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Severe Weather 2026

KakashiHatake2000 said:
I remember that day dec 9th 2023 ef3 in Clarksville and also ef2 in Nashville metro area had a pds tornado warning and also tornado emergency for that caused that explosion when it hit a electric grid was a horrible night evening went out for a graduation looked up I think partly cloudy or sunny didn’t think of anything about it slight risk day also started paying attention while at a restaurant during coverage of the Clarksville tornado and afterwards walking around visiting small shops looking at social media so i now stay weather aware because of it also got a noaa weather radio
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Oh yikes @KakashiHatake2000
 
TheSuckZone said:
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Unfortunately, I don't think people will stop parking under overpasses even if Moore '99 repeats itself and a tornado causes fatalities at one or more overpasses...

I think it's just driven by a natural human/survival instinct to seek some kind of permanent shelter in adverse weather. Most of the general public doesn't know about the dangers of overpasses in tornadoes, and when they see a concrete bridge, it looks "warm and safe" compared to the surroundings. That instinct to have SOMETHING sturdy over your head, whether it's safe or not in actuality, kicks in.
 
TH2002 said:
Unfortunately, I don't think people will stop parking under overpasses even if Moore '99 repeats itself and a tornado causes fatalities at one or more overpasses...

I think it's just driven by a natural human/survival instinct to seek some kind of permanent shelter in adverse weather. Most of the general public doesn't know about the dangers of overpasses in tornadoes, and when they see a concrete bridge, it looks "warm and safe" compared to the surroundings. That instinct to have SOMETHING sturdy over your head, whether it's safe or not in actuality, kicks in.
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Yep, exactly. And most people are going to be thinking about hail.

I do think there should be more public education about the dangers of this, since blocking roads in poor visibility is dangerous even without throwing severe weather into the mix, but with people getting news and information from such disparate sources these days, it's tough to do public education campaigns that reach a wide variety of folks.

Edit: Maybe billboards? "Keep underpasses clear! [Image of underpass] This isn't a parking ramp."
 
JPWX said:
While there's not much of a correlation between El Nino and uptick tornadic activity, it simply can go either way. However, I do note that Fall severe weather seasons the last few years have been quite inactive (outside of notable events such as December 2021), so given that, I can see where this upcoming Fall breaks that trend.
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That’s why I think we’re a bit due for a more active second season this year. 2021 went nuts in December, but it’s been the exception as you highlighted.

The last time we had a really active second season that wasn’t carried by one month going nuts was 2015. That year featured a major tornado outbreak in the panhandle of Texas in November, then featured what I think was the most active December on record until 2021 (I don’t recall if 2021 surpassed it in tornadoes overall, but it may have because of the sneaky December 15 event in Iowa that nearly shattered the single day all-time record with 120 tornadoes).
 
Weatherguyx said:
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Weatherguyx said:
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Reed being Reed...and never heard of this other guy. Yes you might finally get a slight dip in the height contours over the West later in the month, but the flow across the Plains remains quite weak on the EPS. At least the ridging isn't quite as pronounced as on the CFS. There might be some subtle/mesoscale opportunities out there but nothing that screams highly active or outbreak sequence. Certainly not a huge area of "above to much above average" activity over the entire central CONUS.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Reed being Reed...and never heard of this other guy. Yes you might finally get a slight dip in the height contours over the West later in the month, but the flow across the Plains remains quite weak on the EPS. At least the ridging isn't quite as pronounced as on the CFS. There might be some subtle/mesoscale opportunities out there but nothing that screams highly active or outbreak sequence. Certainly not a huge area of "above to much above average" activity over the entire central CONUS.
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This is absolutely Reed wishcasting an active May at this point. Especially after the first two weeks were zilch for tornados.

I’m actually more bullish on June at this point.

Edit: need to amend on the zilch part. I was talking about the Plains and not the Mississippi outbreak a few days ago.
 
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notsoencrypted said:
Yep, exactly. And most people are going to be thinking about hail.

I do think there should be more public education about the dangers of this, since blocking roads in poor visibility is dangerous even without throwing severe weather into the mix, but with people getting news and information from such disparate sources these days, it's tough to do public education campaigns that reach a wide variety of folks.

Edit: Maybe billboards? "Keep underpasses clear! [Image of underpass] This isn't a parking ramp."
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That's another good point. When hail comes down, people want to protect their 2023 Ford F6950 or Tesla Cyber420, for various reasons. People don't want to deal with fixing hail dents or cracked windshields, or don't want to drive around like that.

To those people, it's more of a protective instinct than a survival one. But the underlying point is still the same: most people don't know the dangers of parking under overpasses in tornadoes.
 
ColdFront said:
This is absolutely Reed wishcasting an active May at this point. Especially after the first two weeks were zilch for tornados.

I’m actually more bullish on June at this point.
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What’s June looking like? I remember Trey’s video going over June in the analog years being particularly active, but that’s about it.
 
ColdFront said:
This is absolutely Reed wishcasting an active May at this point. Especially after the first two weeks were zilch for tornados.
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Teed Rimmer
teedrimmer.png

(sorry Reed...)
 
Well, the way I see it, the Deep South is gonna have another above normal precip as well as cooler Summer. This has been a trend the last few years
 
JPWX said:
Well, the way I see it, the Deep South is gonna have another above normal precip as well as cooler Summer. This has been a trend the last few years
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I will gladly welcome a summer with slightly-less-than-face-melting temperatures, so I see this as an absolute win.
 
slenker said:
What’s June looking like? I remember Trey’s video going over June in the analog years being particularly active, but that’s about it.
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For starters, I’m awful with Teleconnections. I understand El Niño, La Niña, and some points about TNI. So I supplement that “non-knowledge” with others lol. This view is just a combination of Trey’s analogs, but also opinions by Eric Webb on Twitter. I’d definitely recommend checking him out. He can be an acquired taste, and he has his flaws (which most Twitter prognosticators have, like an inability to admit when they’re wrong), but I do trust his opinions because his masters thesis specifically focused on ENSO.
 
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