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5/5-5-6 2026 severe threat

From treys video. He's worried about OWS supercells tommrow across Mississippi and Alabama.

Says Wednesday will be robust if the OWS supercells like the hrrr hints for tommorow comes to fruiton, he says tommrow "eye brow rasing" not fully confident on this solution yet. But he definitely is watching Closely.
 
New day 2 outlook is out.



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
LOUISIANA ARCROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and
evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys/southern Appalachians. Tornadoes appear most likely from
Mississippi into Alabama. Corridors of damaging winds may occur from
Texas into Georgia.

...Synopsis...
Strong mid to high level winds will intensify across the MS/OH/TN
Valleys on Wednesday as a positive-tilt upper trough moves out of
the Plains. Midlevel winds up to 50 kt will extend as far south as
the Gulf Coast, with 70+ kt sweeping across the TN Valley to the
Appalachians late.

At the surface, a cold front will extend from central TX into
northern MS and AL by 00Z, with a very moist air mass ahead of it.
Dewpoints in the 70s F will be common from TX into MS, with mid 60s
F into western GA by evening. Instability will be greatest from TX
into MS during the day, but will develop eastward across AL and into
western GA due to persistent west/southwest winds in the low levels.

The expansive area of strong deep-layer shear atop the very moist
air mass will support scattered to widespread thunderstorms
beginning late afternoon and spreading during the evening and
overnight. Corridors of tornado and wind damage potential appear
likely, with hail from TX into LA/MS.

...Eastern TX across much of the Southeast...
Early day storms are possible across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA,
possibly elevated due to and e-w outflow. A marginal wind threat
cannot be ruled out at that time.

The primary severe risk will develop during the late afternoon after
21Z and into the early evening, as instability builds. Supercells
may develop along and ahead of the cold front. The deep moist layer
combined with strong mid and high level flow should support
supercell mode with minimal cold downdraft initially. The severe
risk may persist during the evening into GA as the southwesterly
low-level jet brings instability into that area. Corridors of
damaging winds may evolve as well, especially along the cold front
late as storms become more numerous.

Farther west into TX, supercells producing hail and locally damaging
gusts are also likely near the front.
Click to expand...
 
New D2 does a good job of depicting the conditional strong tornado threat, with max threat running from the Arklamiss corridor over to eastern Alabama.
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
LOUISIANA ARCROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and
evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys/southern Appalachians. Tornadoes appear most likely from
Mississippi into Alabama. Corridors of damaging winds may occur from
Texas into Georgia.

...Synopsis...
Strong mid to high level winds will intensify across the MS/OH/TN
Valleys on Wednesday as a positive-tilt upper trough moves out of
the Plains. Midlevel winds up to 50 kt will extend as far south as
the Gulf Coast, with 70+ kt sweeping across the TN Valley to the
Appalachians late.

At the surface, a cold front will extend from central TX into
northern MS and AL by 00Z, with a very moist air mass ahead of it.
Dewpoints in the 70s F will be common from TX into MS, with mid 60s
F into western GA by evening. Instability will be greatest from TX
into MS during the day, but will develop eastward across AL and into
western GA due to persistent west/southwest winds in the low levels.

The expansive area of strong deep-layer shear atop the very moist
air mass will support scattered to widespread thunderstorms
beginning late afternoon and spreading during the evening and
overnight. Corridors of tornado and wind damage potential appear
likely, with hail from TX into LA/MS.

...Eastern TX across much of the Southeast...
Early day storms are possible across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA,
possibly elevated due to and e-w outflow. A marginal wind threat
cannot be ruled out at that time.

The primary severe risk will develop during the late afternoon after
21Z and into the early evening, as instability builds. Supercells
may develop along and ahead of the cold front. The deep moist layer
combined with strong mid and high level flow should support
supercell mode with minimal cold downdraft initially. The severe
risk may persist during the evening into GA as the southwesterly
low-level jet brings instability into that area. Corridors of
damaging winds may evolve as well, especially along the cold front
late as storms become more numerous.

Farther west into TX, supercells producing hail and locally damaging
gusts are also likely near the front.

..Jewell.. 05/05/2026
Click to expand...
A2vMEvM.png
 
KakashiHatake2000 said:
Somebody must have had convective chronicles on at spc
Click to expand...

It's kind of become a running joke in his comments sections this year how often SPC has done a categorical upgrade right after Trey releases his forecast discussion video for that day.
 
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Both 12z WRF runs are bullish on supercells along the i20 corridor from Mississippi into Alabama. Right where SPC highlighted so it's not just the 12z hrrr trey was looking at. Honestly. I would not be surprised for a extension or the 10% tornado risk into more portions of Alabama.
 
Model guidance
continues to show an environment out ahead of the frontal boundary
of 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE, 40-50 kts of effective shear, and low
level helicity of 150-250 m2/s2. A major contributor to these
strong shear values is a screaming southwesterly low level jet
that develops after sunset. Storm modes will likely initially be a
combination of discrete supercells and bowing segments out ahead
of the front in the evening, before merging into an MCS with
potentially embedded supercells overnight. All severe hazards
would be possible in this setup, including damaging winds, large
hail, and a few tornadoes. Given the high shear, a strong tornado
could not be ruled out across north GA if things come together
favorably with a discrete or embedded supercell. As with all
setups like this, there are some factors that could lower the
overall severe threat, like the morning convection across north GA
limiting instability later in the day.

From FFC's 3pm discussion. Interesting to hear them explicitly mention strong tornado potential.
 
bckhd2 said:
Model guidance
continues to show an environment out ahead of the frontal boundary
of 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE, 40-50 kts of effective shear, and low
level helicity of 150-250 m2/s2. A major contributor to these
strong shear values is a screaming southwesterly low level jet
that develops after sunset. Storm modes will likely initially be a
combination of discrete supercells and bowing segments out ahead
of the front in the evening, before merging into an MCS with
potentially embedded supercells overnight. All severe hazards
would be possible in this setup, including damaging winds, large
hail, and a few tornadoes. Given the high shear, a strong tornado
could not be ruled out across north GA if things come together
favorably with a discrete or embedded supercell. As with all
setups like this, there are some factors that could lower the
overall severe threat, like the morning convection across north GA
limiting instability later in the day.

From FFC's 3pm discussion. Interesting to hear them explicitly mention strong tornado potential.
Click to expand...
Very rare coming from them, only a handful of times I can remember them outlining significant tornado risk. We can easily have a 10% hatched risk and all we get from their AFD is "there might be a spin-up tornado."

A couple notes about the latest data out of the HRRR. I see a couple factors that could limit the threat and could also locally enhance it, especially over northeast Alabama and northern Georgia. My main point of focus is possible early day convection. Models diverge on how much convection may be ongoing on the morning, with HRRR showing an ongoing, decaying MCS moving through the AL/TN/GA triple-point in the morning, followed by sequential waves of QLCS storms with embedded supercells. If early-day convection sticks around more or is more substantial than forecast, it could mute the threat, particularly with northward extent. It's really common for cloud cover to linger, even without precipitation, across the foothills of the Appalachians in Georgia, keeping instability at a minimum. That could happen here, and would likely cut off far northern Georgia and much of Tennessee from a more significant threat.

However, I could also see this setting up some boundaries that enhance kinematics in a corridor just north of I-20. That would be a pretty big problem, with Birmingham and Atlanta, two of the biggest metropolitan areas in the Southeast, basically being in prime territory for tornadic supercells, should such a scenario materialize. Possible discrete convection out ahead of the main QLCS Wednesday evening could result in constructive mergers that further encourage tornadogenesis. There's also a possibility that precipitation decays quickly and destabilization occurs all the way into southern Tennessee. However, generally I find that models struggle with handling the evolution of leftover, morning-after storms, like the ones that will probably be ongoing tomorrow morning. Either way, I think the threat is conditional but quite substantial anywhere from Jackson, MS, all the way east through Birmingham to Atlanta.
9LgeTRA.gif
 
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Clancy said:
Very rare coming from them, only a handful of times I can remember them outlining significant tornado risk. We can easily have a 10% hatched risk and all we get from their AFD is "there might be a spin-up tornado."

A couple notes about the latest data out of the HRRR. I see a couple factors that could limit the threat and could also locally-enhance it, especially over northeast Alabama and northern Georgia. My main point of focus is possible early day convection. Models diverge on how much convection may be ongoing on the morning, with HRRR showing an ongoing, decaying MCS moving through the AL/TN/GA triple-point in the morning, followed by sequential waves of QLCS storms with embedded supercells. If early-day convection sticks around more or is more substantial than forecast, it could mute the threat, particularly with northward extent. It's really common for cloud cover to linger, even without precipitation, across the foothills of the Appalachians in Georgia, keeping instability at a minimum. That could happen here, and would likely cut off far northern Georgia and much of Tennessee from a more significant threat.

However, I could also see this setting up some boundaries that enhance kinematics in a corridor just north of I-20. That would be a pretty big problem, with Birmingham and Atlanta, two of the biggest metropolitan areas in the Southeast, basically being in prime territory for tornadic supercells, should such a scenario materialize. Possible discrete convection out ahead of the main QLCS Wednesday evening could result in constructive mergers that further encourage tornadogenesis. There's also a possibility that precipitation decays quickly and destabilization occurs all the way into southern Tennessee. However, generally I find that models struggle with handling the evolution of leftover, morning-after storms, like the ones that will probably be ongoing tomorrow morning. Either way, I think the threat is conditional but quite substantial anywhere from Jackson, MS, all the way east through Birmingham to Atlanta.
Click to expand...
Absolutely agree, to see them actually addressing a potential threat instead of just mentioning there could be high winds isn't a great sign. They did mention towards the end of their discussion that leftover clouds from the morning MCS could be a failure mode if, like you said, the CAD comes into play and keeps cloud cover across the northern half of the state. Also not a good scenario with this coming through in the midnight hours.
 
The 18Z HRRR almost looks like tomorrow could be rougher for Arkansas than today.

What I take away from both days according to the model run is that there's a good chance convection will be largely tied to the main frontal boundaries, like most days this year due to a sub-optimal structure of the system on a synoptic scale. It's a coin flip when these significant tornado threats are tied to sustained OWS convection and/or a storm riding the boundary just right whether they realize it (3/10 Kankakee, 4/23 Enid) or don't (4/27) and messaging these is tough for SPC and the entire weather enterprise and unfortunately they seem to pick the wrong ones to hit hard on more often than not (not faulting them but it just seems to be the way things are going).
 
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