jackhutwx
Member
I fear that this may provide even more evidence to the idea that "tornado alley" is moving more eastward than the "traditional" alley. now im wondering if itll be more of dixie/midwest threats more than the plains in future years.
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Severe Weather 2026
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
I fear that this may provide even more evidence to the idea that "tornado alley" is moving more eastward than the "traditional" alley. now im wondering if itll be more of dixie/midwest threats more than the plains in future years.
whats going on with Arky? feel like they have had their fair share of naders this year?
KakashiHatake2000
Member
I’m not really sure I’ve heard a mixed bag about this not denying the possibility I’m just neutral about it for instance having to do with the background state and drought eml region also detecting tornadoes better things like that for example
KakashiHatake2000
Member
Arkansas and Kentucky? I think it’s preliminary so might update to add those states not sure
CheeselandSkies
Member
SPC (Broyles) now highlights days 5 and 6 (Saturday-Sunday) in parts of the Plains to Midwest. 06Z GFS has perked up a bit in a synoptic sense with a nice digging trough over the West. However the stronger southwest flow still tends to lag off to the west and north of the instability axis, temperature-dewpoint spreads still leave a lot to be desired as far as tornado potential goes across much of the risk area, and verbatim forecast soundings suggest capping might be an issue.
On this particular run, Monday (5/18) looks pretty good with some stronger 500mb flow finally ejecting out over the warm sector in OK/KS, some more time for moisture return leading to narrower spreads, and a 995mb surface low sitting in the OK panhandle by 0Z Tuesday. It actually looks not too dissimilar from the setup exactly one year prior. Of course, it's 162 hours out and that's just one run of one model.
On this particular run, Monday (5/18) looks pretty good with some stronger 500mb flow finally ejecting out over the warm sector in OK/KS, some more time for moisture return leading to narrower spreads, and a 995mb surface low sitting in the OK panhandle by 0Z Tuesday. It actually looks not too dissimilar from the setup exactly one year prior. Of course, it's 162 hours out and that's just one run of one model.
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DanLarsen34
Member
I wonder if or when we get our first high risk caliber event this year. Maybe Late May into June gives us one, but I have a sneaking suspicion that if we get one, it may be during the second season instead?
I'm honestly ready to accept 2026 as a year without a High risk. Even if an event shapes up that very well could warrant a high risk, the fact that twice this year we've had major events go kaput the day of (especially 4/27, which looked especially clear cut after the then failure mode of the morning convection resolved itself) might lead the SPC to be more on the conservative side.
Weatherguyx
Member
CheeselandSkies
Member
This time, I'll give him that things are getting a bit more interesting. The 06Z GEFS has an extended period of lowered heights over the west into the Plains starting around or after this coming weekend, coincident with the SPC highlights I mentioned in my earlier post, and beyond.
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tennessee storm chaser
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Would not suprise me see high risk later in summer for a derecho wind Driven event , once nw flow sets up
KakashiHatake2000
Member
Sharpy
Member
If this trend holds, primary severe weather season in Alabama as it pertains to March-May might go out like a lamb. I hope so, I won’t complain.
Central Ohio Wx
Member
Wouldn't be too surprised to see a cycle, that things got a healthy meso
Not gonna lie, that strikes me as an odd decision. Not saying the NAM doesn't suck, but with how much the RRFS over-convects and overdoes helicity, I'm not sure that it's an improvement. And replacing HREF/SREF with it just seems like a downgrade-and-a-half. Reducing the number of tools can be good, but only if the new ones don't stink at their only job.
Well darn. No more 843mb super category 5 hurricanes again in the Atlantic off the 3km NAM
CheeselandSkies
Member
Don't worry, we still have the HAFS for that (seems to vary from system to system whether it's the A or B member that goes nuts).
True, but thankfully, the HAFS doesn't do it each run