Threat May 16-18th
It’s been created. Seeing 70 dew points and cape up to 5000 in some spots is definitely something that indicates severe weather of some sort. Synoptically this is looking very widespread.
It’s been created. Seeing 70 dew points and cape up to 5000 in some spots is definitely something that indicates severe weather of some sort. Synoptically this is looking very widespread.
tennessee storm chaser
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Just for kicks. And giggles lol did anyone see the 6z gfs this morning long range .? 24 th
Jason Mills
Member
The NAM has been slated for retirement for a while now.
akt1985
Member
I wonder how the internet would react to a tornado outbreak or high-end derecho event if one occurred on 6-7 (June 7)?
Kds86z
Member
Wym?
I believe @akt1985 meant if one occurred somewhere outside of the main zone (Tornado Alley) where you would expect both to occur in June like across the Deep South.
CheeselandSkies
Member
I think he's referencing the "6/7" meme/in-joke that was popular among kids recently, although it seems to me like it's mostly run its course.
Yeah. That makes more sense.
tennessee storm chaser
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MEG starting mention some severe wx next Tuesday afternoon into the evening… I haven’t looked hard at it yet ….
Yeah. High of 90 (or near 90) on South wind. That'll do it.
Kds86z
Member
And another thing too. Instability won't be lacking at all next week so MEG can't play that game anymore. LOL!
KakashiHatake2000
Member
new discussion from Meg (Memphis)
Another calm night is on display with light north winds at the
surface as we sit on the back side Wednesday's dry cold front.
Thursday will feature cooler temperatures with afternoon highs
spanning the 70s to lower 80s across the Mid-South. Minimum
relative humidity values will be mostly <30% areawide Thursday.
However, fire weather concerns are not anticipated as winds will
remain largely sub 10 mph. Dry and sunny conditions will also
persist Thursday as surface high pressure slides east and upper-
level northwest flow remains over the region.
Temperatures warm pretty drastically come Friday as weak upper-
level ridging begins to build over the region, with warm, humid
air filtering in with it. High temperatures will rise into the
upper 80s with some areas potentially reaching into the 90s.
Though dry conditions are expected to persist, a weak shortwave
looks to eject in across the Tennessee and Kentucky border late
Friday potentially bringing in enough moisture and lift to
produce a few showers in these areas. Though confidence is low
with rain chances <30%. Moving into the weekend, dry and above
normal temperatures will persist as a warm front lifts north, and
weak upper-level ridging remains over the region. Come late
Sunday, ensembles are in decent agreement that southwest flow
will begin building over the region, keeping temperatures above
normal.
Next workweek, confidence continues to increase in a shift to
more of a wet and unsettled weather pattern as upper-level
southwest flow remains over the region and long range models
continue to hint at weak upper-level troughing building east from
the northern Rockies. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin
to increase mid afternoon Monday and persist through mid-week.
LREF probabilities in 500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 30 kts of bulk wind
shear remain very meager Tuesday, <15% as there is not much of a
synoptic response and much of the instability gets displaced
northwest of our area. More defined details will be ironed out in
future forecast updates. For now prepare for wet and unsettled
conditions late Monday into at least midweek.
AEH
Another calm night is on display with light north winds at the
surface as we sit on the back side Wednesday's dry cold front.
Thursday will feature cooler temperatures with afternoon highs
spanning the 70s to lower 80s across the Mid-South. Minimum
relative humidity values will be mostly <30% areawide Thursday.
However, fire weather concerns are not anticipated as winds will
remain largely sub 10 mph. Dry and sunny conditions will also
persist Thursday as surface high pressure slides east and upper-
level northwest flow remains over the region.
Temperatures warm pretty drastically come Friday as weak upper-
level ridging begins to build over the region, with warm, humid
air filtering in with it. High temperatures will rise into the
upper 80s with some areas potentially reaching into the 90s.
Though dry conditions are expected to persist, a weak shortwave
looks to eject in across the Tennessee and Kentucky border late
Friday potentially bringing in enough moisture and lift to
produce a few showers in these areas. Though confidence is low
with rain chances <30%. Moving into the weekend, dry and above
normal temperatures will persist as a warm front lifts north, and
weak upper-level ridging remains over the region. Come late
Sunday, ensembles are in decent agreement that southwest flow
will begin building over the region, keeping temperatures above
normal.
Next workweek, confidence continues to increase in a shift to
more of a wet and unsettled weather pattern as upper-level
southwest flow remains over the region and long range models
continue to hint at weak upper-level troughing building east from
the northern Rockies. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin
to increase mid afternoon Monday and persist through mid-week.
LREF probabilities in 500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 30 kts of bulk wind
shear remain very meager Tuesday, <15% as there is not much of a
synoptic response and much of the instability gets displaced
northwest of our area. More defined details will be ironed out in
future forecast updates. For now prepare for wet and unsettled
conditions late Monday into at least midweek.
AEH
Kds86z
Member
Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing a High Risk on June 9 ("6/9"). That would be nice (or "nice", wink, wink, nudge, nudge
).
CheeselandSkies
Member
Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing a High Risk on June 9 ("6/9"). That would be nice (or "nice", wink, wink, nudge, nudge
It would have to feature ample low-level moisture...
notsoencrypted
Member
There have been a couple of tornado warnings this evening as this set of storms has moved across Iowa. Now there's one in Grant County in WI. I'll be curious to see if there's anything for damage reports on these. Mostly hoping that we don't have areas getting smacked repeatedly over the next few days. Though, as someone said in the thread for the next few days, it does seem like Iowa is going to be taking it on the chin.