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Severe Weather 2026

Very interesting, but after screaming around the globe, the MJO has completely stalled out in phase 2. (All these images are directly embeded from their sources so if the values change it's because these are live graphics)

rmm.phase.Last40days.gif


To go along with that, SST anomalies have cooled by almost .3 degrees to +0.64 in the central pacific.

nino34.png


And the TNI value (Nino 1+2 minus Nino 4) has gone from near zero to 0.52.

nino12.png
nino4.png


This is 100% conjecture, but maybe it's all related somehow. Especially TNI values, which grew drastically in the same period that the MJO stalled out. I know the MJO affects rainfall anomalies in different regions, so maybe the position impacts SSTs with precipitation and cloud cover, and certain phases are associated with temperature gradients across the Pacific in a way that impacts severe weather in the US.
 
Had a fair number of supercells in Oklahoma today. Wasn't (and wasn't expected to be, due to limited moisture among other things) a big tornado day, but at least something for the chasers to do. Similar setup tomorrow, and then a 30% contour (apparently doesn't trigger an Enhanced risk without at least a level-1 CIG) mainly for a potential wind event in Texas on Sunday.
 




Got 5% tornado hatch.

WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK SATURDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE INFLUX OF GREATER, BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT. THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE DEGREE OF EVENING
MOISTENING THAT OCCURS, WITH THE RAP REMAINING NOTABLY DRIER THAN
THE NAM. SHOULD THE NAM SCENARIO BE CLOSER TO CORRECT, TORNADO
POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH ANY SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OK. AN 5% UNCONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY AND CONDITIONAL-INTENSITY GROUP 1 HAVE BEEN ADDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.
 
The Mid-South region is well overdue for a high end MCS/Derecho event.
 
ThatGuy;P said:
I’m quite interested to see how the second half of 2026 progresses in terms of tornadoes. 2025 was full force from March to June and then nothing much afterwards.
Is it possible that this year’s El Niño conditions lead to more tornadoes in the cold season?
Click to expand...
While there's not much of a correlation between El Nino and uptick tornadic activity, it simply can go either way. However, I do note that Fall severe weather seasons the last few years have been quite inactive (outside of notable events such as December 2021), so given that, I can see where this upcoming Fall breaks that trend.
 
I
JPWX said:
While there's not much of a correlation between El Nino and uptick tornadic activity, it simply can go either way. However, I do note that Fall severe weather seasons the last few years have been quite inactive (outside of notable events such as December 2021), so given that, I can see where this upcoming Fall breaks that trend.
Click to expand...
I have been wondering if El Niño means an active fall/winter tornado season.

Remember that Tennessee tornado outbreak a few December’s ago?
 
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