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5/5-5-6 2026 severe threat

Kds86z said:
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Interesting tweet. I can spot 2 to 4 supercells just from that map. Also, what does he mean by East to West fronts? (unless he's referring to back door front)
 
JPWX said:
Interesting tweet. I can spot 2 to 4 supercells just from that map. Also, what does he mean by East to West fronts? (unless he's referring to back door front)
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I think he's referring to systems with southwesterly orientation and fairly zonal trough ejection, and expressing his skepticism about the HRRR output, with heaping amounts of Twitter sarcasm. That said, I'm not sure why anyone is expecting something other than mixed-mode, that's very expressly what's forecast for tomorrow - I think he's looking at it from a chasing standpoint for the most part.
 
Clancy said:
I'm much less worried about overconvection than I am underconvection as far as failure modes go. Events in the Southeastern US have a knack for maximizing results even with paltry lapse rates, oversaturated moist layers and modest forcing. On the other hand, there's been plenty of events that critically underperformed because storms didn't fire in a significant way at all. Some prime examples that come to mind are April 2017 and last week's setup. It's no major outbreak material, but I don't think it's anything to sneeze at, either. Even without any discrete OWS convection, the QLCS will cause plenty of straight-line wind problems. GFS, NAM and HRRR have uptrended the strength of the LLJ Wednesday evening over the past few runs by a significant degree, and boundaries tend to be pivotal points of focus in QLCS setups, which there will be plenty of opportunities for tomorrow. At the same time, there's definitely a difference between being in the bullseye versus chasing or watching from home - how we view threat magnitudes and impacts will inevitably vary depending on where we are relative to our convective focus. A point of concern for me, as I think @bckhd2 has mentioned, is our neck of the woods being less experienced with severe weather overall, especially compared to Alabama, and the level of complacency that happens here, especially with it being early May, a time when a lot of people are focused on graduation, sports and outdoor events.
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Ironically, just now seeing this as I’ve spent the last 5 hours on the baseball field. Yes, I was discussing earlier how people in this area believe wholeheartedly in the Atlanta Storm Shield. From talking to people at the park tonight, most are aware there’s rain in the forecast. No real concern paid to storm potential. Got a lot of “it always blows past us, no problem.” I’ll be back on the field at 6pm tomorrow. Hopefully we can get everything done before the weather turns.

Agree that Dixie doesn’t really blink at a messy storm mode. This part of the country always finds a way to maximize whatever parameters they’ve got. Not expecting a major outbreak, but could see 1-2 supercells out ahead of the line and a couple QLCS spinups, especially if there’s embedded supercells. Interested to see FFC’s morning discussion. They’ve been fairly bullish so far considering that office’s track record of barely blinking at severe setups.
 
bckhd2 said:
Ironically, just now seeing this as I’ve spent the last 5 hours on the baseball field. Yes, I was discussing earlier how people in this area believe wholeheartedly in the Atlanta Storm Shield. From talking to people at the park tonight, most are aware there’s rain in the forecast. No real concern paid to storm potential. Got a lot of “it always blows past us, no problem.” I’ll be back on the field at 6pm tomorrow. Hopefully we can get everything done before the weather turns.

Agree that Dixie doesn’t really blink at a messy storm mode. This part of the country always finds a way to maximize whatever parameters they’ve got. Not expecting a major outbreak, but could see 1-2 supercells out ahead of the line and a couple QLCS spinups, especially if there’s embedded supercells. Interested to see FFC’s morning discussion. They’ve been fairly bullish so far considering that office’s track record of barely blinking at severe setups.
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Yep, and it's doubly hard for Atlanta broadcast mets to accurately portray things without people ignoring it. I know there's a lot of back and forth about how much people listen to local news, but folks around my neck of the woods still often do. Best of luck with tomorrow's game, be safe out there!
 
From Broyles/hart
HOWEVER, SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE. IF THIS HAPPENS, THEN SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP AT LITTLE ROCK HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR
75 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 550 M2/S2. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS IF IF CELL COVERAGE
MARKEDLY INCREASES LATE THIS EVENING AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS. UNDER
THIS SCENARIO, NEW WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE WOULD PROBABLY BE NEEDED
TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH.
 
Kds86z said:
From Broyles/hart
HOWEVER, SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE. IF THIS HAPPENS, THEN SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP AT LITTLE ROCK HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR
75 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 550 M2/S2. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS IF IF CELL COVERAGE
MARKEDLY INCREASES LATE THIS EVENING AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS. UNDER
THIS SCENARIO, NEW WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE WOULD PROBABLY BE NEEDED
TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH.
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“IF IF” lol
 
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