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5/5-5-6 2026 severe threat

00z RRFS doesn't make a bit of sense to me
 
After reviewing the 00z CAM suite, there are a few things I would watch out for tomorrow. While every event is determined by the mesoscale in some way, tomorrow will greatly feel that effect. Most CAMs stall convection that does develop across AR somewhere along the northern two rows of counties in AL/GA by 13z. They then diminish this band and destabilization begins south of the boundary. I would watch where and if this happens, as it could create differential heating/moisture boundary that would serve as a focus for initiation later and locally enlarge/back hodographs in the 0-1 km layer.

In addition, CAMs maintain a weak H85 wind field through most of the afternoon. I would wager, except in vicinity of the aforementioned boundary, initial supercells will be hail/wind threats. However, most CAMs develop a strong 40-50 kt LLJ by 00z from Central MS through North Central GA. This will act to enlarge shear vectors and promote slightly more curvature. I would argue that a more pressing tornado threat (conditional) would begin in this timeframe.

As we know, every CAM is wrong and these are just things to monitor. Could the boundary overconvect? Maybe. Could upper level ridging help suppress convection farther south? Maybe. How will the low level wind fields look by late afternoon/evening? All good questions and failure points that can't be resolved right now. I'm going with a mixed mode, more supercellular in MS/AL, capable of hail/wind swaths and a growing tornado threat late along the C MS- N/C GA corridor. I would hold the 6z as is and readjust based off trends at 13z. I can't wait to be totally wrong by this time tomorrow.
 
00Z WRFs are both in with a scenario that I could see realistically playing out tomorrow afternoon. They have convection initiating much further south than previously modelled, quickly undercutting the environment to the north and limiting the severe potential of the environment within the I-20 vicinity. To be clear, this wouldn't eliminate the threat completely in northern AL/GA, but it would reduce the risk magnitude - think "10% CIG2 tornado" setup versus "2-5% QLCS with one or two embedded tornadoes" setup. Just one set of models, but it's food for thought.
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With tonight's threat so far failing to occur, one wonders what tomorrow's threat may look like.
 
Morning thoughts haven't changed and last night was a big L for me forecasting-wise.

This still looks like a day very ripe for crapvection. Nixon proves a very crucial point by showing PWAT, there's no stubborn EML to prevent crapvection from getting out of hand, it's a very chaotic moist layer, and 00z CAMs follow suite with this. They fire barely ahead of a semi broken line, and in general, the environment is favorable for all hazards but not much else to say otherwise. I'm not seeing the strong tornado threat with this one at all despite kinematics, storm mode is king and today right now just doesn't look optimal to get anything remotely promising up.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
If we can see cloud cover dissipate and some boundaries set up near I 20. I think we see 15% risk for that corridor before the event gets underway
Click to expand...
A lot depends how far the frontal
Boundary moves south and sets up. Currently moving slowly through Tennessee about cleared the state
 
***********The WSR-88D radar (KBMX) serving Central Alabama is currently out of service due to a hardware failure as of 07:05 A.M. this morning.

National Weather Service technicians have been working continuously to diagnose and repair the issue, and replacement parts are being expedited to restore service as quickly as possible.
 
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