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Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

Thus far, my Tempest has recorded just over 2900 lightning strikes and that is all from today alone. This is by far the highest number of lightning strikes I've recorded within 24 hours shredding the 1027 total recorded on March 9th.
 
Those are some really intense storms with damaging winds and crazy lightning across parts of MS/AL right now. The presence of serial squall lines in such close proximity is rather impressive.
VThzLEf.gif
 
Wind pretty mild here, looks to be stronger a bit to my south; not sure how much is making it to the ground. A good bit of power outages over Fayette County though. Really piling on the rain totals now; three inch storm totals on radar even before the line drops in behind this one
 
Regarding the Monday b*st I'm pretty sure the culprit was 700mb temps. Recall from the Broyles/CC 4/2/25 video that he uses STP-700mb temps to determine significant tornado potential, with a positive value indicating severe potential. When I checked the night before, peak STP was progged as around 6, but 700mb temps were around 9c. Thus, STP-700mb was in the -3 range, which probably should have tipped me off that something was wrong. In general, 9+ c 700mb temps in April will almost never cut it; unless you have a 700mb jet punching straight into the region for an extended period of time, that inversion won't get lifted and cooled enough to get really organized storms (it also didn't help that EBWD was only 35-40kt).

In fact, the only intense tornado of the day likely happened because the 700mb layer was finally cooled sufficiently. Looking at mesoanalysis archive, 9c 700mb temps were widespread across the region south of morning convection. However, around 03-04z the 6c line finally fell south of the MO/AR border, likely allowing those storms to become a little more robust and drop the Mountain View tornado. However, by that point, forcing for ascent had pretty much vanished, and storms quickly became disorganized.



EDIT: After talking with a friend, we concluded it was sort of a chicken or the egg situation. You could also blame forcing, which basically disappeared by 20z or so. 700mb forcing remaining through 00z probably would have amply lifted and cooled the 700mb inversion, dropping 700mb temps into the acceptable range.
 
Last edited:
N0mz said:
Regarding the Monday b*st I'm pretty sure the culprit was 700mb temps. Recall from the Broyles/CC 4/2/25 video that he uses STP-700mb temps to determine significant tornado potential, with a positive value indicating severe potential. When I checked the night before, peak STP was progged as around 6, but 700mb temps were around 9c. Thus, STP-700mb was in the -3 range, which probably should have tipped me off that something was wrong. In general, 9+ c 700mb temps in April will almost never cut it; unless you have a 700mb jet punching straight into the region for an extended period of time, that inversion won't get lifted and cooled enough to get really organized storms (it also didn't help that EBWD was only 35-40kt).

In fact, the only intense tornado of the day likely happened because the 700mb layer was finally cooled sufficiently. Looking at mesoanalysis archive, 9c 700mb temps were widespread across the region south of morning convection. However, around 03-04z the 6c line finally fell south of the MO/AR border, likely allowing those storms to become a little more robust and drop the Mountain View tornado. However, by that point, forcing for ascent had pretty much vanished, and storms quickly became disorganized.



EDIT: After talking with a friend, we concluded it was sort of a chicken or the egg situation. You could also blame forcing, which basically disappeared by 20z or so. 700mb forcing remaining through 00z probably would have amply lifted and cooled the 700mb inversion, dropping 700mb temps into the acceptable range.
Click to expand...


If you go back in the thread, it's not exactly clear if the Mountain view tornado was intense or even signifiacant. Either way good analysis nonetheless.
 
GWX radar has four inch storm totals at the house, lining up with 3.5"+ measured totals a bit to the south. A much more massive punch to the drought than expected; no complaints here other than it'd have been nice to see four inches spread out over the last three weeks instead of within an 18 hour period lol
 
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