Significant Tornado Events - Global Edition

What in the actual hell am I seeing in model data for the western Persian Gulf on Thursday?

andyhb said:

What in the actual hell am I seeing in model data for the western Persian Gulf on Thursday?

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UH, what? That is a very high end profile for this region.

andyhb said:

What in the actual hell am I seeing in model data for the western Persian Gulf on Thursday?

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Extremely good setup in a place that definitely needs it... Dunno if you could find a better spot for a tornado outbreak right now...

Looks like a tornado already has been confirmed on the day before the main event.

There are a few damage photos of the 1913 South Wales, UK tornado that makes me think it could've reached low-end IF4 intensity. Multiple buildings with thick brick walls were largely, or in some cases mostly destroyed that I believe could achieve sturdiness 'E' on the IF scale with damage indicator '1B' (partial destruction) that would result in an IF4 rating. The following photos are locations where I think (low-end) IF4 intensity might've been reached.
Fairview Terrace, Abercynon:

Beechgrove Farm, Edwardsville:

Beechgrove Chapel, Edwardsville:

Given that American svr WX is on the below range, perhaps I could introduce a window on this thread to discuss European svr wx!

A weak tornado threat may set up with a broken band of storms in SW Spain on Tuesday. The environment is not really high shear, low CAPE but with around 110 0-1km SRH and 600 CAPE, it doesn't take much for these little bands to at least rotate and put down a weak tornado.

Limiting factors may be a stout warm nose aloft that could potentially weaken convection plenty and cause near no real svr threat to exist. A isolated damaging wind threat may also develop dependant on if the mode is more linear. Trends suggest maybe more of a broken line so confidence would be a bit more limited in this threat as a whole. You'd probably need stronger forcing in this case to prevent low topped cells not getting fully ripped apart.

We will see, this is the only real interesting threat in the window atm over here.

WeathermanLeprechaun said:

Given that American svr WX is on the below range, perhaps I could introduce a window on this thread to discuss European svr wx!

A weak tornado threat may set up with a broken band of storms in SW Spain on Tuesday. The environment is not really high shear, low CAPE but with around 110 0-1km SRH and 600 CAPE, it doesn't take much for these little bands to at least rotate and put down a weak tornado.

Limiting factors may be a stout warm nose aloft that could potentially weaken convection plenty and cause near no real svr threat to exist. A isolated damaging wind threat may also develop dependant on if the mode is more linear. Trends suggest maybe more of a broken line so confidence would be a bit more limited in this threat as a whole. You'd probably need stronger forcing in this case to prevent low topped cells not getting fully ripped apart.

We will see, this is the only real interesting threat in the window atm over here.

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Here is the generated ASTORP ( A new automated severe convective weather forecasting system based on the GEFS) forecast for Tuesday.

TornadoesUK said:

Here is the generated ASTORP ( A new automated severe convective weather forecasting system based on the GEFS) forecast for TuesdayView attachment 52532View attachment 52533View attachment 52534.
View attachment 52535

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Yeah, this is what I've been using to determine these threats! Really nice tool

High end environment for severe weather ongoing across portions of South Central China. Interestingly enough, nothing has convected at all in this warm sector and I'm convinced it might be the result of a stout remnant warm nose + dry slot. These environments can be increasingly hostile to CI.

Potentially even GFS overestimating buoyancy? Might be a factor because this sounding would support updrafts developing, but i do notice increasingly weaker lapse rates well aloft. Decent environment for a significant tornado threat but the devil is in the details. Not over yet for certain.

A possible wedge tornado was observed last night, 4/11, in the municipality of Nanawa, just west of Asunción, the Paraguayan capital with a population of 2 million.

Conditions were favorable for its formation, thanks to the typical nocturnal activation of a strong low-level jet.

Um tornado deixou quatro pessoas feridas na Argentina hoje.

FelipeFreitas said:

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Has this tornado been officially rated? The damage seems potentially violent tier.

buckeye05 said:

Has this tornado been officially rated? The damage seems potentially violent tier.

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I believe it has been estimated to be around F2 - but I think its likely at least a high end F3 https://cdnoticias.com/index.php/20...zonas-rurales-y-aseguran-que-fue-de-nivel-f2/

A rare tornado outbreak occurred in the Middle East on May 3, 2026. This event resulted in anywhere from 10-15 tornadoes across Cyprus, Türkiye (Turkey) and Syria, depending on how many of the paths are combined.

The first tornado (rated IF1) damaged roofs in the village of Sınırüstü in northern Cyprus: https://kıbrıspress.com/sinirustu-koyunde-hortum-dehseti-iskele-belediyesi-teyakkuzda-h13470.html

The second tornado touched down in Ajjasza, Syria, causing significant damage as it uprooted and defoliated trees in an orchard, snapped power poles and blew down masonry walls. It crossed into Turkey and hit the village of Çangallı, where it caused further damage. The path length was 7 km, and the damage was rated IF2.


The rest of the tornadoes touched down in Türkiye, including Tornado 3 which caused major damage in Akçamezra. Although the ESWD rated it IF2, I firmly believe it pushed F3 status, based on one home that lost its roof and 50% of its upper floor, and another masonry building (not sure if it was a home or other structure) that was almost completely leveled. While a path length is yet to be determined, the twister remained on the ground for possibly a mile and a half to two miles. Near the village of Kayacık, the twister struck and overturned a vehicle, injuring two people inside.

some more photos in this article: https://www.haber7.com/foto-galeri/...n-85-yasindaki-kadin-yasadigi-dehseti-anlatti

Tornado 4 (IF1.5) downed trees and a metal road sign, as well as heavily damaged roofs in Oğuzeli. One person was injured.


Tornado 5 (IF2) damaged or destroyed many panels at a solar farm in Aşağıkoçlu: https://www.sanliurfagazetesi.com/sanliurfanin-o-ilcesi-karanliga-gomuldu-hasar-buyuk

Tornado 6 struck Yukarı Yazıcı, a small farming community. While some buildings sustained roof damage, a barn and farmhouse were reportedly completely leveled. The ESWD currently has the rating at IF2, but notes said rating has a high degree of uncertainty.


Tornado 7 caused severe damage in the village of Malta in Viranşehir County. Houses and other structures were badly damaged, including loss of roofs and exterior walls, but the report is incomplete. The ESWD currently has the rating at IF2.5. Either the same tornado, or a weaker tornado from the same supercell, caused minor damage in Ayaklı.


Tornado 8 struck Viranşehir proper, hitting a small industrial area on the east side of town. Warehouses were badly damaged or destroyed, as were solar panels at another solar farm. Four people were injured. ESWD rates this tornado IF2, but mentions the rating may be upgraded.



Will have to split this into two parts, so stay tuned...

TH2002 said:

A rare tornado outbreak occurred in the Middle East on May 3, 2026. This event resulted in anywhere from 10-15 tornadoes across Cyprus, Türkiye (Turkey) and Syria, depending on how many of the paths are combined.

The first tornado (rated IF1) damaged roofs in the village of Sınırüstü in northern Cyprus: https://kıbrıspress.com/sinirustu-koyunde-hortum-dehseti-iskele-belediyesi-teyakkuzda-h13470.html

The second tornado touched down in Ajjasza, Syria, causing significant damage as it uprooted and defoliated trees in an orchard, snapped power poles and blew down masonry walls. It crossed into Turkey and hit the village of Çangallı, where it caused further damage. The path length was 7 km, and the damage was rated IF2.


The rest of the tornadoes touched down in Türkiye, including Tornado 3 which caused major damage in Akçamezra. Although the ESWD rated it IF2, I firmly believe it pushed F3 status, based on one home that lost its roof and 50% of its upper floor, and another masonry building (not sure if it was a home or other structure) that was almost completely leveled. While a path length is yet to be determined, the twister remained on the ground for possibly a mile and a half to two miles. Near the village of Kayacık, the twister struck and overturned a vehicle, injuring two people inside.

some more photos in this article: https://www.haber7.com/foto-galeri/...n-85-yasindaki-kadin-yasadigi-dehseti-anlatti

Tornado 4 (IF1.5) downed trees and a metal road sign, as well as heavily damaged roofs in Oğuzeli. One person was injured.


Tornado 5 (IF2) damaged or destroyed many panels at a solar farm in Aşağıkoçlu: https://www.sanliurfagazetesi.com/sanliurfanin-o-ilcesi-karanliga-gomuldu-hasar-buyuk

Tornado 6 struck Yukarı Yazıcı, a small farming community. While some buildings sustained roof damage, a barn and farmhouse were reportedly completely leveled. The ESWD currently has the rating at IF2, but notes said rating has a high degree of uncertainty.


Tornado 7 caused severe damage in the village of Malta in Viranşehir County. Houses and other structures were badly damaged, including loss of roofs and exterior walls, but the report is incomplete. The ESWD currently has the rating at IF2.5. Either the same tornado, or a weaker tornado from the same supercell, caused minor damage in Ayaklı.

Tornado 8 struck Viranşehir proper, hitting a small industrial area on the east side of town. Warehouses were badly damaged or destroyed, as were solar panels at another solar farm. Four people were injured. ESWD rates this tornado IF2, but mentions the rating may be upgraded.

Will have to split this into two parts, so stay tuned...

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This is like the fourth impressive foreign tornado event this year. Also believe the recent Argentina tornado produced f5 grade contextuals.

(part 2...)
One to three tornadoes (counting in this entry as Tornado 9) struck the towns of Kadıköy, Kalmazlar and Subaşı. The ESWD has still not determined if these three tornadoes were all a single tornado, or perhaps two tornadoes. Regardless, all entries are rated IF2. Eight people were injured in Kadıköy, and four more in Subaşı. My best guess is that Kalmazlar was hit by a separate tornado while the other two villages were hit by the same twister, but we don't know for sure yet.
Some damage photos from Kadıköy:



Kalmazlar:


Haven't seen any from Subaşı.

Tornado 10 (IF2) remained on the ground for 7 km, striking the villages of Çatmadal, Gümüştaş and Harabe. Trees and power poles were snapped, solar panels were detached from their mounts and thrown, and roofs were torn off buildings, with some damage to exterior walls noted.

The final tornado of the outbreak (Tornado 11) struck the village of Karacadağ, snapping and uprooting trees and power poles, damaging roofs and destroying farm buildings. The ESWD currently has the rating at IF1, pending further review.

Another tornado (possibly a cold air funnel, and unrelated to the Middle Eastern storm system) was spotted near Plailly, north of Paris in France during the outbreak:



All in all, a pretty unprecedented event for the region. Anywhere from 10-15 tornadoes, at least eight of them strong, is quite a remarkable total. In addition, 19 injuries but no fatalities thankfully. Next to no coverage in Western media of this historic event is unfortunate, but sadly expected. Outside of official databases like the ESWD, The Watchers (watchers.news) is really the only news source that reports on events like this, so I recommend checking them out.

On Wednesday, 05/06, a powerful multi-vortex wedge tornado struck the rural area of the municipality of Las Flores, Buenos Aires, Argentina, around 6 p.m. local time:





As I mentioned in my thread on severe weather 2026 (https://talkweather.com/threads/severe-weather-2026.2432/post-206338) unfortunately, no official agency has the resources or is currently undertaking a serious investigation into the trail of destruction and the intensity of this tornado...

But judging by the images, videos, and eyewitness accounts circulating online—from trees stripped of their bark or uprooted and thrown to the ground with their root balls intact and some soil still clinging to them, to torn-down fence posts, overturned or possibly dragged tractors, 90-kg sheep lifted into the air for hundreds of meters as if they were feathers, and this house with 30-cm-thick brick and concrete walls destroyed, injuring its four occupants...







A high-end F3 or F4 classification on the Fujita-Pearson scale is reportedly being considered, pending confirmation.

Also, as I mentioned in my 2026 severe weather thread, if it is confirmed as an F4, it would be the first one recorded in Argentina in eight years, and the first in South America since the tornadoes in Rio Bonito and Guarapuava, Brazil, last year.

The Ajjasza, Syria - Çangallı, Turkey tornado has been upgraded to IF3. The tornado's survey can be found here:

TornadoesUK said:

There are a few damage photos of the 1913 South Wales, UK tornado that makes me think it could've reached low-end IF4 intensity. Multiple buildings with thick brick walls were largely, or in some cases mostly destroyed that I believe could achieve sturdiness 'E' on the IF scale with damage indicator '1B' (partial destruction) that would result in an IF4 rating. The following photos are locations where I think (low-end) IF4 intensity might've been reached.
Fairview Terrace, Abercynon:
View attachment 52510View attachment 52511
Beechgrove Farm, Edwardsville:
View attachment 52514
Beechgrove Chapel, Edwardsville:
View attachment 52515View attachment 52516
View attachment 52517
View attachment 52518

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I actually recently did a “big dig” into this tornado. I agree that it probably reached IF4 intensity. I’ll attach my summary of findings.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1-hhwe4Zyrfzp0wN7KlBoMSpwCUDy39Ki-SlYwLJCQL4/edit?usp=drivesdk